Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Soros shorts UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
George Soros's dad had no interest in making money. His priority was the enjoyment of life, after having been a prisoner of war in Siberia during World War I - or so Soros fils says in his romp of a new book about the credit crunch (which has the unprepossessing title The New Paradigm for Financial Markets).
When I interviewed the hedge fund pioneer last night, I asked him how and why he acquired his voracious appetite for making money.
"Money counts" he said. It gets you what you want. And if he hadn't made his many billions, he doubted he would have been sitting there being interrogated by me.
Well there's no accounting for taste.
More substantively, Soros has been one of the great philanthropists and political activists of our time - whose voice, thanks to his financial clout, has resonated from the New Europe to not-so-new Washington.
There's also a shambolism about his success and aspirations which is highly engaging.
He doesn't for example deny that his most successful investments have been spawned as much by his backaches - brought on by worry about whether his funds were being astutely invested - as by the application of reason.
The book is a totally compelling, well-ordered stream of consciousness, which - by turns - attempts to demolish neo-classical economics, gives a diary of his recent trading performance, and expounds his own philosophy of social science.
His main argument is that the neoclassical postulate that markets tend to equilibrium is nonsense. He founds this view on what he calls the theory of reflexivity, which broadly says that use of scientific methodology in economics is wholly inappropriate, because economic agents cannot avoid influencing the outcomes they forecast.
Academic economists may sneer. But he has become considerably richer than all of them put together by investing according to his own conviction that markets tend to disequilibrium.
I've written before about how he sees the credit crunch as the end of a 25-year superboom poisonously coupled with the collapse of the US housing bubble.
So I will concentrate here on his current prognostications.
There is of course a problem of his own making in giving weight to these predictions, because he can't dignify them as scientifically accurate forecasts for all the reasons given above.
That said his track record as a money maker means they shouldn't be dismissed out of hand (though some will be uneasy that he talks his own trading positions). In 2007, when he took active control of his funds for the first time in years and put his money where his mouth is, he made a return of more 30% (which is no slouch for someone who says that at the age of 77 he doesn't really know how to use the full gamut of modern financial products and techniques).
Here are a smattering of his views:
1) The US is in for a longer and deeper recession than most professional forecasters expect - and that will ultimately lead to a further weakening in the dollar.
2) Prospects for the UK are poor, because of the fragility of our housing market, our personal indebtedness and our dependence on a financial services sector that is heading for bad times. He fears we could be in a worse mess than the US.
3) The longer-term outlook for China is very uncertain. And he would not be surprised if the developing bubble in Chinese markets ended in a financial crisis, though he thinks such a crisis won't happen for a few years yet (if at all).
So the years of onwards and upwards may be behind us. Which may be a shame for those of us yet to make our first billion (unless we're planning to short more-or-less everything outside of Asia and the Middle East).
George Soros's dad had no interest in making money. His priority was the enjoyment of life, after having been a prisoner of war in Siberia during World War I - or so Soros fils says in his romp of a new book about the credit crunch (which has the unprepossessing title The New Paradigm for Financial Markets).
When I interviewed the hedge fund pioneer last night, I asked him how and why he acquired his voracious appetite for making money.
"Money counts" he said. It gets you what you want. And if he hadn't made his many billions, he doubted he would have been sitting there being interrogated by me.
Well there's no accounting for taste.
More substantively, Soros has been one of the great philanthropists and political activists of our time - whose voice, thanks to his financial clout, has resonated from the New Europe to not-so-new Washington.
There's also a shambolism about his success and aspirations which is highly engaging.
He doesn't for example deny that his most successful investments have been spawned as much by his backaches - brought on by worry about whether his funds were being astutely invested - as by the application of reason.
The book is a totally compelling, well-ordered stream of consciousness, which - by turns - attempts to demolish neo-classical economics, gives a diary of his recent trading performance, and expounds his own philosophy of social science.
