Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Originally Posted by RexBanner
Are you really going to get to the end of your life, having a conversation with someone else about all the big meaningful things and say "yeah I really wanted to be a pilot but I decided against it after reading some posts about the future economy on a public internet forum". ???
No, my main issue is that I do not think I would make an outstanding pilot, difficult though it was to admit this opinion to myself. I have too great a tendency to panic in highly pressurised situations, and also I think at a slightly slower pace than reality, so that, especially in a fast jet aircraft in an abnormal situation, I think I would be 'behind the aircraft'. Plus I'm useless at interviews! There is of course a reasonable chance that I would be able to overcome all of this, but I have tried to in several ways over the course of several years, but unlike other aspects of my personality, have not been able to change it. It would be a big risk to take to assume that it would work itself out.
And, by the way, I very much like redsnail's suggestions of alternative career paths. I for one would love both of her examples, in particular flying around Scotland in a turboprop - in many ways better than big jets. I have found it difficult though to find out about the various flying opportunities abroad.
PS Sorry if this turns out all as one paragraph - for some reason the system doesn't seem to be recognising the gaps between lines I am putting to separate the paragraphs out....not sure why this is.
Rex - if I wanted to shout you down then I would have done so. I fail to see how backing up a point by posting a link to the more detailed article is in some way a negative thing e.g.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...branson118.xml
..the aviation analyst Chris Avery, of JP Morgan, who calculates that most of the major European carriers face huge increases to their fuel bills as their hedging positions run out. Avery said BA will have to pay an extra £1bn in fuel costs this year, while Lufthansa will have to find an extra €2bn (£1.6bn) by 2009. Virgin Atlantic's fuel bill is 70pc hedged over the next year.
My opinion is just that. My opinion shared by journalists and authors or statisticians or economists becomes something of slightly more weight. Quite a few Wannabes just don't read this sort of stuff. They hear the marketing spin of schools and note the recruitment story of last year. Not so on this thread.
Just why you think I should be more humble to you is a mystery. If you spent more time talking about the upside of the current situation and less time attacking me you might get further. You could be talking about the bouyant contracting market that operates globally. You could be talking about the relatively painless easing of the labour market as the Poles go home. You could argue that the current oil price is largely driven by asset speculation just as Gold was over the last 6 months before it suddenly fell 10%.
But you just whinge and bitch about how tedious this thread is.
Come on - raise your game.
WWW
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...branson118.xml
..the aviation analyst Chris Avery, of JP Morgan, who calculates that most of the major European carriers face huge increases to their fuel bills as their hedging positions run out. Avery said BA will have to pay an extra £1bn in fuel costs this year, while Lufthansa will have to find an extra €2bn (£1.6bn) by 2009. Virgin Atlantic's fuel bill is 70pc hedged over the next year.
My opinion is just that. My opinion shared by journalists and authors or statisticians or economists becomes something of slightly more weight. Quite a few Wannabes just don't read this sort of stuff. They hear the marketing spin of schools and note the recruitment story of last year. Not so on this thread.
Just why you think I should be more humble to you is a mystery. If you spent more time talking about the upside of the current situation and less time attacking me you might get further. You could be talking about the bouyant contracting market that operates globally. You could be talking about the relatively painless easing of the labour market as the Poles go home. You could argue that the current oil price is largely driven by asset speculation just as Gold was over the last 6 months before it suddenly fell 10%.
But you just whinge and bitch about how tedious this thread is.
Come on - raise your game.
WWW
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What's your prediction for Farnborough WWW?
Mine is over 1000 turbine aircraft orders/mou's for deliveries within the next decade. I hope BA announces the A350XWB MoU.
C-series is launching, QR and probably LH, maybe EK are ordering.
MRJ is launched, will take-up some customers from here and there.
SSJ will fly in a matter of days, will get some additional orders, I guess.
This is the first air show after EIS of the A380...should bring more from that side I think (mainly from Asia).
A350XWB orders are piling up, people need to secure delivery slots if they don't want to wait til 2020.
