Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
It is regrettable but understandable that my warnings of wannabe crisis are boring for an ex-military air traffic control officer in his 50's with a secure pension and little in the way of debt. Despite your repeated suggestions that I shut up about it I will ignore you. I feel this is justified by the fact that there are still no signs of a shortage of Wannabes hurling £80,000 at basic flying training courses in total ignorance of their real employment prospects.
You are old and crusty enough Lurking123 to have seen oil spikes, recessions and soaring unemployment before. MANY readers of this forum have not had this experience and it is to those that my general message is addressed.
I'm sure you understand.
WWW
You are old and crusty enough Lurking123 to have seen oil spikes, recessions and soaring unemployment before. MANY readers of this forum have not had this experience and it is to those that my general message is addressed.
I'm sure you understand.
WWW
benish
Its our dream. We want to be in this. We'll get to that point of 'qualified' and then face the struggle.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.
wow benish - if you don't make it as a pilot I'm sure you'll find a career in writing embarrassing speeches about hope - pass me the sick bag please!
We've heard it all before, it's my dream, I'll do anything, I'm going to make it, strive to achieve, whatever it takes. It's standard fluff and doesn't need to be repeated. YAWWWWN! Stop trying to impress us - we wont be interviewing you.
Anyone who works in such a sensitive department as finance who releases information on PPRUNE no matter how old it is, doesn't deserve the job - read your contract. I'm sure there is a section on protecting company information. Some people do make my blood boil. All we can do is pity them. I don't care what you say - it's my opinion. Anyone who takes on a large financial burden now is foolish - and that includes flight training.
It's clear to see some people have no idea when it comes to risk management. Now what industry does that come handy in I wonder? Hmm...
Note: Two years ago (yes, after 9/11) I was 18 working on check-in. I flew up to EDI with an airline from STN for fun, I showed the gate agent my ID and asked if I could board the flight early to go ask the captain if I could jumpseat. I turned up looking smart and the captain took the risk and let me on the jumpseat - I had to wear one of the cabin crew's jackets to make it look like I was a crew member to other pax. Yes I know what you're thinking, foolish skipper? (Well that was his decision not mine) Anyway he said "Let me be the first person to teach you anything about working for an airline. Number 1 rule: Shut the
up and listen". well what a legend he was! - probably taught me the most important rule in the book. There are lots of people who participate in this forum who could use that advice.. it's served me well so far.
For Pete's sake - there are people here offering you advice, they're doing it for free and have no reason to do it other then to want to help you in the long run. Yet, once again, all most of you can do is throw it back in their faces. If you dont like it leave it, don't rip it up and spit it back at them. Grow up a little.
Gahhhh - I'm off to run naked down the road screaming my head off. If you see me say hi!
We've heard it all before, it's my dream, I'll do anything, I'm going to make it, strive to achieve, whatever it takes. It's standard fluff and doesn't need to be repeated. YAWWWWN! Stop trying to impress us - we wont be interviewing you.Anyone who works in such a sensitive department as finance who releases information on PPRUNE no matter how old it is, doesn't deserve the job - read your contract. I'm sure there is a section on protecting company information. Some people do make my blood boil. All we can do is pity them. I don't care what you say - it's my opinion. Anyone who takes on a large financial burden now is foolish - and that includes flight training.
It's clear to see some people have no idea when it comes to risk management. Now what industry does that come handy in I wonder? Hmm...
Note: Two years ago (yes, after 9/11) I was 18 working on check-in. I flew up to EDI with an airline from STN for fun, I showed the gate agent my ID and asked if I could board the flight early to go ask the captain if I could jumpseat. I turned up looking smart and the captain took the risk and let me on the jumpseat - I had to wear one of the cabin crew's jackets to make it look like I was a crew member to other pax. Yes I know what you're thinking, foolish skipper? (Well that was his decision not mine) Anyway he said "Let me be the first person to teach you anything about working for an airline. Number 1 rule: Shut the
up and listen". well what a legend he was! - probably taught me the most important rule in the book. There are lots of people who participate in this forum who could use that advice.. it's served me well so far. For Pete's sake - there are people here offering you advice, they're doing it for free and have no reason to do it other then to want to help you in the long run. Yet, once again, all most of you can do is throw it back in their faces. If you dont like it leave it, don't rip it up and spit it back at them. Grow up a little.
Gahhhh - I'm off to run naked down the road screaming my head off. If you see me say hi!