His main argument is that the neoclassical postulate that markets tend to equilibrium is nonsense. He founds this view on what he calls the theory of reflexivity, which broadly says that use of scientific methodology in economics is wholly inappropriate, because economic agents cannot avoid influencing the outcomes they forecast.
Academic economists may sneer. But he has become considerably richer than all of them put together by investing according to his own conviction that markets tend to disequilibrium.
I've written before about how he sees the credit crunch as the end of a 25-year superboom poisonously coupled with the collapse of the US housing bubble.
So I will concentrate here on his current prognostications.
There is of course a problem of his own making in giving weight to these predictions, because he can't dignify them as scientifically accurate forecasts for all the reasons given above.
That said his track record as a money maker means they shouldn't be dismissed out of hand (though some will be uneasy that he talks his own trading positions). In 2007, when he took active control of his funds for the first time in years and put his money where his mouth is, he made a return of more 30% (which is no slouch for someone who says that at the age of 77 he doesn't really know how to use the full gamut of modern financial products and techniques).
Here are a smattering of his views:
1) The US is in for a longer and deeper recession than most professional forecasters expect - and that will ultimately lead to a further weakening in the dollar.
2) Prospects for the UK are poor, because of the fragility of our housing market, our personal indebtedness and our dependence on a financial services sector that is heading for bad times. He fears we could be in a worse mess than the US.
3) The longer-term outlook for China is very uncertain. And he would not be surprised if the developing bubble in Chinese markets ended in a financial crisis, though he thinks such a crisis won't happen for a few years yet (if at all).
So the years of onwards and upwards may be behind us. Which may be a shame for those of us yet to make our first billion (unless we're planning to short more-or-less everything outside of Asia and the Middle East).
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Fuel suppliers demand airlines pay cash in advance
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4004371.ece
Airlines are being forced to pay cash in advance for jet fuel as the major oil companies tighten the screws on an industry that is being crushed by an extraordinary surge in the price of crude oil.
Sources within the airline industry indicate that credit is being denied to most of the leading American carriers and the practice is moving to Europe and Asia. So uncertain is the cash solvency of the industry that jet fuel suppliers insist on prepayments into special bank accounts.
A credit controller at a leading European multinational oil company told The Times that the oil industry was moving to jet fuel prepayment. “It’s common in the US and it is moving to Europe. We have been moving to prepayment since Swissair went bust.”
The need to put up money before delivery of fuel is a huge financial burden that has been shifted from the oil companies to the airlines. According to John Armbrust, a US jet fuel consultant, the oil industry had $5 billion (£2.5 billion) of jet fuel credit outstanding to airlines before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Now they are demanding that airlines leave cash on deposit.
“The airlines can’t afford it. Traditionally, oil companies extended credit for 14 or 21 days and some as long as 30 days. Now, most American airlines are on prepay. South West is one of a few likely to still get credit.”
The extent of the cash squeeze was highlighted last week when American Airlines said that it would charge $15 per bag checked even as it revealed plans to shed 75 aircraft, shrinking the airline’s capacity by 12 per cent.
The price of jet fuel has risen by 60 per cent since January and American Airlines paid $665 million more for fuel in the first quarter of this year than in the same period of 2007.
The credit crunch is likely to worsen and a number of financial institutions will fail, according to research from Atradius, the credit insurance group which conducted a global survey of its customers’ views of the financial outlook. Although Atradius said that companies expect the number of failures to be small, about 65 per cent expect there to be failures.
The group added that direct exposure to sub-prime lending is higher in Europe than in the United States even though the bulk of the sub-prime mortgage defaults are in the US and many of the securities these loans are packaged into would have originated from US-based mortgage companies.
“Some explanation for this may be investments by European companies in US securities offering higher returns and more frequent use of secondary financial markets to securitise receivables by European countries,” it said.
Atradius added that only 12 per cent of companies across the world do not expect an economic slowdown in the next year. In Britain, more than 90 per cent of companies surveyed expect a slowdown, the highest percentage. About one in six companies expects a slowdown of only the national economy; a quarter expect a slowdown of the global economy and half expect a slowdown of both. The expectation of a slowdown is also high in Mexico, the United States, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium and lowest in Sweden and the Netherlands.