I think that this air show will show that aviation is not scared of this short-lived "downturn".
There's no one at any existing airline believing that crude oil demand to supply ratio can rise 300% in less than a year. People who believe that are naive.
Oil will not rise to 200$, not in the next 10 year (adjusted for inflation of course).
I actually expect it to drop below 120$ this week already, because no one is buying any longer.
Mine is over 1000 turbine aircraft orders/mou's for deliveries within the next decade. I hope BA announces the A350XWB MoU.
C-series is launching, QR and probably LH, maybe EK are ordering.
MRJ is launched, will take-up some customers from here and there.
SSJ will fly in a matter of days, will get some additional orders, I guess.
This is the first air show after EIS of the A380...should bring more from that side I think (mainly from Asia).
A350XWB orders are piling up, people need to secure delivery slots if they don't want to wait til 2020.
I think that this air show will show that aviation is not scared of this short-lived "downturn".
There's no one at any existing airline believing that crude oil demand to supply ratio can rise 300% in less than a year. People who believe that are naive.
Oil will not rise to 200$, not in the next 10 year (adjusted for inflation of course).
I actually expect it to drop below 120$ this week already, because no one is buying any longer.
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I'd be reluctant to rely on a stock analyst at a brokerage firm, especially an American one, as a credible source. If he's spouting verifiable facts, as WWW quoted that's one thing, but watch for the opinion part of the story because that's where the spin will come in. There's no telling what he is selling short or wanting to buy cheap.
I think you'll find Chris Avery does have a strong track record of issuing notes on the airline sector in the UK. JP is a broker admittedly but Averys comments do have the ability to move the market and he has access to data way in advance.
I think United will go bust, a UK airline operating >100 seat jets will go bust and another will be sold for their assets by Feb 2009. The Western world ain't going to be short of pilots. Whether the Eastern world can absorb the surplus is going to be key to Wannabes who do have the option of suppling themselves very cheaply to airlines. Though by doing so it does call into question the rational of the debt they have taken on.
WWW
I think United will go bust, a UK airline operating >100 seat jets will go bust and another will be sold for their assets by Feb 2009. The Western world ain't going to be short of pilots. Whether the Eastern world can absorb the surplus is going to be key to Wannabes who do have the option of suppling themselves very cheaply to airlines. Though by doing so it does call into question the rational of the debt they have taken on.
WWW
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Yes, many people used to be of the same opinion of brokers plugging both their own clients and terrible positions.
However, in the wake of separation of analysts and bankers (i.e. not allowed to speak to each other, and communications monitored), their use in plugging terrible positions has gone, and they are a much more valued opinion.
Whether or not you believe them is up to you - few others have the connections they do to see the true direction of the market.
However, in the wake of separation of analysts and bankers (i.e. not allowed to speak to each other, and communications monitored), their use in plugging terrible positions has gone, and they are a much more valued opinion.
Whether or not you believe them is up to you - few others have the connections they do to see the true direction of the market.
PPRuNe Handmaiden
You have to pick your market and be flexible with your dreams.
Since it's in the news, NetJets Europe have ordered an additional 20 Falcon 2000LX and will convert 10 existing EX orders to LXs.
EBACE is rapidly growing as the place to go to learn about the industry and drool at the shiny toys.
This year is the first year NJE and others will run a "meet and greet" learn about the industry stand.
Since it's in the news, NetJets Europe have ordered an additional 20 Falcon 2000LX and will convert 10 existing EX orders to LXs.
EBACE is rapidly growing as the place to go to learn about the industry and drool at the shiny toys.
This year is the first year NJE and others will run a "meet and greet" learn about the industry stand.
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Interesting little article from the RTE website: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0519/economy.html
So there you have it, no matter how poor everyone gets the demand for holidays will remain as strong as ever!!
Well not quite, but at least its a bit of optimistic reading. However i bet whoever wrote that article will feel pretty stupid in 12 months time when, like WWW predicts, all the airlines in this part of the world have gone bust and we're all starving and homeless!!!
p.s the wannabes will be starving, homeless AND owe 80 grand to the bank.
the end.
