Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This is rapidly getting worse - Oils now popped its head above $129 a barrel in New York right now and Oil Futures prices is going bonkers.

The Futures price should be lower than todays price but it isn't and has climbed all month. People are making long term bets that Oil is going to go higher and stay higher. This really is starting to look bad. Above $150 a barrel it will be game over for many Western airlines and pilots will be in the soup kitchens sat next to the estate agents.


WWW

[Diaz]

It will be interesting to see just how long it takes for the world to realize that this is going to be one hell of an economic shift. I still have confidence that some technology will come around to solve the problem of running out of oil- the only question is when and how much?

[zapoi67]

Hell !

Had almost decided to realise my dream... but after reading all this....

I am really puzzled. I (we) have only ONE life, I have understood that I am having a hard time in my professional life because of "having forgotten" my dream to be a professional pilot. As I said above, the decision to get the money from the pension fund (without going into debt) was almost taken, my wife and my son already prepared the "Plan B" in order to live 1,5 year without me. I was looking for flight schools in Canada and South Africa, the dream was about to come true... What should I do now ?

Getting back to everyday's life, looking for the (n+1)th feeding job which, even if well paid, will not satisfy me ? And go on with looking up into the sky, while walking to the office. Dreaming about flying over the savannah while sitting in front of a PC screen....

I hate my life !!

[nich-av]

Don't bother the oil prices.

Huge American companies are trying to hedge their losses by converting their devaluating bucks into oil and gold.
That gives these products unprecedented rates.

So yes, all these corporates and banks who are hedging their bucks into such products need to send analysts to the media to let them tell that there is a huge shortage of supply with increasing demand to explain the situation.
Oil has now risen 100% compared to the same period last year.

Does it mean that demand to supply ratio has doubled in the same period? no.
Does demand to supply ratio increase with increased prices?
no.

Wait till some major car producer (who are all increasingly struggling to sell their vehicles due to higher oil) comes up with a manageable electric car and you'll see the oil prices crash with all these entities trying to get rid of their overvalued oil (which is by the way 6 times overvalued by now).
.

[Diaz]

The key thing with all of this is to go in with eyes open and understanding what awaits you- only you can say if the risk of the current market is worth the cost of training.

For me, I'm going to go through university, and see what the market looks like on the other side, and see if the doom and gloom predicted comes true.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

American Airlines has announced plans to cut jobs, retire planes and reduce capacity as the world's biggest airline becomes the first carrier to reveal the impact of the surge in oil prices.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...bcnamer121.xml

About 45 planes will be dropped from its American fleet and the airline said it is still assessing the number of jobs that will go from its 85,500 workforce.



This is but the first of many. The industry is headed for a full speed crash in the West. The evidence is all around you. Protect yourself and avoid debt, don't pay in advance and don't let your dreams run away with you.

WWW

[redsnail]

** big deep breath in **

No one is saying "give up your dream, never learn to fly". What a few of us are saying is "don't go into a huge amount of debt with no clear way to finance it. Instead, if you don't have a spare 70k GBP sitting around, do the flying in chunks to time it so you're current when the hiring begins - as it will again like it always does"

So, to say again. It is a wise idea not to go heavily into debt on a full time course with NO conditional employment contract.

ok?

[BIG MISTER]

Sound Advice WWW and Redsnail

Live for today......but plan for tomorrow ! ! !

[zapoi67]

Thanks for the advices. Two more things :

1) I'm already 40 y.o. So, IF I'll decide to start with the training, I'll be doing it full-time.
2) What's your advice about using the money from the complementary retirement fund ? In this case, I wouldn't have any debt. Just less money earning when I'll be retired.

Thanks for further advice !

[Re-Heat]

You would likely be penalised in tax terms if you use a retirement fund. I would not advise you to ever use that.


FT article:

If only suitcases were all the baggage America’s airlines had to carry. Unfortunately, fuel is the big burden weighing down aircraft. American Airlines’ decision to slash domestic capacity and sting customers with extra luggage charges is just the latest attempt to counter the surging cost of oil. It will not be the last.

Nymex crude oil, currently nudging $134 a barrel, has averaged $105 so far in 2008. If it maintains that level for the rest of the year, the total fuel bill for America’s top 11 airlines would rise by 39 per cent to more than $43bn, based on CreditSights’ estimates. To put that incremental cost in perspective, it would, all else being equal, eat up more than half the cash sitting on the airlines’ balance sheets at the end of the first quarter.

Airlines, therefore, are trying to raise passenger charges fast enough to outrun crude oil prices that are savaging the cash cushions built up since the last round of bankruptcies. In the space of just over a month, AA has participated in no less than 15 fare increases. If that were not evidence enough of desperation, the bald statement by AMR, the airline’s parent, that “the airline industry as it is constituted today was not built to withstand oil prices at $125 a barrel” certainly is.