Atradius found that larger companies are more likely to have been affected by the credit crisis. Although fewer than 30 per cent of small companies reported an impact, almost half of all large companies (with more than €1 billion annual gross sales) said that they had felt the credit-crisis pinch.
Companies operating within the energy industry have been especially affected, but those in the healthcare and services industries reported a relatively low frequency of impact.
Sources within the airline industry indicate that credit is being denied to most of the leading American carriers and the practice is moving to Europe and Asia. So uncertain is the cash solvency of the industry that jet fuel suppliers insist on prepayments into special bank accounts.
A credit controller at a leading European multinational oil company told The Times that the oil industry was moving to jet fuel prepayment. “It’s common in the US and it is moving to Europe. We have been moving to prepayment since Swissair went bust.”
The need to put up money before delivery of fuel is a huge financial burden that has been shifted from the oil companies to the airlines. According to John Armbrust, a US jet fuel consultant, the oil industry had $5 billion (£2.5 billion) of jet fuel credit outstanding to airlines before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Now they are demanding that airlines leave cash on deposit.
“The airlines can’t afford it. Traditionally, oil companies extended credit for 14 or 21 days and some as long as 30 days. Now, most American airlines are on prepay. South West is one of a few likely to still get credit.”
The extent of the cash squeeze was highlighted last week when American Airlines said that it would charge $15 per bag checked even as it revealed plans to shed 75 aircraft, shrinking the airline’s capacity by 12 per cent.
The price of jet fuel has risen by 60 per cent since January and American Airlines paid $665 million more for fuel in the first quarter of this year than in the same period of 2007.
The credit crunch is likely to worsen and a number of financial institutions will fail, according to research from Atradius, the credit insurance group which conducted a global survey of its customers’ views of the financial outlook. Although Atradius said that companies expect the number of failures to be small, about 65 per cent expect there to be failures.
The group added that direct exposure to sub-prime lending is higher in Europe than in the United States even though the bulk of the sub-prime mortgage defaults are in the US and many of the securities these loans are packaged into would have originated from US-based mortgage companies.
“Some explanation for this may be investments by European companies in US securities offering higher returns and more frequent use of secondary financial markets to securitise receivables by European countries,” it said.
Atradius added that only 12 per cent of companies across the world do not expect an economic slowdown in the next year. In Britain, more than 90 per cent of companies surveyed expect a slowdown, the highest percentage. About one in six companies expects a slowdown of only the national economy; a quarter expect a slowdown of the global economy and half expect a slowdown of both. The expectation of a slowdown is also high in Mexico, the United States, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium and lowest in Sweden and the Netherlands.
Atradius found that larger companies are more likely to have been affected by the credit crisis. Although fewer than 30 per cent of small companies reported an impact, almost half of all large companies (with more than €1 billion annual gross sales) said that they had felt the credit-crisis pinch.
Companies operating within the energy industry have been especially affected, but those in the healthcare and services industries reported a relatively low frequency of impact.
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Squealing for deals - FT.com
Published: May 26 2008 20:39 | Last updated: May 27 2008 09:54
The price of crude oil has risen 80 per cent during the past year. The cost of jet fuel has risen even faster. Airlines across the globe are squealing. Air France on Thursday posted its first quarterly loss since 2003, due mainly to higher fuel costs. American Airlines has announced it will cut routes and staff. Airlines have no control over fuel prices – but they can decide the best response. Consolidation should top the list.
Take Europe’s airlines. They are being squeezed by fuel prices as demand is weakening and wages are rising. Meanwhile, European long-haul capacity will grow in 2008 for the first time this decade. These pressures are exacerbated by the industry’s history. Most countries still have national airlines. Yet the market is now regional, making combinations necessary.
