Funding Training
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WWW,
I was not trying to offer a nuanced analysis of the whole picture, rather, I was indicating why I don't think the big three are in danger of a precipitous drop in enrolment.
Banks will tighten credit, as they should, but so long as the borrowers are repaying, the banks could care less whether they acheive their dream job or not. Are the borrowers gambling? Yes they are. Are some doing it foolishly? Yes they are. Will they stop because someone posts a dire warning? I doubt it, but that doesn't mean they should not be warned.
Turning to the related topic, the slowdown in hiring will eventually impact by reducing the number of gamblers. This is simple market economics, supply and demand balancing themselves naturally.
The rising foreclosures are the sign of impending recession, which always leads to less holiday traveling and a downturn in the airlines. Wannabees should be very aware then that the employment opportunities will dwindle and the bank will be there expecting repayment. Meanwhile currency and rating validation will need to be maintained while waiting for the recovery.
If it's nuance you want, you need to attach dates to the recession cycle, as market timing is the art of nuance. I fear more for those about to finish training in the next year than I do for those who want to start training say in 2009. Recessions usually last for two years. Those starting training in the second half of a recession will probably be more current and therefore more employable when the recovery begins than those who finished training just as recession was starting. Anyone starting to train during 2008 with a high risk debt gamble is likely to be in for a big shock, as they will finish training mid-recession, have loan payments come due while needing to maintain currency and renew ratings for 1-2 years while stocking groceries at Tesco, since food suppliers are the only industry not totally hindered by recession.
I was not trying to offer a nuanced analysis of the whole picture, rather, I was indicating why I don't think the big three are in danger of a precipitous drop in enrolment.
Banks will tighten credit, as they should, but so long as the borrowers are repaying, the banks could care less whether they acheive their dream job or not. Are the borrowers gambling? Yes they are. Are some doing it foolishly? Yes they are. Will they stop because someone posts a dire warning? I doubt it, but that doesn't mean they should not be warned.
Turning to the related topic, the slowdown in hiring will eventually impact by reducing the number of gamblers. This is simple market economics, supply and demand balancing themselves naturally.
The rising foreclosures are the sign of impending recession, which always leads to less holiday traveling and a downturn in the airlines. Wannabees should be very aware then that the employment opportunities will dwindle and the bank will be there expecting repayment. Meanwhile currency and rating validation will need to be maintained while waiting for the recovery.
If it's nuance you want, you need to attach dates to the recession cycle, as market timing is the art of nuance. I fear more for those about to finish training in the next year than I do for those who want to start training say in 2009. Recessions usually last for two years. Those starting training in the second half of a recession will probably be more current and therefore more employable when the recovery begins than those who finished training just as recession was starting. Anyone starting to train during 2008 with a high risk debt gamble is likely to be in for a big shock, as they will finish training mid-recession, have loan payments come due while needing to maintain currency and renew ratings for 1-2 years while stocking groceries at Tesco, since food suppliers are the only industry not totally hindered by recession.
Thread Starter
You raise a very important often overlooked point - currency.
Wannabes need to remember that the moment they get their license/IR issued the clock starts ticking on their IR and Multi Rating. You have to do the minimum hours and be able to pass the rating test next year. You will have to pay for those hours and that test at your own expense if you have not found an employer in that first year.
If you are down to Aldi beans and only just being able to pay the bank interest then this is where a lot of people come unstuck. Ratings are allowed to lapse, currency evaporates and you stand a diminishing chance of being called for interview OR of passing a sim assessment.
Intensively learned flying skills on short courses gets you up to a high standard quickly but some feel that you lose that skill just as rapidly.
Professional flying is a lot about weighing worst case scenarios and planning sensible strategies. Professional Wannabeism is no different.
Good luck,
WWW
Wannabes need to remember that the moment they get their license/IR issued the clock starts ticking on their IR and Multi Rating. You have to do the minimum hours and be able to pass the rating test next year. You will have to pay for those hours and that test at your own expense if you have not found an employer in that first year.
If you are down to Aldi beans and only just being able to pay the bank interest then this is where a lot of people come unstuck. Ratings are allowed to lapse, currency evaporates and you stand a diminishing chance of being called for interview OR of passing a sim assessment.
Intensively learned flying skills on short courses gets you up to a high standard quickly but some feel that you lose that skill just as rapidly.
Professional flying is a lot about weighing worst case scenarios and planning sensible strategies. Professional Wannabeism is no different.
Good luck,
WWW
Thread Starter
Rex, thats lovely.
Good for you, best of luck. You are right that nearly all the people who did the APP course at OATS have got jobs over the last couple of years. Its no suprise really. The industry has been booming. FR and EZY alone needed 800 pilots last year... and pretty much every other airline was hiring.
