Hill Helicopters HX50

[homonculus]

Instead of focusing on delivery, let's focus on milestones

I thought this was supposed to be a production company not a vanity project. Customers put down hard cash to buy a product with a defined delivery time. As a commercial venture to date it is a failure. Lets hope for the best.

[jellycopter]

Originally Posted by homonculus

I thought this was supposed to be a production company not a vanity project. Customers put down hard cash to buy a product with a defined delivery time. As a commercial venture to date it is a failure. Lets hope for the best.

£39 million in non-refundable deposits hardly seems like a commercial failure.

[Pittsextra]

Originally Posted by CGameProgrammerr

Sooner than customer #1290 which is what matters. Also they're funding its development, significantly increasing the likelihood of getting the helicopter at all. People buy Vans kits and don't get to fly it for 10+ years. Instead of focusing on delivery, let's focus on milestones. If they can get an engine completed and running reliably on a test bed this year, I think that would be fantastic.

With VANS filing chapter 11 recently I’m not sure if your choice is deliberate but it likely shows the scale of challenge and why there are sceptical noises

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/...-of-bankruptcy

[Shagpile]

I think it's not fair to compare these. Vans was running its inventory management from an excel spreadsheet. Clearly not a well run business, despite having a great aircraft and strong sales.

[Pittsextra]

Originally Posted by Shagpile

I think it's not fair to compare these. Vans was running its inventory management from an excel spreadsheet. Clearly not a well run business, despite having a great aircraft and strong sales.

and I think you have illustrated the point very well. I don’t know the detail of either VANS aircraft or Hill Helicopters but what I do know very well is that an order book doesn’t necessarily mean or count for much. Selling £10 for £5 will lead to an unhappy end at some point as will other poor business management / administration. Access to capital just gives you a longer piece of rope. From a business perspective the advisors of Hill will at some point suggest - hey why not leverage the healthy order book and sell to a (likely larger entity) new Co. that has the painful task of making all the new stuff work. I’ll have a pound with you that no customer aircraft is in UK skies (and I was going to write 2030) but actually more likely ever still let’s say 2030 at least one of us might collect the quid then!

[hargreaves99]

I think he will get something in the air, ie a hover, in late 2025, then "production will start", and loads more people will give him £50,000 and it will carry on. Kerching.

[[email protected]]

Originally Posted by jellycopter

£39 million in non-refundable deposits hardly seems like a commercial failure.

Depends on how much he has paid out in R and D plus all his other costs.

[Pittsextra]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

I think he will get something in the air, ie a hover, in late 2025, then "production will start", and loads more people will give him £50,000 and it will carry on. Kerching.

All joking aside what is the timeline the company is running to?

[hargreaves99]

Jason Hill, and the website, is still saying deliveries start in 2025.


https://www.hillhelicopters.com/faq?...ters-available

(No running engine yet)

[homonculus]

£39 million in non-refundable deposits hardly seems like a commercial failure.

Surely a commercial success is providing a service or product, not taking in money. I really hope he succeeds as the deposit alone is a significant investment for some but....

[PEASACAKE]

I agree with Pittsextra, from what I understand on the engine after watching every video:

Starter generator manufactured by contractor, awaiting testing on their own test rig.

Every other engine part has yet to be made fit for installing in the first test engine, from impeller, turbine shafts, turbines, exhaust, gearbox, compressor casing, combustion chamber, bleed valve, fuel system, control system, combustion liner, everything is in progress, but nothing made to final design, fit for engine assembly. Even the fuel swirl nozzles have yet to be designed and finalised.

I am in awe of any company designing a new engine from scratch, and especially as Jason talks so confidently as if he has done this before, with such confidence in the engine design and materials and the vertical integration processes.

Engine running in 2025......................if it is I will be very very impressed.

[hargreaves99]

The worrying thing is people are placing deposits thinking that deliveries are starting in 2025 and they will make 500-1,000 a year (as per what is on their website and what Jason has said many times). It's pretty obvious that this is not going to happen.

[206 jock]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

The worrying thing is people are placing deposits thinking that deliveries are starting in 2025 and they will make 500-1,000 a year (as per what is on their website and what Jason has said many times). It's pretty obvious that this is not going to happen.