The business case for such mergers is impeccable, with significant cost-saving opportunities. Whether they will happen will depend not just on companies’ boards but on overcoming regulatory, legal and political hurdles. Alitalia, losing nearly €1.5m a day, has been able to resist a takeover by Air France-KLM thanks to support from the Italian government. Politics aside, regulators might justifiably frown on airline combinations that would dominate routes or important hub airports. The hurdles, though, are falling.
The European Union-US “open skies” agreement, effective from March, opens transatlantic routes to greater competition. And the financial rewards from airline mergers – historically poor – now provide more encouragement. When Air France joined forces with KLM in 2004, annual synergies of up to €500m were promised. So far it has delivered double that.
Which European airline mergers might work
Potential combination Combined mkt cap(€bn) For Against
Air France-KLM / Lufthansa 12 Majority of slots at 5 of Europe’s largest airports. Complementary routes. Labour/buying synergies High market share at hub airports. Different working practices. AF partly government owned
Lufthansa / BA 10 Lufthansa’s strong balance sheet. Diversifies BA from US and Lufthansa towards US High market share at Heathrow
AF-KLM / BA 8 Would be Europe’s largest carrier. Majority of slots at 3 of Europe’s largest airports. High synergies High market share at hub airports. AF partly government owned. Different working practices
Lufthansa / SAS 8 Affordable SAS to provide traffic for Lufthansa’s German hubs. High synergies High share on Germany-Scandinavia routes. SAS needs restructuring. Both unionised but working practices different
British Airways / Iberia 5 BA already has stake. Strong transatlantic market share. Iberia’s strong balance sheet High route overlap on London-Spain and transatlantic. British Airways’ pensions/unions
Published: May 26 2008 20:39 | Last updated: May 27 2008 09:54
The price of crude oil has risen 80 per cent during the past year. The cost of jet fuel has risen even faster. Airlines across the globe are squealing. Air France on Thursday posted its first quarterly loss since 2003, due mainly to higher fuel costs. American Airlines has announced it will cut routes and staff. Airlines have no control over fuel prices – but they can decide the best response. Consolidation should top the list.
Take Europe’s airlines. They are being squeezed by fuel prices as demand is weakening and wages are rising. Meanwhile, European long-haul capacity will grow in 2008 for the first time this decade. These pressures are exacerbated by the industry’s history. Most countries still have national airlines. Yet the market is now regional, making combinations necessary.
The business case for such mergers is impeccable, with significant cost-saving opportunities. Whether they will happen will depend not just on companies’ boards but on overcoming regulatory, legal and political hurdles. Alitalia, losing nearly €1.5m a day, has been able to resist a takeover by Air France-KLM thanks to support from the Italian government. Politics aside, regulators might justifiably frown on airline combinations that would dominate routes or important hub airports. The hurdles, though, are falling.
The European Union-US “open skies” agreement, effective from March, opens transatlantic routes to greater competition. And the financial rewards from airline mergers – historically poor – now provide more encouragement. When Air France joined forces with KLM in 2004, annual synergies of up to €500m were promised. So far it has delivered double that.
Which European airline mergers might work
Potential combination Combined mkt cap(€bn) For Against
Air France-KLM / Lufthansa 12 Majority of slots at 5 of Europe’s largest airports. Complementary routes. Labour/buying synergies High market share at hub airports. Different working practices. AF partly government owned
Lufthansa / BA 10 Lufthansa’s strong balance sheet. Diversifies BA from US and Lufthansa towards US High market share at Heathrow
AF-KLM / BA 8 Would be Europe’s largest carrier. Majority of slots at 3 of Europe’s largest airports. High synergies High market share at hub airports. AF partly government owned. Different working practices
Lufthansa / SAS 8 Affordable SAS to provide traffic for Lufthansa’s German hubs. High synergies High share on Germany-Scandinavia routes. SAS needs restructuring. Both unionised but working practices different
British Airways / Iberia 5 BA already has stake. Strong transatlantic market share. Iberia’s strong balance sheet High route overlap on London-Spain and transatlantic. British Airways’ pensions/unions
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Wee Willy Welshman,
I know of loads of people getting jobs
You need to look on the bright side and stop depressing everyone you doom and gloom merchant
I know of loads of people getting jobs
You need to look on the bright side and stop depressing everyone you doom and gloom merchant
What may depress you may save another wannabe from commiting financial suicide.