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Jesus whats all this "dream" bo11ocks? It's a job lads, a nice one, but a job all the same. It's not like you're going to fly your Tiger Moth from an old WWII aerodrome at dawn with the sun creeping through the mist and the sun sparkling on the dew on the grass (better than Barbara Cartland this!).
It's a cut-throat business at times, this dewey-eyed dream malarky is, well, not the real world, honestly.
The FTO's are pi$$ing their pants with laughter and relief at the "dreamers" contributing to their upkeep at the moment. Train by all means, but for christ sake open your eyes and try to time it better. No one is sure when the turn around in job prospects will be but surely it isnt a good time now! Forget flying as this bloody "dream", and see it like other people see careers. Yes it requires training, hang on, it's gonna cost alot of money, will I get a job to pay for that debt and provide a real living after I finish training..........hmmmmm, not the way the job market is, so maybe it's worth hanging fire for a bit.
Or the alternative ending, hmmmmmm not the way the job market is sooooooooooooo, I'LL DO IT ANYWAY, cos it's my dream, forget that common sense lark....
Some of you are acting like daft religious cult members, casting all reason and common sense aside when ordinarily you're probably perfectly sensible people...but mention this "dream" and on come the blinkers......
TIME IT RIGHT LADS, don't be impatient in this horrible job market!
It's a cut-throat business at times, this dewey-eyed dream malarky is, well, not the real world, honestly.
The FTO's are pi$$ing their pants with laughter and relief at the "dreamers" contributing to their upkeep at the moment. Train by all means, but for christ sake open your eyes and try to time it better. No one is sure when the turn around in job prospects will be but surely it isnt a good time now! Forget flying as this bloody "dream", and see it like other people see careers. Yes it requires training, hang on, it's gonna cost alot of money, will I get a job to pay for that debt and provide a real living after I finish training..........hmmmmm, not the way the job market is, so maybe it's worth hanging fire for a bit.
Or the alternative ending, hmmmmmm not the way the job market is sooooooooooooo, I'LL DO IT ANYWAY, cos it's my dream, forget that common sense lark....
Some of you are acting like daft religious cult members, casting all reason and common sense aside when ordinarily you're probably perfectly sensible people...but mention this "dream" and on come the blinkers......
TIME IT RIGHT LADS, don't be impatient in this horrible job market!
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"Were all immature school leavers then?! I admit I've just left 6th form. i studied economics I know all about recessions and inflation and the lark so I can make my own decision about finances thanks, oh and with the help of my mother who works in finance, and my grandfather who was a CEO at a large finance company, they can help me to plan out financial arrangements. And I've worked also. In an airport in fact. Get to speak to alot of people find out alot of stuff. Its not too glim at the moment!"......
Wow well I bow before your vast amount of work experience (what were you doing at the airport.... cleaning??)... and if your grandfather is so financially astute perhaps you should get him to read this thread and see what he thinks of people getting very very heavily into debt at the moment chasing a "dream" with no job at the end of it for at least 2-3 years..... I think at best he would tell you to wait (like most people on here... or did he once run Northern Rock??..hmmmm )... so get him to read it.... or are you worried he will then call you a numpty as well??
P.S. If you have done economics A-level (for what that is worth these days) and you can't see the current mess the economy is in then it is clearly true that the dumbing down of the UK edication system has rendered these qualifications largely worthless.
Wow well I bow before your vast amount of work experience (what were you doing at the airport.... cleaning??)... and if your grandfather is so financially astute perhaps you should get him to read this thread and see what he thinks of people getting very very heavily into debt at the moment chasing a "dream" with no job at the end of it for at least 2-3 years..... I think at best he would tell you to wait (like most people on here... or did he once run Northern Rock??..hmmmm )... so get him to read it.... or are you worried he will then call you a numpty as well??
P.S. If you have done economics A-level (for what that is worth these days) and you can't see the current mess the economy is in then it is clearly true that the dumbing down of the UK edication system has rendered these qualifications largely worthless.
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Easyjet annual profit falls 45%
Budget airline Easyjet has seen its annual profits fall because of higher fuel costs, despite carrying 17.3% more passengers over the year.
BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet annual profit falls 45%
Oil prices rise on US output data
Oil prices have risen after surprisingly good US industrial output figures and warnings of cold weather heading for the US northeast.
US light, sweet crude rose to $58.16 a barrel, having fallen to $55.29 earlier on Monday.
Brent crude rose to $54.13, having fallen to $52.84 earlier in the day.