A new report on consumer attitudes and behaviour has found that the rising cost of living is having a direct impact on everyday lifestyles.
67% of people are now more conscious of their finances than they used to be, according to the findings of a study by consumer research firm Mintel Ireland.
The report follows last week's figures from the Central Statistics Office, which showed a slowdown in consumer spending.
The volume of retail sales in March fell by 1.8% compared with February, the second monthly fall in a row.
February saw the first annual drop in sales for four years.
The report found that consumers are tightening their belts in key lifestyle areas such as entertainment and eating out.
64% of people said they plan to eat out less often while 42% are prepared to cut back on grocery bills.
60% said they would buy fewer clothes and jewellery. More than half would cancel DIY and home improvements and cut back on treats for the family.
But the report found that when times are tough most people will still find the money to go on a big summer holiday and short breaks.
Separately, European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet has warned that the world is experiencing an 'ongoing and very significant market correction'.
He advised policymakers to make price stability their top priority.
He said inflationary pressures were being added to by oil and food price hikes.
Mr Trichet said these are demanding and challenging times.
67% of people are now more conscious of their finances than they used to be, according to the findings of a study by consumer research firm Mintel Ireland.
The report follows last week's figures from the Central Statistics Office, which showed a slowdown in consumer spending.
The volume of retail sales in March fell by 1.8% compared with February, the second monthly fall in a row.
February saw the first annual drop in sales for four years.
The report found that consumers are tightening their belts in key lifestyle areas such as entertainment and eating out.
64% of people said they plan to eat out less often while 42% are prepared to cut back on grocery bills.
60% said they would buy fewer clothes and jewellery. More than half would cancel DIY and home improvements and cut back on treats for the family.
But the report found that when times are tough most people will still find the money to go on a big summer holiday and short breaks.
Separately, European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet has warned that the world is experiencing an 'ongoing and very significant market correction'.
He advised policymakers to make price stability their top priority.
He said inflationary pressures were being added to by oil and food price hikes.
Mr Trichet said these are demanding and challenging times.
So there you have it, no matter how poor everyone gets the demand for holidays will remain as strong as ever!!
Well not quite, but at least its a bit of optimistic reading. However i bet whoever wrote that article will feel pretty stupid in 12 months time when, like WWW predicts, all the airlines in this part of the world have gone bust and we're all starving and homeless!!!
p.s the wannabes will be starving, homeless AND owe 80 grand to the bank.
the end.
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The report above seems to indicate what I have been saying, that the big annual family holiday is the last thing that will get dropped.
This should be worry to the likes of Easyjet and Ryanair as the weekend in Europe is a big chunk of the business, It should also be a bit of comfort to the I.T. companys who sell the whole two week packages that make up a big part of the "annual" holiday market.
The public are also catching on to the fact that the lo-cost airlines are not as cheap as might be expected for the low service levels that they offer.
With this in mind I wonder would the local expert on this thread like to predict which low service airline (sorry lo-cost) will be the first to go bust?
Over to you WWW !
This should be worry to the likes of Easyjet and Ryanair as the weekend in Europe is a big chunk of the business, It should also be a bit of comfort to the I.T. companys who sell the whole two week packages that make up a big part of the "annual" holiday market.
The public are also catching on to the fact that the lo-cost airlines are not as cheap as might be expected for the low service levels that they offer.
With this in mind I wonder would the local expert on this thread like to predict which low service airline (sorry lo-cost) will be the first to go bust?
Over to you WWW !
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I think the LCCs will always do well, particularly from the regions. Take NCL, you only have three European destinations with a full service airline. MME has just one.
Most routes are operated by no frills airlines. So, whether or not we want a full service airline or not we have two choices. 1) Stick with the no frills airline. 2)Change in London, Paris or Amsterdam if want a full service airline (and pay a LOT of money for the priviledge).