Its a little bit like the Theatre is on fire but everyone is chattering about price of the ice creams through the thickening smoke. Airline Bosses, economists, industry analysts and the likes of me are telling you that airlines, signicant ones, here, will go bust or cease operations soon. When that happens nobody wants to know about anyone who doesn't have 1,500hrs on a commercial type because they've already got a stack of CV's with more than that who can start tomorrow on half pay.
Unless you really know, have studied and talked about the 1991 -1993 airline recession you have no idea how brutal this business can be.
People will be getting jobs and ordering new aircraft right up to the day before the bust. Then it all gets thrown into high speed reverse.
A recession, a house price crash AND an oil shock is truly a witches brew that will kill off several airlines.
WWW
Its a little bit like the Theatre is on fire but everyone is chattering about price of the ice creams through the thickening smoke. Airline Bosses, economists, industry analysts and the likes of me are telling you that airlines, signicant ones, here, will go bust or cease operations soon. When that happens nobody wants to know about anyone who doesn't have 1,500hrs on a commercial type because they've already got a stack of CV's with more than that who can start tomorrow on half pay.
Unless you really know, have studied and talked about the 1991 -1993 airline recession you have no idea how brutal this business can be.
People will be getting jobs and ordering new aircraft right up to the day before the bust. Then it all gets thrown into high speed reverse.
A recession, a house price crash AND an oil shock is truly a witches brew that will kill off several airlines.
WWW
Actually to be fair there are brighter aspects to the situation at present. Namely the immense amount of expansion in the BRIC countries and the Gulf region. They are falling over themselves to offer contracting work and are improving their T&C's to attract experienced pilots to their lands.
Although many would be reluctant to make the ex-pat move most would have to if redundant and this may ease the pressure on the jobs market at home a little. Although I expect the airlines here to lower T&C's and ask you to fly for free or for meal vouchers if its your first job.
WWW
Although many would be reluctant to make the ex-pat move most would have to if redundant and this may ease the pressure on the jobs market at home a little. Although I expect the airlines here to lower T&C's and ask you to fly for free or for meal vouchers if its your first job.
WWW
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Can you imagine the day where you jump off the 737 in Spain for your holiday and find the captain serving you drinks at the hotel bar to make a few extra quid, because the airline pays only pays him in meal vouchers!
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Can you imagine the day where you jump off the 737 in Spain for your holiday and find the captain serving you drinks at the hotel bar to make a few extra quid, because the airline pays only pays him in meal vouchers!
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Its a little bit like the Theatre is on fire but everyone is chattering about price of the ice creams through the thickening smoke. Airline Bosses, economists, industry analysts and the likes of me are telling you that airlines, signicant ones, here, will go bust or cease operations soon. When that happens nobody wants to know about anyone who doesn't have 1,500hrs on a commercial type because they've already got a stack of CV's with more than that who can start tomorrow on half pay.
You might find that the theatre being 'on fire' is abit of a false alarm. Your probably better off sitting back, slurping on your ice-cream and enjoying the film whilst the other panic stricken punters leave!
All we hear from the media is Oil Prices, Housing Crash (thats being going on for about since I can remember) and Recession. It sells papers.
Ive no doubt the UK population has been spending like crazy over the last 10 years due to the willingness of credit institutions to lend. The purse strings will have to tighten and this will have an knock on effect to the emerging economies that have been supplying us with our goods. BUT I doubt the effects will be as strong as the scaremongers will say. I can see a correction in house prices but the same will happen with oil (there is no lack of supply - the price is just as overinflated as the housing market).
WWW - I just dont think the picture is as bad as you imagine
Its always a gamble to go into this industry and frankly when is a good time? Who knows what is round the corner (no one predicted 9/11). All I know is that if you sit back worrying all the time you will get nowhere!
