Met Office Weather Forecast? Hmmmmmmm....
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I just google all the weather websites until I find a forecast that looks the most promising. Sometimes the variation is quite amazing.
Beagle, I like the Irish one, haven't seen that one before
Beagle, I like the Irish one, haven't seen that one before
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Bose, no not really, its just that it becomes rather farcical when the Beeb men don't even appear to recognise the incongruity of sometimes giving two totally different forecasts for the same day and not even saying, sorry prople got that a bit wrong. I realise that its difficult to be 100% accurate all the time, but given the amount of "practice" the met office has had in forecasting and the equipment they use, surely its possible raise the accuracy levels a bit.
Or am I being unfair?
Or am I being unfair?
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Prob 30 means they think the stuff will likely not happen but it just might and they need to cover their ar*e. I know an airline pilot whose airline SOP is to ignore all "prob 30 tempo" forecasts.
Under JAR-OPS 1, Prob (30/40) Tempo can be taken as follows;
Deterioration may be disregarded and improvement should be disregarded including mean wind and gusts.
There is a nice table in the AMC document - AMC-OPS-1.297
However, one common thred running through this and previous discussions regarding forecasts is that many seem to forget that it is the pilot in command who decides if the weather is going to be suitable or not. The information they use to make that decision can come from a number of sources and the Met Office is simply one information provider.
If you check all the available information and decide that the weather is going to be nice and sunny but it turns out to be wet and miserable than you have made the error.
The met forecaster looks at the exact same information that is available to all pilots and gives an educated opinion of what they think will happen.
It is nothing more than that - an opinion - and most importantly - they are not going to be at the pointy end of the aircraft to find out the hard way of their opinion is correct.
That is why it is the PIC's opinion with regard to the weather which is the most important.
Looking out the window can sometimes save hours of pouring over TAFs, METARs and Synoptic Charts etc.
Regards,
DFC
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Bose, no not really, its just that it becomes rather farcical when the Beeb men don't even appear to recognise the incongruity of sometimes giving two totally different forecasts for the same day and not even saying, sorry prople got that a bit wrong. I realise that its difficult to be 100% accurate all the time, but given the amount of "practice" the met office has had in forecasting and the equipment they use, surely its possible raise the accuracy levels a bit.
Or am I being unfair?
Or am I being unfair?
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No you are not being unfair, but if you sit and complain on forums rather than complaining to the people directly nothing will change.....
Met Office Working Group
Bose, thought that was what I was just doing!
Met Office Working Group
Bose, thought that was what I was just doing!
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However, one common thred running through this and previous discussions regarding forecasts is that many seem to forget that it is the pilot in command who decides if the weather is going to be suitable or not. The information they use to make that decision can come from a number of sources and the Met Office is simply one information provider.
If he was a better interpreter of the raw data (let's forget for now that the UK MO does not actually make its 3D model - tephigrams - available other than to heavily paying commercial users anyway, so pilots cannot get this data) than the professionals, then he would make a lotmore money than by being a pilot, by setting up a commercial wx forecasting business and selling his forecasts to airlines, supermarkets etc. He could then do everybody a public service by becoming a consultant to the MO and teaching them how to do it better!!!
Whether one likes it or not, the future for pilots is ready made weather data downloaded off the internet - along with notams, filing flight plans, etc. This is what the more clever pilots already do, but it isn't trained in the PPL, and you need a whole collection of websites, most that would be described as 'unofficial', to get the picture.
Regarding admissions of error, the 2230 forecaster on the BBC News last night said something along the lines of "Sorry, we got that forecast a bit wrong" when referring to the fact that the SE England sat under a blanket of low cloud and drizzle the whole day, rather than it all clearing off early afternoon to give us a beautiful end to the day.
(See my comment above re "When forecasts go wrong, it's never in a good way . . . ."!)
(See my comment above re "When forecasts go wrong, it's never in a good way . . . ."!)
niknak
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If you are going to complain you'll have to back it up with facts validated by a qualified individual.
Get an experienced pilot (CFI etc) or similar to log every time that the forecast is significantly wrong. You can take your evidence directly to the Met Offfice, but it would carry more clout if all the statistics were gathered and correllated by a major lobby group (LAA etc).
Get an experienced pilot (CFI etc) or similar to log every time that the forecast is significantly wrong. You can take your evidence directly to the Met Offfice, but it would carry more clout if all the statistics were gathered and correllated by a major lobby group (LAA etc).
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NikNak, Actually.....
The TAFS and METARS are actually performance monitored and if there is a significant deviation then if you file an MOR it will be looked very seriously into including collecting all of the historical data to see if there is a pattern. I raised a couple of examples today and they are going to be looked into. I actually collated a spreadsheet of TAFS and METARS over the 10 days prior to meeting to gather data. You would be suprised at how accurate they actually were.
I have also asked for a change to the 215/415 forms that I think that people will like.
I have to commend the professional way in which the forum is run and the very proactive way in which the Met Office are prepared to interact and work with all of aviation. I am representing the lighter end and they were very interested to listen to and act on feed back from our sector.
