should we discuss fatal accidents?

[IO540]

flying is not necessarily dangeous but a wrong decision will usually be fatal.

Actually, what is fatal (in VFR flight) is not keeping ahead of things and cutting off all your escape routes, through a series of wrong decisions.

Normally, when airborne, one has loads of options. You can go down, up, left, right, or even (psychologically hard, this one) turn back.

There are occassional single errors which turn out fatal but they tend to be when in IMC, like a nav error leading to an incorrect descent.

Does anybody know if the pilot had an IMCR or an IR? Did he use a GPS? One can check pilot qualifications on the FAA website but a G-reg (like this one) is unlikely to be flown by an FAA IR holder.

I agree regarding passengers changing things, Vee-Tail, but I can assure you I have absolutely no intention of killing myself either It would make me avoid a nasty turbulent flight, but one can get those on a perfect English summer day, flying just below the little white fluffy stuff. Rough as hell, perfectly safe but passengers hate it. And one can rarely go above it, due to controlled airspace.

[englishal]

but that would have placed the pilot into IMC, which (it is reasonable to assume) he didn't want.

And that is probably the crux of this sad accident....IMHO of course......

[Pace]

Englishall

From what I have learnt I believe he was a very experienced pilot so should have managed IMC with little problem.

Something made him descend too early and that could be a number of reasons. Aircraft failure, windshear, illness, mistaken position or descending VMC and then trying to scud run???? Most of us have been in situations we would rather not be in and there for the grace of god go We

My instincts feel it was probably flying too low IMC over mountains in strong winds and catching a downdraft which the aircraft could not deal with.
But hey only my instincts which could be way off the truth.

Pace

[IO540]

The radar track, with the Mode C return, would settle most of this, but we aren't going to get that for at least a year!

I would bet on him trying to do a "VFR" flight, intended to be below cloud, and running out of space between the ground and the cloudbase, and then either trying to turn away or even turn around (do the crash photos suggest his heading at the time of impact, and is it consistent with the journey), or climbing into IMC and hitting something.

I say this only because it is far more common than a competent instrument pilot doing a CFIT. Such pilots do know how to draw a line on the map, add 1000ft to the highest bits, and fly at/above that level. If in IMC anyway, it's a case of in for a penny in for a pound so you may as well fly high enough. Airspace was not an issue on that route, from what I can see. And instrument pilots do not descend in IMC unless they are close to the destination, when they execute some sort of DIY instrument approach.

But who knows? Maybe he did simply descend too early. I bet ATC knew the answer immediately, but it won't be published for ages.

I do like my big GPS running copies of the real printed VFR charts, with elevations on them...

[wigglyamp]

"And instrument pilots do not descend in IMC unless they are close to the destination, when they execute some sort of DIY instrument approach."

Perhaps not always the case - reference the Seneca on approach to Oxford which descended early on a stepped approach and hit trees on a hill-top.

[AMEandPPL]

black October . . . . . . .

Yet another fatality in Norfolk today . . . . what a dreadful month we have had !

Colliding with a tractor is REALLY unusual. It will be interesting to see what the AAIB makes of this one in due course.

[dublinpilot]

When considering IMC conditions, remember that the IMCR is not valid in Irish airspace.

Staying high over those mountains will generaly require a clearance into Dublin class C.

I've no idea of the qualifications of this pilot, but I would imagine that any IMCR pilot (as distinct to an IR pilot) would be reluctant to request a clearance into IMC conditions in class C if they knew it was illegal, especially so if they thought it was possible to complete VFR below cloud.

This enters into the area of hypothetical really, as I've no idea of the pilots qualifications. In fact it's probably unlikely given that they signed off with Dublin ATC. But something that should be borne in mind when considering IMC issues.

dp

[IO540]

It is however true that pilots who are instrument capable (no idea if this one was) tend to be quite happy to fly in IMC anywhere, UK or not. The IFR privileges of the IMCR are limited to UK airspace but that doesn't stop many people.

The trick is to do this only enroute. If one turns up at the destination, an ATC airport, which is OVC005, and the pilot is at FL100 and calls up for a "VFR" arrival, he looks a bit silly

Of course I have no experience of this myself

Whether this practice is responsible for a significant # of CFITs I don't know, but I doubt it. Many times more genuinely-VFR-only pilots get killed through unplanned entry into IMC and losing it. It will however depend on what "instrument capable" means.

[englishal]

If it is a case of hitting a mountain or climbing into cloud, I'd take the second choice. But I am instrument capable despite not having the papers / having the wrong letter on my tail. Of course I have no experience of doing this either

[dublinpilot]

If it is a case of hitting a mountain or climbing into cloud, I'd take the second choice.