BalhamBob, I'm in total agreement with WWW on this one and yes, I think everyone has their own views on how this will all pan out in the end. My feeling is that the housing market blow, plus high oil prices, plus recession is very real and not some media stunt to sell more papers/airtime. If you think that way then that's your view, and i'm sure there are many more.
Best thing is to sit back, prepare for the worst and watch what happens over the next 6-12 months.
WWW isn't trying to say DON'T TRAIN TO BE A PILOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, but sitting back a while may just help those on a very tight budget to better sort finances for when the economy does improve, if it ever does again, and the industry goes on another up turn.
My gut feeling is it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
I hope i'm wrong because it effects everyone somehow, especially us low paid sector workers. This isn't the forum for arguments, but balanced debate and valid points do help those who are maybe entering this industry with little-to-no knowledge about it all. There are a lot of naive people coming along all of the time and being taken for a ride.
(eg, the guy who was told it would cost him all 16k is one)
Best thing is to sit back, prepare for the worst and watch what happens over the next 6-12 months.
WWW isn't trying to say DON'T TRAIN TO BE A PILOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, but sitting back a while may just help those on a very tight budget to better sort finances for when the economy does improve, if it ever does again, and the industry goes on another up turn.
My gut feeling is it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
I hope i'm wrong because it effects everyone somehow, especially us low paid sector workers. This isn't the forum for arguments, but balanced debate and valid points do help those who are maybe entering this industry with little-to-no knowledge about it all. There are a lot of naive people coming along all of the time and being taken for a ride.
(eg, the guy who was told it would cost him all 16k is one)
Last edited by helimutt; 27th May 2008 at 18:48. Reason: bad spelling and typo's as usual
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You might find that the theatre being 'on fire' is abit of a false alarm. Your probably better off sitting back, slurping on your ice-cream and enjoying the film whilst the other panic stricken punters leave!
"One or two punters decided to continue watching the film and were burned to death despite the fire alarm ringing for several minutes before the fire hit the auditorium. Investigators puzzled why they stayed in their seats"
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2 years I say.
Read this - from the FT again (today):
US house prices plunged by a record amount in the first three months of this year compared with the first quarter of 2007, a trend that could prolong the economic slowdown and cause further pain for homeowners facing foreclosure, a new report revealed on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, rising petrol prices and a weakening labour market sent consumer confidence sliding to a 16-year low.
The S&P/Case-Shiller national house price index, which covers about three-quarters of the country, was 14.1 per cent lower in the first quarter of 2008 than for the same period a year earlier, the sharpest drop in the 20-year history of the index.
Read this - from the FT again (today):
US house prices plunged by a record amount in the first three months of this year compared with the first quarter of 2007, a trend that could prolong the economic slowdown and cause further pain for homeowners facing foreclosure, a new report revealed on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, rising petrol prices and a weakening labour market sent consumer confidence sliding to a 16-year low.
The S&P/Case-Shiller national house price index, which covers about three-quarters of the country, was 14.1 per cent lower in the first quarter of 2008 than for the same period a year earlier, the sharpest drop in the 20-year history of the index.
2 years for the recession and HPC. Flat for 2 years after. Good time to be a Wannabe job hunting might be 2012. That said the crystal ball is on the blink at the moment so don't bet the farm on anything I say.
The last HPC and recession ran from 1990 to 1994. By 1996 house price inflation reappeared and airlines started expanding once again, Ryanair started up with easyJet the year after and then we had an 11yr long boom.
The current situation is that the oil pressure is dropping into the caution zone, the temps are approaching the red line. There is a funny smell in the cabin and the master caution has just illuminated. If you want to keep reading the paper then fine - you do that. Me, I'm pulling out the plates for the nearest suitable and switching on the seatbelts.
Personally I have little to fear and as I sold to rent a year ago I'm profiting from the current housing crash. I'm whistling.
Its wannabes that face the emergency.
Some resent being warned.