The TAFS and METARS are actually performance monitored and if there is a significant deviation then if you file an MOR it will be looked very seriously into including collecting all of the historical data to see if there is a pattern. I raised a couple of examples today and they are going to be looked into. I actually collated a spreadsheet of TAFS and METARS over the 10 days prior to meeting to gather data. You would be suprised at how accurate they actually were.
I have also asked for a change to the 215/415 forms that I think that people will like.
I have to commend the professional way in which the forum is run and the very proactive way in which the Met Office are prepared to interact and work with all of aviation. I am representing the lighter end and they were very interested to listen to and act on feed back from our sector.
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Looking at the rainfall radar is the easiest way of seeing what is really happening as its real time -about 20 mins. If you understood your met exam it will be very reaviling.
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I have also asked for a change to the 215/415 forms that I think that people will like.
I was lucky enough to visit the Ops room at Exeter about 18 months ago and had a 'go' about the change from portrait to landscape for the 215/415 and how difficult it was at the time to set it up for printing. Well, they did something about the printing (getting you to sit & wait while you download the .pdf) but it really annoys me that it's still in portrait. We've a neat row of clipboards with all the wx & NOTAM info on and the 215 sits there either overflowing on to the boards either side or you have to get a crick in your neck to read it.
I'm glad you got a positive response. I'm of the jaundiced view that they are predominately interested in paying customers (I used to be one such) and airline ops. Hopefully your news is that they've gone back to portrait for the 215!
TheOddOne
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Complain
Bose makes a good point in that people should complain when its wrong.
However the only time I have done so, I failed miserably when having paid for a three day forecast and been told the Sunday of my return would be "high winds, very low cloud, rain, thunderstorms and possible gales" across the whole of the south of England, I demanded my money back when I arrived home (in my car) to find it so calm and peaceful that many balloons were flying in the blue cloudless sky.
The met offices response "the forecast was correct at the time based on the information we had, just because we changed it 2 hours after we spoke to you doesn't entitle you to a refund"
So does complaining work, I remain to be convinced.
However the only time I have done so, I failed miserably when having paid for a three day forecast and been told the Sunday of my return would be "high winds, very low cloud, rain, thunderstorms and possible gales" across the whole of the south of England, I demanded my money back when I arrived home (in my car) to find it so calm and peaceful that many balloons were flying in the blue cloudless sky.
The met offices response "the forecast was correct at the time based on the information we had, just because we changed it 2 hours after we spoke to you doesn't entitle you to a refund"
So does complaining work, I remain to be convinced.
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I am sure the MO get thousands of calls from angry grannies every day.
What would be useful, perhaps, is an understanding of what kind of weather is fundamentally unforecastable. Then one would avoid relying on the forecasts.
What would be useful, perhaps, is an understanding of what kind of weather is fundamentally unforecastable. Then one would avoid relying on the forecasts.
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The TAFS and METARS are actually performance monitored and if there is a significant deviation then if you file an MOR it will be looked very seriously into including collecting all of the historical data to see if there is a pattern. I raised a couple of examples today and they are going to be looked into.
I was at the Air Expo today and raised some comments with the team there.
It appears that the performance measures are quite limited - on cloudbase and visibility only.
They have suggested that anyone who has issues with forecasts shoudl raise this with the Met Office, giving chapter and verse as to the TAFs/Airmets etc that were proved wrong.
However, the contract with the CAA is such that there is an effective limit on what is possible. If we want an effective forecast someone needs to pay for it.
My issue is that we are legally required to obtain a forecast prior to flight to comply with the ANO, but I don't think many of us fully understand the limitations of the forecasts provided or the little 'get-outs' the met office uses to explain the failures in accuracy.
Todays little 'chat' with the Met Office reps has convinced me that something needs to happen to improve forecasting for GA to take it beyond the 'horoscope with numbers' we have currently.
An independent analysis of forecasts actually shows that the Met Office could achieve the same performance by stating that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather.
At our club, the business has lost income from people cancelling flights based on Met Office forecasts where timing and extent of poor weather was too pessimistic.
I will now become a wether nerd and will record forecast against TAF/Airmet to do my own analysis.
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Weather forecasting is a liquid science and as such almost impossible to predict with complete accuracy.
What is it with you lot, do you really expect someone else to make all the decisions for you and absolve you of all responsibility?
Like someone said, look at the pressure charts/fronts etc and work it out for yourself.
As for the prob 30 and prob 40 stuff I have usually found that 30 means 'might not happen' and 40 means 'could well happen'.
A weather forecast is just that..a forecast.....not a guarantee.
Don't be such big girls blouses.....
What is it with you lot, do you really expect someone else to make all the decisions for you and absolve you of all responsibility?
Like someone said, look at the pressure charts/fronts etc and work it out for yourself.
As for the prob 30 and prob 40 stuff I have usually found that 30 means 'might not happen' and 40 means 'could well happen'.
A weather forecast is just that..a forecast.....not a guarantee.
Don't be such big girls blouses.....