My main point other than the danger of debt is that past performance is no gaurantee of future performance. For example EZY only needs 80 pilots in the next year and the hold pool already has around 300 in it (so I am told, not verified). That's a big turnaround in itself. FR are parking aircraft for the winter, forcing the majority of new entrants to be contractors and is actively hiring Hungarian pilots.. Virgin have a recruitment freeze on. Thomson and First Choice will be overcrewed during amalgamation. MYT and Cook are muttering about redundancies as part of their merger. Jet2 nor BMIBaby seem to have any significant growth plans for 2008 and Globespan are trying to lay off pilots over the winter on unpaid leave it is reported. Flybe will be following their business plan with some modest growth but their hold pool is quite full and BA will only require a trickle of highly experienced direct entry pilots for 2008.
Meanwhile in Europe giants like Alitalia are teetering on the brink of collapse and others are highly exposed to any downturn in business travel at a time when America is toying with recession and the Euro heads to 1.50 a Dollar...
Just be careful,
Good luck,
WWW
Good for you, best of luck. You are right that nearly all the people who did the APP course at OATS have got jobs over the last couple of years. Its no suprise really. The industry has been booming. FR and EZY alone needed 800 pilots last year... and pretty much every other airline was hiring.
My main point other than the danger of debt is that past performance is no gaurantee of future performance. For example EZY only needs 80 pilots in the next year and the hold pool already has around 300 in it (so I am told, not verified). That's a big turnaround in itself. FR are parking aircraft for the winter, forcing the majority of new entrants to be contractors and is actively hiring Hungarian pilots.. Virgin have a recruitment freeze on. Thomson and First Choice will be overcrewed during amalgamation. MYT and Cook are muttering about redundancies as part of their merger. Jet2 nor BMIBaby seem to have any significant growth plans for 2008 and Globespan are trying to lay off pilots over the winter on unpaid leave it is reported. Flybe will be following their business plan with some modest growth but their hold pool is quite full and BA will only require a trickle of highly experienced direct entry pilots for 2008.
Meanwhile in Europe giants like Alitalia are teetering on the brink of collapse and others are highly exposed to any downturn in business travel at a time when America is toying with recession and the Euro heads to 1.50 a Dollar...
Just be careful,
Good luck,
WWW
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It is said those who ignore the lessons of history are destined to repeat its mistakes. I remember seeing posts on pprune in spring 2001 warning that it wasn't looking like such a great time to train which received a similar reaction. I was ready to start training in 2000, but decided it would be best to put things on hold until the beggining of the start of the next cycle.
We know that the global economy is at the end of its 7 year cycle. The aviation industry is known as a good barometer of the global economy and as the economy slows so will our industry. There is also the Thomas Cook/ Airtours merger slowing things down, and the Thomsonfly/ My Travel merger, the Easy/GB merger, Flybe/ BACON merger, Virgin slowing recruitment, Globespan are in trouble, I could go on. The inevitable bad times are due soon (7 year cycle, last downturn started summer 2001??).
The biggest wisdom I heard on judging whether you will find work at the end of flight training is that there are many variables, such as training results, networking, your FTOs industry links etc, but the one single over-riding factor is the state of the job market at the point when you finish your IR.
We don't know what is coming, but I think it is fair to say that starting flight training is always a gamble, and the odds are looking a little longer at the moment. How big those odds are and whether its best to wait a few years before you "throw the dice" is a matter of personal judgement, and good judgement is an essential quality of a pilot.
We know that the global economy is at the end of its 7 year cycle. The aviation industry is known as a good barometer of the global economy and as the economy slows so will our industry. There is also the Thomas Cook/ Airtours merger slowing things down, and the Thomsonfly/ My Travel merger, the Easy/GB merger, Flybe/ BACON merger, Virgin slowing recruitment, Globespan are in trouble, I could go on. The inevitable bad times are due soon (7 year cycle, last downturn started summer 2001??).
The biggest wisdom I heard on judging whether you will find work at the end of flight training is that there are many variables, such as training results, networking, your FTOs industry links etc, but the one single over-riding factor is the state of the job market at the point when you finish your IR.
We don't know what is coming, but I think it is fair to say that starting flight training is always a gamble, and the odds are looking a little longer at the moment. How big those odds are and whether its best to wait a few years before you "throw the dice" is a matter of personal judgement, and good judgement is an essential quality of a pilot.
Thread Starter
Yeah, fair enough.
Remember though Rex, this thread is read by a lot of Wannabes at varying stages, as such my comments are intended for a wide audience.
Good luck with it all. I wouldn't do Integrated in your shoes but its your choice.
WWW
Remember though Rex, this thread is read by a lot of Wannabes at varying stages, as such my comments are intended for a wide audience.