Fine,
WWW
The last HPC and recession ran from 1990 to 1994. By 1996 house price inflation reappeared and airlines started expanding once again, Ryanair started up with easyJet the year after and then we had an 11yr long boom.
The current situation is that the oil pressure is dropping into the caution zone, the temps are approaching the red line. There is a funny smell in the cabin and the master caution has just illuminated. If you want to keep reading the paper then fine - you do that. Me, I'm pulling out the plates for the nearest suitable and switching on the seatbelts.
Personally I have little to fear and as I sold to rent a year ago I'm profiting from the current housing crash. I'm whistling.
Its wannabes that face the emergency.
Some resent being warned.
Fine,
WWW
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It seems like we have all turned into Economists judging by the last few posts!
Got to get back to the Theatre debate tho:
"Several punters ran out of the auditorium only to discover they had made the wrong decision and it was snowing outside. They tried to get back in through the door they had left by but discovered it was now shut. They did not have enough money to pay the bus home but fortunately for them they secured an interview with Ronald Mcdonald. They now have a great time selling Happy Meals and flying Radio Controlled aeroplanes at the weekend"
Seriously though I dont see the point in delaying things because you are worried about the way the industry is going. The quicker you get on the bus the quicker you get to your destination.
There are plenty of jobs about and the industry is absolutely crying out for Flying Instructors due to a mass shortage. That is a FACT - just have a look in Flight International's back pages. No point in waiting - just bide your time until it gets better? Thats as bigger gamble as taking the plunge now. Ridiculous - you may well regret it (unless you like working with Ronald)
Well done??? What you got your money in? Pork Bellys or Northern Rock? I kept onto my place and rent. If there is a major Housing Crash it will be much easier to upgrade to something better (& cheaper) if you are still a house owner - I think you have made one hell of a gamble.
Anyways good luck to you all
I say the cup is half full
Got to get back to the Theatre debate tho:
"One or two punters decided to continue watching the film and were burned to death despite the fire alarm ringing for several minutes before the fire hit the auditorium. Investigators puzzled why they stayed in their seats"
Seriously though I dont see the point in delaying things because you are worried about the way the industry is going. The quicker you get on the bus the quicker you get to your destination.
There are plenty of jobs about and the industry is absolutely crying out for Flying Instructors due to a mass shortage. That is a FACT - just have a look in Flight International's back pages. No point in waiting - just bide your time until it gets better? Thats as bigger gamble as taking the plunge now. Ridiculous - you may well regret it (unless you like working with Ronald)
Personally I have little to fear and as I sold to rent a year ago I'm profiting from the current housing crash. I'm whistling.
Anyways good luck to you all
I say the cup is half full
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There are plenty of jobs about and the industry is absolutely crying out for Flying Instructors due to a mass shortage. That is a FACT - just have a look in Flight International's back pages.
Proof? I don't see any ad saying that they would sponsor your FI course...
The best and longest-lasting instructors are found among airline pilots, certainly not among younger fATPL's who come on hour building and start shaking when giving their first ground lessons... they never last longer than a year and every 2 or 3 months one of them leaves for a better horizon. So flight schools genereally try to avoid them because it costs money and energy to look for replacement eacht time one leaves.
I wouldn't count too much on instructor shortages. There's plenty of experienced airline pilots out there willing to teach for the right money.
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No point in waiting - just bide your time until it gets better? Thats as bigger gamble as taking the plunge now. Ridiculous - you may well regret it (unless you like working with Ronald)
You guys are aware that your ATPL exams and your IR expire aren't you?
The massive problem with completing your flying training into the face of a major airline recession is that of currency. If you can't find work in the first 6 months then you will get rusty as hell. All the time the school is churning out identically qualified new pilot wannabes behind you who are more current. After 12 months you need to revalidate that Multi IR. Don't expect to do it in minimum time if you've barely flown in the last 12 months. Affording to fly to keep current is a major problem for many as they are now servicing the debt from their basic training.