US light, sweet crude rose to $58.16 a barrel, having fallen to $55.29 earlier on Monday.
Brent crude rose to $54.13, having fallen to $52.84 earlier in the day.
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Quote
,Its our dream. We want to be in this. We'll get to that point of 'qualified' and then face the struggle.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.,
With that kind of thinking you may find you dont get through the aptitude/personality test for the airlines but sail through any for the large FTO's
,Its our dream. We want to be in this. We'll get to that point of 'qualified' and then face the struggle.
But I'd rather be quailified and in debt with a chance of doing my dream job than just sat on my arse dreaming.,
With that kind of thinking you may find you dont get through the aptitude/personality test for the airlines but sail through any for the large FTO's
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It is quite instructive that nobody knew how bad this recession was going to become, and with current forecasts people would be foolish to start any training in the immediate present.
Let me give you an insight into how terrible finance has become - this of course flows down to the real economy through financing companies and driving demand through wages paid:
- Citi announced cuts for 20% of their global workforce (75,000) people yesterday: this is after having cut 10% a couple of time this year alread
- RBS cuts 3,000 people - think of all the demand on the EDI - LON routes that has evapourated
- HBOS / Lloyds - think of the coming cuts, and the elimination of much travel Scotland - England
- Lehman - gone - tens of thousands cut and no longer travelling
- BT - 10,000 gone - many contractors no longer required and no longer travelling
- €uro and dollar rates - overseas spending is now far more expensive for all in the UK - marginal passengers will now decide not to travel
- BoA / ML - think of the coming cuts - two global banks merging and eliminating duplication in all manner of areas
If you think that the above will not lead to fewer flights and fewer jobs for at least 2-3 years, you would be mad.
Finally, note that fuel consumption in the US - the home of the motor car - has fallen 10% in a year. People are sitting at home; people are not travelling; people are not spending money on holiday.
Welcome to the real world.
Let me give you an insight into how terrible finance has become - this of course flows down to the real economy through financing companies and driving demand through wages paid:
- Citi announced cuts for 20% of their global workforce (75,000) people yesterday: this is after having cut 10% a couple of time this year alread
- RBS cuts 3,000 people - think of all the demand on the EDI - LON routes that has evapourated
- HBOS / Lloyds - think of the coming cuts, and the elimination of much travel Scotland - England
- Lehman - gone - tens of thousands cut and no longer travelling
- BT - 10,000 gone - many contractors no longer required and no longer travelling
- €uro and dollar rates - overseas spending is now far more expensive for all in the UK - marginal passengers will now decide not to travel
- BoA / ML - think of the coming cuts - two global banks merging and eliminating duplication in all manner of areas
If you think that the above will not lead to fewer flights and fewer jobs for at least 2-3 years, you would be mad.
Finally, note that fuel consumption in the US - the home of the motor car - has fallen 10% in a year. People are sitting at home; people are not travelling; people are not spending money on holiday.
Welcome to the real world.
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What worries me is the fuel price 
At the moment the world economy is shrinking and thus less demand so low oil price but where will the fuel price end up when the upturn begins when we all start using more? the mind boggles..
At the moment the world economy is shrinking and thus less demand so low oil price but where will the fuel price end up when the upturn begins when we all start using more? the mind boggles..
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what gets me is that all the big petrol, avcat, gas companies were so damn quick to ratchet the price of their commodities up when the price was rising, citing the 'horrendous' rise as the ground.
So, how fast have those prices been falling in the light of the crash in oil prices?
Piracy, it seems, is not only restricted to Somalia, it would appear that the pirates in the west wear suits!
Kiddies who wish to partake in this industry of ours take careful note. The service industries are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. Hotel bookings are way down, banking is taking a huge hit, businesses are battening down the hatches. Punters are hording their pennies for the downturn and travelling less. Inflation is no longer the devil, it is his big brother Deflation that is now the spectre on the horizon for the next 2 years. What does all of this have to do with your 'dream' you ask?
Big airlines rely on premium traffic, they are the business people and bankers who travel the world in 1st and business class. Economy passengers may still travel but they don't have particularly survivable margins on them. Why has O'Leary held off his long haul operation for so long? There is little mark-up.
If the premium traffic doesn't fly then the airlines will route capacity shrink. If the major LH routes shrink the feeder routes will shrink. The airlines will shrink. Large national carriers will contract. SH feeder airlines will go bust. It is happening already. The up swing, when it comes and it surely will in our cyclical industry, will see alot of experienced, low risk, qualified pilots looking for jobs. They will go first. You may bleat that wannabees are cheaper, they are not. These pilots may well be desperate for employment and it will be on the airlines terms. Give another couple of years for that pool to be emptied and then maybe you will see the FTO's starting to feed the airlines again.