Good luck with it all. I wouldn't do Integrated in your shoes but its your choice.
WWW
BA will only require a trickle of highly experienced direct entry pilots for 2008.
Thread Starter
150 estimate is a trickle given they are by far and away the largest airline in the country with more pilots than the top five UK airlines below them put together. I also believe that it is towards the upper end of the likely figure and you have to admit that only a proportion of them will be 200hr cadets. Thats the view of my mole.
Its not all death and gloom like Sept 12th 2001 was. Not by a long chalk.
WWW
Its not all death and gloom like Sept 12th 2001 was. Not by a long chalk.
WWW
Crikey. In that case I'll let them know next time I'm at work! They're expecting to recruit up to 200 in some years and less than 150 in others but those are the numbers they're working on at the moment.
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And just to confirm...the redundancy level is way down on the original plan at TCX/MYT due to excess flying planned for next year...I think the figure is now only 5 or 6 if that...
And far too early to assess an overcrewed situation in the UK at TOM/FCA...
Right, off to throw myself out of my bedroom window...!!!!
And far too early to assess an overcrewed situation in the UK at TOM/FCA...
Right, off to throw myself out of my bedroom window...!!!!
Thread Starter
And their recruitment plans are.........
WWW
WWW
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...to buyout senior crew members that make big salaries with 1-2X voluntary redundancy package and start recruiting as soon as the ink is dry on the merger, I'd say around January.
That's the rumour on the street.
That's the rumour on the street.
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I am absolutely *&%"Ģing myself about when that time comes to planning funding for the ATPL. Im stressed out at the moment as it is, and ive just got that creeping at the back of my mind.
Being a teenager sucks
Being a teenager sucks
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I suspect that's about as likely as world peace breaking out.
And even if everyone did suddenly refuse to self-fund their training, what would happen? Airlines would have to bring back full sponsorship schemes for their cadets, and would receive hundreds if not thousands of applications for every available place. Result - lots of disappointed people who still have their heart set on flying commercially, some of whom would be prepared to get their licences by any means, i.e. pay for their own training. I can't see it ever changing.
The bottom line is that flying is seen as a dream career, and there will never be enough jobs to satisfy every aspiring pilot. That creates competition for jobs, which in turn creates an employers' market. Twas ever so.
And even if everyone did suddenly refuse to self-fund their training, what would happen? Airlines would have to bring back full sponsorship schemes for their cadets, and would receive hundreds if not thousands of applications for every available place. Result - lots of disappointed people who still have their heart set on flying commercially, some of whom would be prepared to get their licences by any means, i.e. pay for their own training. I can't see it ever changing.
The bottom line is that flying is seen as a dream career, and there will never be enough jobs to satisfy every aspiring pilot. That creates competition for jobs, which in turn creates an employers' market. Twas ever so.
If you could control people enough to make everyone stop funding their own education, I would suggest you use that power to make people stop doing crime instead. That would have a HUGE savings potential for all levels of society even though coppers, judges and lawyers would not like it 
Imagine the huge tax cut you could make! So, in other words, there is about as much chance of a snowball remaining on static display in hell as to make all people in the world refuse to fund their own licence
Imagine the huge tax cut you could make! So, in other words, there is about as much chance of a snowball remaining on static display in hell as to make all people in the world refuse to fund their own licence
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Also begs the question, in my eyes, of WHY? As has been mentioned above, this is considered a "dream" job for many people.....if you want it, go out there (through whatever means) and make it happen for yourself.
Sorry, just gets my goat when people aren't prepared to work for their self styled dream.....can't get or afford to take a loan? How about working for 3/4/5/10 years and saving hard to pay for it before you start?
I have to question how much someone REALLY wants to do this, if they're not prepared to work and save to fund their training or airlines refusing to provide sponsorship programs is considered a dead end to the idea.
After all, if you really really wanted to be a plumber, or an accountant, or a tree surgeon, you may be able to find a company to sponsor you to train, but most accountants etc train themselves and then hope to find a job where additional training needed will be paid for by the co (e.g. Accountancy degree, then Chartered status when you are working someowhere)
Sorry, just gets my goat when people aren't prepared to work for their self styled dream.....can't get or afford to take a loan? How about working for 3/4/5/10 years and saving hard to pay for it before you start?
I have to question how much someone REALLY wants to do this, if they're not prepared to work and save to fund their training or airlines refusing to provide sponsorship programs is considered a dead end to the idea.
After all, if you really really wanted to be a plumber, or an accountant, or a tree surgeon, you may be able to find a company to sponsor you to train, but most accountants etc train themselves and then hope to find a job where additional training needed will be paid for by the co (e.g. Accountancy degree, then Chartered status when you are working someowhere)