But what if your choice was requesting an illegal climb into cloud, and a VFR run below that you felt confident to achieve? Then you may opt for the VFR run.

But of course conditions could change, and climbing back into cloud becomes a much more dangerous proposition at that point.

[IO540]

If one is talking about a VFR to IFR transition, this better be planned as to MSA, otherwise just a climb into cloud could take you into a hill which is hidden in the cloud (unless you are flying an F16 and can climb to the MSA vertically).

Personally I plan every flight as if it was fully IFR, fly it at/above the MSA, and if it is below cloud then one gets a much better view. That is how all flying should be done. Additionally, a plain PPL pilot must not enter cloud, which usually means having to remain below it. One just cannot do this (legally) outside the UK on a VFR flight, and one cannot do it on an IFR flight because one flies those at/above the airway MEAs....

Unfortunately it is obvious that much VFR flight is done way below the MSA. In bad weather (low cloud), it's called scud running. You could fly around the south east UK, on routes where the MSA is say 1800ft, at 1800ft, and most traffic will be seen way below you. These pilots have no concept of "MSA" - they just fly along, enjoying the view, and who can blame them? One just cannot do that in dodgy weather.

Anyway "we" have no idea if any of this is relevant to this accident.

[Pace]

But of course conditions could change, and climbing back into cloud becomes a much more dangerous proposition at that point.

Conditions change?? Pilot X is attempting to fly VFR longdistance Cloudbases are below the hill tops but he thinks "thats ok" I can navigate around the hills.
His destination becomes closer and that urge to get there becomes stronger.

Low level with winds gusting 45 kts the ride is hell. His passenegers are feeling or are sick wings are dropping left and right. Every now and again an even more pronounced air pocket hits the plane and Pilot X bangs his head against the roof.

But now the visibility drops and the cloudbase is all over the shop with wisps of cloud floating past underneith the plane.

Now he cannot any longer see clearly the hill shapes and sides. Patches of rain intensify reducing the vis even further.

He peers at his map unsure of where he is. he looks up and sees a white screen as he realises he has run into a patch of cloud. He is now in extreme danger low level, lost and almost blind.............................

His only way out is to climb into IMC to a safe level and to get radio and radar assistance. If he has NO instrument ability he should not contemplate a journey with those forecasts. Even at the best of times a trip of that length is unlikely to have constant weather along the whole route.

Pace

[DavidHoul52]

His only way out is to climb into IMC to a safe level and to get radio and radar assistance.

There is a small amount of instrument training in the PPL. Surely that should be sufficient to allow a climb while keeping the aircraft level on a horizontal plane and enable a slow turn out of trouble?

[DavidHoul52]

I'm talking about flying into cloud at low level in mountainous terrain. Obviously I don't mean flying back over the sea. Wouldn't it be better to climb to a safe height and fly using the AH and radio for help then continuing and facing almost certain death? Why the training on instruments in the PPL if it cannot be used to save your life?

[DavidHoul52]

As an inexperienced pilot it has reminded me never to put myself into a situation where I could run out of options when flying.

Absolutely.

I appreciate that PPL only teaches the bare minimum on instrument flying but in zero visibility one would have no choice. What I am asking is this - It's often given out that a VFR rated pilot would only have seconds to live if in IMC. Could it be that that is the reason pilots prefer to continue at an unsafe height? Even the basic PPL involves relatively long periods "under the hood". There must be a reason for this training.

I have made a mistake - I am not where I should be. I am in cloud and I know there is higher ground nearby. I am going to climb - instrument rated or not! Maybe I will crash anyway - but at least I have a chance.

[DavidHoul52]

Could it be that he misread the landscape due to the poor conditions and thought he was well over the mountains? He signed off his flight plan yet he was still a considerable distance from his destination. If the headwind was much stronger than he thought his ETA would be incorrect? (This is was happened in the famous accident in the Andes with the football team aboard in the 70's)

[bookworm]

There is a small amount of instrument training in the PPL. Surely that should be sufficient to allow a climb while keeping the aircraft level on a horizontal plane and enable a slow turn out of trouble?

Over flat land in calm conditions, through a couple of thousand feet of stratiform cloud? Perhaps. Over mountains at lowish level in 30G40KT? That's a completely different game. Most instrument rated pilots have never done that -- they're not going to get themselves into that situation.

[Pilot DAR]

A study was done in Canada years ago, and as it occurred during my PPL training, it was in the forefront of our minds back then.