I give it 4-5 years.
If you can service the debt for that long, good luck, remember deflation will make that debt bigger over time. If you can't, look for whatever job you can and then try flying again when the up-swing is definitively upon us.
p.s. Don't bleat on Pprune about how depressing it is. Just watch the news or look at a local London newspaper and remember that the City has been sustaining the UK economy as a whole for the last 10 years.
So, how fast have those prices been falling in the light of the crash in oil prices?
Piracy, it seems, is not only restricted to Somalia, it would appear that the pirates in the west wear suits!
Kiddies who wish to partake in this industry of ours take careful note. The service industries are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. Hotel bookings are way down, banking is taking a huge hit, businesses are battening down the hatches. Punters are hording their pennies for the downturn and travelling less. Inflation is no longer the devil, it is his big brother Deflation that is now the spectre on the horizon for the next 2 years. What does all of this have to do with your 'dream' you ask?
Big airlines rely on premium traffic, they are the business people and bankers who travel the world in 1st and business class. Economy passengers may still travel but they don't have particularly survivable margins on them. Why has O'Leary held off his long haul operation for so long? There is little mark-up.
If the premium traffic doesn't fly then the airlines will route capacity shrink. If the major LH routes shrink the feeder routes will shrink. The airlines will shrink. Large national carriers will contract. SH feeder airlines will go bust. It is happening already. The up swing, when it comes and it surely will in our cyclical industry, will see alot of experienced, low risk, qualified pilots looking for jobs. They will go first. You may bleat that wannabees are cheaper, they are not. These pilots may well be desperate for employment and it will be on the airlines terms. Give another couple of years for that pool to be emptied and then maybe you will see the FTO's starting to feed the airlines again.
I give it 4-5 years.
If you can service the debt for that long, good luck, remember deflation will make that debt bigger over time. If you can't, look for whatever job you can and then try flying again when the up-swing is definitively upon us.
p.s. Don't bleat on Pprune about how depressing it is. Just watch the news or look at a local London newspaper and remember that the City has been sustaining the UK economy as a whole for the last 10 years.
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what gets me is that all the big petrol, avcat, gas companies were so damn quick to ratchet the price of their commodities up when the price was rising, citing the 'horrendous' rise as the ground.
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Bit of thread creep but hey ho.
The point was purely that when times are hard with rising commodity prices the oil companies are lightning quick to pass the pain on to the customer. Irrespective of refining, transportation and distribution.
However, with the falling oil price the advantages, however slight, are not being passed on so quickly to the consumer in a time when it is probably most needed. The big oil companies are pulling in profits in excess of £4,000,000 and hour at the moment.
back to the thread.....
The point was purely that when times are hard with rising commodity prices the oil companies are lightning quick to pass the pain on to the customer. Irrespective of refining, transportation and distribution.
However, with the falling oil price the advantages, however slight, are not being passed on so quickly to the consumer in a time when it is probably most needed. The big oil companies are pulling in profits in excess of £4,000,000 and hour at the moment.
back to the thread.....
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This crash is FAR MORE SEVERE than the 1991 crash. The recession that will follow will be FAR MORE SEVERE. You would be an IDIOT not to think that the impact on an industry which has expanded at break neck speed for the past decade would be FAR MORE SEVERE than last time this happened.
Did you get the bit about being FAR MORE SEVERE?
The situation for Wannabes is HOPELESS.
Great big flashing neon lights HOPELESS.
STOP STOP STOP.
WWW
Did you get the bit about being FAR MORE SEVERE?
The situation for Wannabes is HOPELESS.
Great big flashing neon lights HOPELESS.
STOP STOP STOP.
WWW
So ladies and gentlemen that's effectively the end of pprune then.
Wannabes don't start or reply to any posts it's HOPELESS.
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Benish...
Every individual should be free to make their own decision without ridicule or judgement. I think you are intelligent enough to know that this is perhaps not the best time to invest in becoming a pilot from scratch. Many are losing their jobs.
Noone is saying forget about about your dream, only consider postponing to a more prudent time.
Speak to your parents, people who love you unconditionaly for they will have your best interests to heart.
It is also true that our outer world is a relfection of our inner world, no matter the general state of the environment.