Option two is no good if you are off for a weekend break, or just a daytrip. As travel time will seriously eat in to your stay. Nor is it any good for those of us who are tightening the purse strings, and documented in many reports of late.
So whether we like the onboard service or not, flying a no frills airline is many times more convenient in a lot of cases than transferring, and I don't think the no frills concept will have any problem attracting punters, despite the actual cost saving may not be as great as the percieved cost saving.
Who I think may have an issue would be the airlines that many percieve as 'full service', but infact, have a no-frills service onboard. Such as EI and BD (not all flights, but quite a few). And those airlines who do cater mainly for the family holidays - such as the charters. If families are cutting back on the Summer holiday, then the tour operators may have a hard time filling the planes.
Most routes are operated by no frills airlines. So, whether or not we want a full service airline or not we have two choices. 1) Stick with the no frills airline. 2)Change in London, Paris or Amsterdam if want a full service airline (and pay a LOT of money for the priviledge).
Option two is no good if you are off for a weekend break, or just a daytrip. As travel time will seriously eat in to your stay. Nor is it any good for those of us who are tightening the purse strings, and documented in many reports of late.
So whether we like the onboard service or not, flying a no frills airline is many times more convenient in a lot of cases than transferring, and I don't think the no frills concept will have any problem attracting punters, despite the actual cost saving may not be as great as the percieved cost saving.
Who I think may have an issue would be the airlines that many percieve as 'full service', but infact, have a no-frills service onboard. Such as EI and BD (not all flights, but quite a few). And those airlines who do cater mainly for the family holidays - such as the charters. If families are cutting back on the Summer holiday, then the tour operators may have a hard time filling the planes.
I don't know. In the last recession it was Air Europe and Dan that went bust and they were the big IT holiday firms and post Sept11th it was MyTravel that went closest to the brink. As the high street package holiday draws the majority of its customers from socio enconomic B's and C's who tend to be the customers of Picture Loans, Ocean Finance and have remorgated their 3 bed semi to the hilt since 2000 then it is that customer base that I would be more worried about than the Lo Co's.
I took a plane load of business suits to Edinburgh this morning and plane full of boat owners down to Nice straight after. I doubt many of them had CCJs and there certainly weren't many tatoos or shell suits.
I strongly suspect that we are about to watch the industry conduct a massive money bleeding competition. Those that run dry first will fail. Those that hang on will recover to a much rationalised playing field as the recession ends. BA are well capitalised to do this as are EZY and RYR. Several other airline are a mystery when it comes to captialization and some of the IT airlines are owned by very large comglomerates who can cross subsidize if they want to.
I don't know. I do suspect that it will be a bumpy road though.
WWW
I took a plane load of business suits to Edinburgh this morning and plane full of boat owners down to Nice straight after. I doubt many of them had CCJs and there certainly weren't many tatoos or shell suits.
I strongly suspect that we are about to watch the industry conduct a massive money bleeding competition. Those that run dry first will fail. Those that hang on will recover to a much rationalised playing field as the recession ends. BA are well capitalised to do this as are EZY and RYR. Several other airline are a mystery when it comes to captialization and some of the IT airlines are owned by very large comglomerates who can cross subsidize if they want to.
I don't know. I do suspect that it will be a bumpy road though.
WWW
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Mr Right rudder
I have no wish to see any company go bust, Ive done that thing and would not like to see it happen to anyone.
However some on this forum seem to think that being in a "low service" airline is safest place to be, I don't see why they would be immune from the situation, WWW looks back to the 80's and talks of the end of Air Europe and Dan-Air forgetting that at that time the "low service" sector was yet to happen and so can't be used as historic evidence.
He also looks down on the Socio economic B's & C's forgetting that the total spending power of this large group of people is far more than the "A" group that he seen slumming it on his low service airline because they cant afford to fly BA club class.
This economic downturn won't get the top of the "A" group out of the Lear jets to fly on a low service airline and you can't base the future of an airline on the class A,s that are feeling the pinch simply because there are not enough of them ! Face it the future is in the hands of the masses and most of them are class B & C.