It is odd, clearly JH is a good selesman as well as being a fabulous engineer, planning consultant, HR guru etc etc, obviously.

I was at an event that JH rocked up to a couple of weeks ago. A couple of people I interacted with were clearly smitten by his presence. I felt like a leper pointing out the barriers to success that Hill face.

[wrench1]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

The worrying thing is people are placing deposits thinking that deliveries are starting in 2025.

Have you ever asked any of the 1200+ people who have placed deposits why they did?
Perhaps your worrying is misplaced...

[[email protected]]

If he had put half as much time and money into developing a hydrogen fuelled electric helicopter, instead of reinventing the dinosaur burning one, he might be described as ground-breaking or cutting edge in 2024.

[hargreaves99]

Originally Posted by wrench1

Have you ever asked any of the 1200+ people who have placed deposits why they did?
Perhaps your worrying is misplaced...

Do you REALLY think deliveries are starting next year? Seriously??

[CGameProgrammerr]

Crab, I hope you're sarcastic, because the idea of a hydrogen-powered helicopter is incredibly stupid. Hydrogen is stored as a highly compressed gas, requiring an extremely heavy fuel tank, and there are zero airports with hydrogen fuel available, obviously, and this is a helicopter intended for private ownership. Not to mention the fact that it would be highly experimental technology. The whole point of the HX50 is that it is practical for private ownership, relatively cheap, and uses existing well-established technologies. Even if it sells for $1 million USD, that would still be a bargain, as that would be in R66 territory but with 407-level performance (albeit VMC-only). Assuming everything works out of course, which it very well might not.

Hargreaves, wrench's point was that investors do not think they'll get an aircraft in 2025 and they're not worrying about that. He's saying they think they'll get a helicopter eventually and are happy to fund its development as well as get a jump-start on their place in line.

[wrench1]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

Do you REALLY think deliveries are starting next year? Seriously??

So, I take your answer to the question is no… you have not talked any of the 1200+ HX50 deposit holders. Because had you talked to them, you would have found that quite a few of them are nowhere near as excited as you are about a 2025 delivery date. For some, there's a lot more to it than a "delivery date."

Originally Posted by [email protected]

If he had put half as much time and money into developing a hydrogen fuelled electric helicopter, instead of reinventing the dinosaur burning one, he might be described as ground-breaking or cutting edge in 2024.

Curious. Can you name one previous "dinosaur" helicopter that was experimental/amateur-built, turbine-powered, that seats 5, with a glass cockpit and a projected 5000hr maintenance cycle? Don't know about you but based on what I've seen over the past 40+ years, I’d say that's pretty much ground-breaking and cutting-edge for 2024.

[Pittsextra]

Originally Posted by wrench1

So, I take your answer to the question is no… you have not talked any of the 1200+ HX50 deposit holders. Because had you talked to them, you would have found that quite a few of them are nowhere near as excited as you are about a 2025 delivery date. For some, there's a lot more to it than a "delivery date."

Curious. Can you name one previous "dinosaur" helicopter that was experimental/amateur-built, turbine-powered, that seats 5, with a glass cockpit and a projected 5000hr maintenance cycle? Don't know about you but based on what I've seen over the past 40+ years, I’d say that's pretty much ground-breaking and cutting-edge for 2024.

not wishing to interrupt arguments elsewhere but couple of points really - deposit being placed… assuming that funding isn’t yielding a return what else is the rationale other than a delivery date because even if you just want to flip your place in the queue it likely is helpful to have a sooner than later place?

well in 2024 we likely still won’t see one flying and therefore even this one will yet to break ground. Peanut gallery aside if you compare an other recent light helicopter from Kopter to Guimbal the timeline / expectations here not withstanding the “kit” nature still seem hugely optimistic and over promising / under delivery will ultimately hurt IMO.

[[email protected]]

CCGame - he is building another helicopter - that's not ground breaking or innovative, the only new thing is that he is getting other people to pay for it.

Wrench 1 - can you name one? HX50 isn't built yet and it looks being a long time before one flies. And an even longer time before anyone actually gets to own one. All the promised specs are just a wish list at the moment.