However, if you do decide to do it, then do it with open eyes and remember the following:
Quote:
"To accuse others for one's own misfortunes is a sign of
want of education. To accuse oneself shows that
one's education has begun. To accuse neither oneself nor others
shows that one's education is complete."
~~ Epictetus
Noone is saying forget about about your dream, only consider postponing to a more prudent time.
Speak to your parents, people who love you unconditionaly for they will have your best interests to heart.
It is also true that our outer world is a relfection of our inner world, no matter the general state of the environment.
However, if you do decide to do it, then do it with open eyes and remember the following:
Quote:
"To accuse others for one's own misfortunes is a sign of
want of education. To accuse oneself shows that
one's education has begun. To accuse neither oneself nor others
shows that one's education is complete."
~~ Epictetus
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Sorry - I know this is mild thread creep...
Real costs in dollars have fallen - in Sterling, not so. The costs to the consumer are quite competitive, and there is actually little money to be made in retail. The real cash is made upstream in the drilling, extraction and transportation businesses.
You will find that competition in the retailing sector means that price falls at the refiners are passed on very quickly to the consumer: not to mention that the "brands" you see at the pump are less and less owned by the majors themselves these days, and are typically franchises.
However, with the falling oil price the advantages, however slight, are not being passed on so quickly to the consumer in a time when it is probably most needed. The big oil companies are pulling in profits in excess of £4,000,000 and hour at the moment.
You will find that competition in the retailing sector means that price falls at the refiners are passed on very quickly to the consumer: not to mention that the "brands" you see at the pump are less and less owned by the majors themselves these days, and are typically franchises.
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"If you can service the debt for that long, good luck, remember deflation will make that debt bigger over time"
This is the most important comment on this thread for some time.... deflation is a VERY real possibility and if you are heavily in debt as an economy or individual it is nothing short of a disaster..... if deflation takes hold then the upturn may be more than 5 years off.... look at Japan.
Oooops too bearish
This is the most important comment on this thread for some time.... deflation is a VERY real possibility and if you are heavily in debt as an economy or individual it is nothing short of a disaster..... if deflation takes hold then the upturn may be more than 5 years off.... look at Japan.
Oooops too bearish
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Five tips to beat the danger of deflation
With a 20% chance of falling prices setting in, we look at ways for savers to beat the bad news
Five tips to beat the danger of deflation
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I can comment on one of the negative posters on here.
I remember going to a Gatbash in 2002 where WWW and someother chap told us how bad it was and it will never get better and it was all doom and gloom. Basically, if you wanted his job, forget it, you had no hope and should really look for a length of rope, or another career. 9-11 got rid of airtravel for ever.
Then I sat at the same table as him and heard it all again for 2 hrs.
No offence WWW, and you are a nice guy to chat too, but stop being so negative. It will return, air travel will increase, older pliots will retire, RAF will reduce the number availabel to the civilian market, airlines will sponsor less as they have less cash to spend on that, as they need it for capital for aircraft etc etc.
Currently banks are holding on to cash. They HAVE to lend money to make money, and it will come to the point when the suddenly release all the money again. Just look at the USA.
It may not be good now, but if you wait for the boom to train, you will miss it, like so many have. Then airlines will look to reduce training time / costs with the MPL, and we will be back to the time of 2005/6 Then it will go bust again - probably over a spike in oil prices.
Its a cycle. Get over it boys and girls. Just choose if and when you are going to get on
I remember going to a Gatbash in 2002 where WWW and someother chap told us how bad it was and it will never get better and it was all doom and gloom. Basically, if you wanted his job, forget it, you had no hope and should really look for a length of rope, or another career. 9-11 got rid of airtravel for ever.
Then I sat at the same table as him and heard it all again for 2 hrs.
No offence WWW, and you are a nice guy to chat too, but stop being so negative. It will return, air travel will increase, older pliots will retire, RAF will reduce the number availabel to the civilian market, airlines will sponsor less as they have less cash to spend on that, as they need it for capital for aircraft etc etc.
Currently banks are holding on to cash. They HAVE to lend money to make money, and it will come to the point when the suddenly release all the money again. Just look at the USA.
It may not be good now, but if you wait for the boom to train, you will miss it, like so many have. Then airlines will look to reduce training time / costs with the MPL, and we will be back to the time of 2005/6 Then it will go bust again - probably over a spike in oil prices.
Its a cycle. Get over it boys and girls. Just choose if and when you are going to get on