You have attained your flying skills in a short time. This means they will decay quickly. Within a year or two you'll struggle to pass the simcheck assessment when you do get past your first job interview.
At some point the constant rejection and lack of likely job leads starts to crush your morale. You need to get on with your life, the partner wants a better flat, you go back to your old career to make ends meet. Eventually you can't face throwing more money keeping you IR current and you let it lapse. Game over.
Seen it many many times.
There are plenty of other people in this business who will tell you that timing is everything. Complete training in a boom and its an immediate Jet type rating and straight into an expanding airline. Joy. Complete training into a bust and see above.
Please tell me you've considered these sorts of issues.
WWW
The massive problem with completing your flying training into the face of a major airline recession is that of currency. If you can't find work in the first 6 months then you will get rusty as hell. All the time the school is churning out identically qualified new pilot wannabes behind you who are more current. After 12 months you need to revalidate that Multi IR. Don't expect to do it in minimum time if you've barely flown in the last 12 months. Affording to fly to keep current is a major problem for many as they are now servicing the debt from their basic training.
You have attained your flying skills in a short time. This means they will decay quickly. Within a year or two you'll struggle to pass the simcheck assessment when you do get past your first job interview.
At some point the constant rejection and lack of likely job leads starts to crush your morale. You need to get on with your life, the partner wants a better flat, you go back to your old career to make ends meet. Eventually you can't face throwing more money keeping you IR current and you let it lapse. Game over.
Seen it many many times.
There are plenty of other people in this business who will tell you that timing is everything. Complete training in a boom and its an immediate Jet type rating and straight into an expanding airline. Joy. Complete training into a bust and see above.
Please tell me you've considered these sorts of issues.
WWW
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
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You guys are aware that your ATPL exams and your IR expire aren't you?
The massive problem with completing your flying training into the face of a major airline recession is that of currency. If you can't find work in the first 6 months then you will get rusty as hell. All the time the school is churning out identically qualified new pilot wannabes behind you who are more current. After 12 months you need to revalidate that Multi IR. Don't expect to do it in minimum time if you've barely flown in the last 12 months. Affording to fly to keep current is a major problem for many as they are now servicing the debt from their basic training.
You have attained your flying skills in a short time. This means they will decay quickly. Within a year or two you'll struggle to pass the simcheck assessment when you do get past your first job interview.
At some point the constant rejection and lack of likely job leads starts to crush your morale. You need to get on with your life, the partner wants a better flat, you go back to your old career to make ends meet. Eventually you can't face throwing more money keeping you IR current and you let it lapse. Game over.
Seen it many many times.
There are plenty of other people in this business who will tell you that timing is everything. Complete training in a boom and its an immediate Jet type rating and straight into an expanding airline. Joy. Complete training into a bust and see above.
Please tell me you've considered these sorts of issues.
WWW
The massive problem with completing your flying training into the face of a major airline recession is that of currency. If you can't find work in the first 6 months then you will get rusty as hell. All the time the school is churning out identically qualified new pilot wannabes behind you who are more current. After 12 months you need to revalidate that Multi IR. Don't expect to do it in minimum time if you've barely flown in the last 12 months. Affording to fly to keep current is a major problem for many as they are now servicing the debt from their basic training.
You have attained your flying skills in a short time. This means they will decay quickly. Within a year or two you'll struggle to pass the simcheck assessment when you do get past your first job interview.
At some point the constant rejection and lack of likely job leads starts to crush your morale. You need to get on with your life, the partner wants a better flat, you go back to your old career to make ends meet. Eventually you can't face throwing more money keeping you IR current and you let it lapse. Game over.
Seen it many many times.
There are plenty of other people in this business who will tell you that timing is everything. Complete training in a boom and its an immediate Jet type rating and straight into an expanding airline. Joy. Complete training into a bust and see above.
Please tell me you've considered these sorts of issues.
WWW
. Luckily for me i am a qualified X and i can quite comfortably return to this well paid profession without any major upset. Personally i feel the time is now or never and well i'm diving right in at the deepend and lets hope i can swim