So far, customers have continued flying. As with $4 petrol for motorists, the airline industry is testing the limits of what passengers can bear. AA’s latest move, resorting to more add-on charges rather than headline ticket price increases, suggests that limit could be close to being breached. If another round of bankruptcies occurs, there is little scope for further restructuring given previous cuts. Little wonder, then, that AMR stock, along with that of many of its peers, plunged by double-digit percentages yesterday. Investors should not regard that as a buying opportunity.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

$135 Oil is here. If the evidence keeps growing like this then we won't even have to wait until the traditional Oct/Nov time for airlines to start going bust.

A mild industry recession is a disaster for Wannabes. I think many industry commentators think we're past Korma, into Balti and the Madras is on the way out of the kitchen.

I haven't checked but I expect to see the prices of flying training courses rise noticeably shortly. Fuel is roughly 20% of the cost of CPL and Multi IR course.

WWW

[Wodka]

2 for 1 at the moment...

http://www.knives.co.uk

[mason]

Lads at the end of the Day were all rats in a barrell trying to get to
the top some rats give up early and drown the others keep trying .
the question is which kind of rat are you ?

[BIG MISTER]

I'm a BLACK RAT = Move over ! ! ! !

[chris-squire]

Well none of this is exactly inspiring reading for someone such as myself who has just plunged into debt and started training. Having nearly completed my PPL and soon to be diving head first into ATPL's it does concern me when AA are shedding airframes. Infact it frankly scares the **** out of me given the financial responsibility that ive taken on to do this!

However, just to play devils advocate..... what hasn't been mentioned (as far as I can tell) is the hurrendous world wide shortage of Instructors which is bound to have a knock on effect with the number of people now entering the industry soon at an all time low. Not to mention that according to a few BA recruitment folks, they are reopening some form of sponsored training again in about 8 months time. Whilst I remain sceptical about this and doubt that it will be anything like the ab-initio sponsorship that they have offered in the past, surely this is a positive outlook.

One more thing.... despite rising Oil prices, the hurrendous **** up that was T5 and the LHR crash all in BA's last financial year....they still made record profits which were 45% up on the prior year.

So maybe things arent as bleak as you may think? Yes of course my view is slightly biased but I am remaining impartial about this...I have to because I do have a rather large debt to pay back at the end of my training and I wont be sticking my head in the sand whilst Mr HSBC comes knocking...i jus tthink that there might actually be a positive outlook on the horizon rather thatn the doom and gloom thats forever mentioned on here.

[Grass strip basher]

At an oil price of $120 BA will make a loss this year.... and they are talking about parking some aircraft... why would they re-open a sponsored training scheme when they think they have excess capacity? Sounds like driving looking through the rear view mirror to me....

[Wodka]

@ chris-squire

BA's costs related to T5 will mostly be in this financial year, not the one just reported. BA have also stated that the margin of profit made last year will be WIPED OUT by the current Oil prices (Assuming the price does not fall back down below $100) They are also planning on grounding older less fuel efficient airframes over the winter.

ALSO...

From today's Guardian

Cheap flights boom over, says BA chief as oil hits new high

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...irwaysbusiness

Britain's leading airline boss declared the era of cheap flights over yesterday as the price of oil hit a record high for the third day running.

Willie Walsh, the boss of British Airways, said the soaring cost of oil allied to global economic uncertainty would force airlines to raise fares in a scramble for survival that will see many of them go bust.

After a day of heavy trading oil rose to $135 a barrel as fears over supply shortages in the US sparked more buying. A year ago a barrel of oil cost just $65 but the price has risen relentlessly, driven by demand from developing countries and speculation on the world markets.

The soaring cost of fuel is also having a painful impact on the wider economy and brought renewed calls yesterday for the government to scrap rises in duty planned for the autumn as motorists face increasingly steep increases in the cost of filling their tanks.

The AA said drivers would pay more than £110m more on fuel over this weekend's bank holiday than over the same period last year. Average petrol prices have risen to 112.5p a litre while diesel costs an average 124.2p.

A day after the world's biggest carrier, American Airlines, announced huge cuts in routes and jobs because of the rising oil price, Walsh said budget airlines would have to increase fares and add-on charges such as baggage check-in fees and that many unprofitable companies would simply go bust. "The industry has no future if it does not price in its costs."

Asked if cheap fares for customers who book flights far in advance will disappear, he said: "My view is yes," before issuing a warning to low cost carriers Ryanair and easyJet, who rely on low ticket prices to pack out their aircraft.

His prediction will mean the end of a golden era for consumers who have become used to cheap flights to cities all over the globe and which has revolutionised the travel industry by putting hitherto unheralded destinations such as Jerez and Tallinn on the tourist map.