A number (20+-) of eager keen private pilots, each with only the few hours of instrument awareness training they had received during PPL training, were put in a full motion simulator, with zero visual. They were each set off from stable, level flight, with no system failures, to fly instruments unassisted for as long as they could - straight and level only, just keep the thing flying, nothing fancy.

ALL of them spiraled in. I recall the shortest time to loose control irrecoverably was 10 seconds, with the longest being many minutes. The average was 178 seconds, which became the title of the report, and a Canadian mantra for not attempting IMC flight without COMPLETE training and recent experience. Remember, ALL of the pilots lost control and "died".

Who can beat those odds without the proper training? Don't fool yourself, you can't! Sadly the very well known fellow off Nantucket at night a decade or so ago couldn't either, for one of the so many examples....

Pilot DAR

[DavidHoul52]

John Kennedy's son, wasn't it?

Scary in any case.

So I take it best to stay visual if possible even if it means going really low to get out of cloud.

I remember that the PPL training is designed to allow one to turn back out of cloud into visual safely.

[IO540]

Though it is clear to me that many non-instrument rated pilots fly in IMC regularly,

I am not sure that they do. I would say that most pilots who have a lapsed IMCR or a lapsed IR (and I reckon most non commercially employed IR holders are long lapsed) do routinely fly in IMC, and many/most of them do it when abroad too. Strictly legit VFR is so horribly limiting that the temptation to penetrate a bit of cloud here and there is absolutely massive.

As we are now back to the actual accident, I can't help looking at the attitude of that plane and looking at the lack of disruption to the airframe. I'm wondering if it was gliding at the point of impact, it certainly was in a fairly gentle nose down attitude which might have meant a controlled descent or an engine failure. As it doesn't look like there was an attempt to avoid the ground, can one assume it was in IMC already?

I recall reading it went into a peat bog. There is a massive difference in the G force (deceleration) between stopping from 100kt in say 5cm (hitting a mountain) and 2m (hitting soft muck). In the former case, the aircraft usually ends up in many pieces. In the latter case, it could IMHO end up hardly damaged - though the G will still probably incapacitate or kill the occupants.

But you could be totally right; he may have been going very slowly (70kt?). I would not read too much into the nose-down attitude because the gear could have hit first and caused that.

ALL of them spiraled in. I recall the shortest time to loose control irrecoverably was 10 seconds, with the longest being many minutes. The average was 178 seconds, which became the title of the report, and a Canadian mantra for not attempting IMC flight without COMPLETE training and recent experience. Remember, ALL of the pilots lost control and "died".

I recall that famous article. I also vaguely recall that some were very high-hour (but still VFR-only) pilots. However, I do not believe that very basic instrument flight is that hard. As bookworm says, it can be a piece of cake, or it can be really hard work. I have trained, for fun, passengers to fly on the horizon and hold altitude, and most manage it in minutes. My 12 year old son can do it easily on the sim and fly an ILS at the end of it. The really hard stuff is making decisions and doing the radio at the same time. And a decent GPS makes a huge difference; without a GPS, preloaded with the planned route, an entry into IMC is a disaster.

If the headwind was much stronger than he thought his ETA would be incorrect? (This is was happened in the famous accident in the Andes with the football team aboard in the 70's)

And in that more famous "Stendec" accident too. But I simply do not believe that any GA pilot would be such a masochist so as to do this kind of trip in IMC by dead reckoning. That was done in the old days when men were real men and the rest just died, and there was no other navigation option.

So I take it best to stay visual if possible even if it means going really low to get out of cloud.

No, because once you are really low you may not be able to turn around without hitting the ground, or entering IMC. And if you enter IMC having been really close to terrain, you are likely to still be close to terrain when in IMC, and may hit it then. The only option then is a steep climb to MSA - a russian roulette.

The decision to do something (like turn back) needs to be done a long time before things get bad.

In flying, one must always play a long game - VFR or IFR.

When VFR, one must not get into a tight spot IMC-wise. Unless instrument capable, flight IFR-planned, and already at/above the MSA, and stuff like icing is OK, but you don't have any implied CAS clearance and this (trying to avoid a CAS bust while avoiding weather) probably kills many pilots.

When IFR, the game is similar in that one works hard to remain VMC and works to avoid nasty big clouds ahead, or (if not de-iced) any cloud if likely to be freezing. The difference with IFR (I mean proper IFR on an airways flight plan) is that you already have an implicit controlled airspace clearance so CAS is irrelevant. This is why pilots chuck out a chunk of their life to get the IR - the flexibility.