However some on this forum seem to think that being in a "low service" airline is safest place to be, I don't see why they would be immune from the situation, WWW looks back to the 80's and talks of the end of Air Europe and Dan-Air forgetting that at that time the "low service" sector was yet to happen and so can't be used as historic evidence.
He also looks down on the Socio economic B's & C's forgetting that the total spending power of this large group of people is far more than the "A" group that he seen slumming it on his low service airline because they cant afford to fly BA club class.
This economic downturn won't get the top of the "A" group out of the Lear jets to fly on a low service airline and you can't base the future of an airline on the class A,s that are feeling the pinch simply because there are not enough of them ! Face it the future is in the hands of the masses and most of them are class B & C.
Well, apart from disputing your assertion of the 1980's examples which were actually from the 1990's and the MYT wobble which was from this decade, I don't dispute and have never maintained that the coming major recession will have anything other than a dire impact on the operations of all major airlines including the low cost sector.
Why you seem to want to start a willy waving competition about which of our employers will win/lose the most is not clear to me.
My comments regards the social profiles of the customer base for different types of airlines are just true. It wouldn't bother me in the slightest if I made a million pounds a year out of a million chavs or a million pounds a year out of one billionaire. I happen to look down on and despise the Chavs of this country on a personal level - but thats just a prejudice that I have to labour under. Just because someone drives Chavs, Cargo, Students, City Folk or Royalty around I don't think I either look down or up at them as a fellow pilot. Same as flying a 747 impresses me no more than flying a 717.
WWW
Why you seem to want to start a willy waving competition about which of our employers will win/lose the most is not clear to me.
My comments regards the social profiles of the customer base for different types of airlines are just true. It wouldn't bother me in the slightest if I made a million pounds a year out of a million chavs or a million pounds a year out of one billionaire. I happen to look down on and despise the Chavs of this country on a personal level - but thats just a prejudice that I have to labour under. Just because someone drives Chavs, Cargo, Students, City Folk or Royalty around I don't think I either look down or up at them as a fellow pilot. Same as flying a 747 impresses me no more than flying a 717.
WWW
Whilst not wanting to get overly side tracked into a debate about Dan the point is that that is what recessions do. They cause weaker businesses to suddenly fail. The ones that have a muddled brand or inefficient structure. Those whose revenues are weak or whose management are flat footed.
The recession is what pushes them to the wall. Its hardly ever the case that sound businesses with good capital reserves fail as a direct consequence of the cyclical turndown in the economy.
If you believe a recession is happening then predicting the future is merely a matter of understanding particular businesses trading position. Not always easy to do with airlines.
But there are one or two likely candidates.
WWW
The recession is what pushes them to the wall. Its hardly ever the case that sound businesses with good capital reserves fail as a direct consequence of the cyclical turndown in the economy.
If you believe a recession is happening then predicting the future is merely a matter of understanding particular businesses trading position. Not always easy to do with airlines.
But there are one or two likely candidates.
WWW
You think 31/03/2008 2nd qtr £2,956m Total Assets vs £1,793m Total Liabilities is a weak balance sheet? Cash and Short Term Investments total £906m - and this at the end of the winter.
If you think that's a weak balance sheet you're on drugs or don't know much about the airline business.
WWW
If you think that's a weak balance sheet you're on drugs or don't know much about the airline business.
WWW
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http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/...ap5030663.html
"high oil prices could have "dire consequences" for airlines."
"All European airlines will cut back on flights and raise ticket prices, he said, estimating that total capacity will fall about 10 percent over the next year, and average fare prices will go up by about 5 percent. Some airlines may go out of business, he added."
The words above are an estimation, but are there still any people around who are considering an 70k loan for flight training?
"high oil prices could have "dire consequences" for airlines."
"All European airlines will cut back on flights and raise ticket prices, he said, estimating that total capacity will fall about 10 percent over the next year, and average fare prices will go up by about 5 percent. Some airlines may go out of business, he added."
The words above are an estimation, but are there still any people around who are considering an 70k loan for flight training?