"If these prices are not available it will not encourage people to take short trips," said Walsh.

He added that many airlines would not survive a life-threatening combination of expensive fuel and a drop-off in demand as passenger numbers decline due to expensive fares and dwindling consumer confidence.

"This is about whether airlines can survive. If you look at a lot of the low-cost carriers around Europe, a lot of them have not been able to make money when oil was $80 per barrel," he said.

Despite announcing record profits last year, BA is expected to lose money over the next two years as its bottom line is wiped out by the oil price. Walsh confirmed that, as well as raising its fares, BA will cut thousands of flights this winter as its drops its least profitable routes and grounds its oldest, most fuel-thirsty planes.

The BA chief executive also refused to rule out another hike in fuel surcharges, which are levied on customers to cover the rising cost of oil and already add £158 to the cost of long-haul return flights. "It could be [a rise in] fares, it could be surcharges. Or it could be a combination of both," he said.

Fuel accounts for around a third of airline budgets and its escalating price is forcing airlines to pass on the cost to consumers because they are running out of overheads to slash in their own businesses.

The cost of fuelling a transatlantic flight, the most profitable part of BA's business, has quadrupled since 2000 to $44,000 (£22,200).

EasyJet admitted this month that its costs had risen by £4 per customer due to higher fuel prices - an increase that it is struggling not to pass on in fare increases.

Budget airlines led by Ryanair and easyJet are mitigating the increase by charging higher fees for checking in bags and priority boarding passes. Their business models are predicated on packing their planes with passengers through very cheap fares and then generating extra profits through charging those customers for add-ons such as baggage check-ins and car hire deals.

Analysts have warned that high fuel costs spell the end of the cheap flights boom, which has taken Ryanair from a provincial carrier to the world's most profitable airline, but is now under threat due to fares pressure and falling disposable income.

"All we have done is factored in the oil price. We have not even factored in a consumer slowdown yet. The real problem is the price sensitive consumer. What happens to them when they push their prices up," said Andrew Fitchie, analyst at stockbroker Collins Stewart.

An easyJet spokesman said fares would be kept low in the short term because there were too many European budget carriers. However, many of those airlines would go bankrupt over the next year, allowing the likes of easyJet and Ryanair to raise fares in order to accommodate fuel costs.

[saccade]

Not everyone agrees with W. Walsh:
Commercial Director OAT on the public OAT forum (21-05-08):

I would suggest it would be foolish to read very much into this possibility of some aircraft being grounded. It's not especially unusual for airlines to ground aircraft (Ryanair will do something similar this year as they did last, and these are brand new ones). An airline is, after all, just a business, and all businesses have to adjust capacity as demand varies. The particular problem for an airline is that they are dealing with very expensive assets, which they need to order 3 years or more before they anticipate needing them, and they are then in the fleet for 10 years plus. Given that economists have trouble predicting more than a year ahead - and sometimes less - it would be hardly reasonable to expect an airline to get their sums exactly right and continuing to be valid over a 15 year period!

The other key point here is that ATPL training itself takes approximately 18 months. We simply cannot predict that far ahead. All we can say is that pilot recruiting trends on a world-wide basis continue to look favourable. There are certainly going to be peaks and troughs about that trend line - there always are, but there is no reason to suppose that it's going to change direction, oil prices and UK/US credit squeeze nothwithstanding. What we cannot do, however, is to predict what is going to happen in terms of pilot recruiting for an individual airline that far ahead. What we can say is that BA is a very strong business and far better placed than are most to weather temporary financial issues. It's current profits - despite oil prices and other factors - are actually pretty impressive. So worrying about the future recruiting position is almost certainly unnecessary. Better to concentrate, as one correspondent has already indicated, on completing the training and getting high-grade results. At least you have some control over that!

Trust this helps.

http://ask.oxfordaviation.net/viewtopic.php?t=4487

[Wodka]

ha ha ha

Well the head of a flight training organisation can always be trusted to give us fair impartial advice can't he?

That's almost as good as...
** Buy now! Huge discount available for people who pay upfront **

WAKE UP!

AIRLINES GOING BUST = FLOOD OF EXPERIENCED PILOTS ONTO JOB MARKET

Airlines WILL go bust over this, read the facts, make a conclusion yourself.

[Grass strip basher]

I know who I would rather believe about the outlook for the aviation industry if it was a straight choice between the CEO of British Airways or a bloke who's job is getting people to part with the best part of £100k to get a frozen ATPL with no guarantee of a job at the end of it. Would you honestly expect OAT to say anything different??

And elsewhere in the news another one bites the dust... think these guys were offering self sponsored type rating for second officers just a couple of months ago.... http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3989923.ece