Kiwi pilot shortage
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: back of the crew bus
Posts: 1,312
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
HardCorePawn
Well... it depends.
Some airlines (ie Ryanair, Easyjet etc) have a Europe-wide presence - not sure what the population of Europe is but it must be in the hundreds of millions.
Others have a smaller catchment area - for example, Aer Arann, who I understand have hired 30-40 pilots so far this year, is essentially a local Irish operation (pop 4 million).
You could say that Air NZ (and by inference the Link carriers) has a population base of several hundred million, when you consider all the countries they fly into.
My point is that the population base has little to do with hiring patterns.
Cpt Link Hog
Yes I am a training captain, no I have nothing to do with NJS, and never flew with Safe (although I would have loved to have had a go in a Bristol Freighter).
Just to put some context around this... can you give me an idea of the population base (ie. potential market size) supporting these regional airlines??
Some airlines (ie Ryanair, Easyjet etc) have a Europe-wide presence - not sure what the population of Europe is but it must be in the hundreds of millions.
Others have a smaller catchment area - for example, Aer Arann, who I understand have hired 30-40 pilots so far this year, is essentially a local Irish operation (pop 4 million).
You could say that Air NZ (and by inference the Link carriers) has a population base of several hundred million, when you consider all the countries they fly into.
My point is that the population base has little to do with hiring patterns.
Cpt Link Hog
Yes I am a training captain, no I have nothing to do with NJS, and never flew with Safe (although I would have loved to have had a go in a Bristol Freighter).
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Somewhere in Indo...
Age: 48
Posts: 166
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
My point is that the population base has little to do with hiring patterns.
Imagine 2 new countries that appeared overnight... Country A with an area of around 10,000,000 sq. Km with a population base of say 700 million that has a relatively even population density... and Country B with an area of 250,000 sq. Km with a population base of 4.5 million, where around 1/4 to 1/3 of that population live in one area of 1,000 sq. Km...
Now we have some regional airlines setting up business in these 2 countries... in which country would you expect the most expansion and therefore hiring?
Granted it is a very simplistic view, and does not take into account terrorism, tourism, politics, war, sporting eventings, seasons, which way the wind is blowing etc. but I think the point is obvious.
Also, of these airlines that were hiring some 250 pilots... any idea how many they had to start off with? I would be interested to see the percentage increases as opposed to the raw numbers... as I would be less impressed if they already had say 6000 (a 4% increase), than an airline in NZ who only hired 10, but only had 60 to begin with (a 16% increase)...
Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics notwithstanding
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: back of the crew bus
Posts: 1,312
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
HardCorePawn
It has a lot to do with uptake by the travelling public... for example, take China. population 1.25 billion... 20% of the world's people live in China. How many airlines are there in China? Approximately 15 (I say approximately because I don't have the time to research it thoroughly, 15 is what I found relatively quickly).
Now if you were to work out the number of aircraft against the population base... well, hiring would have to be in the thousands per airline per year to come anywhere close to a similar comparison with the US or Europe. A simple "population base v airlines" comparison diesn't really work.
It is interesting that when Easyjet and Ryanair started up, their incredibly rapid expansion wasn't fuelled by capturing market share; they created their own market by offering low fares and enabling more people to travel. Hundreds of aircraft and crew, all employed on the basis of a customer base that didn't exist before the airline came to the market.
So the answer is... with the same population base, you create your market, thus allowing room for expansion.
Not sure of exact hiring percentage stats (ie number of existing pilots), but if I come across them, I'll post them. Suffice it to say that expansion in many Euro airlines is rapid, and at least five of them that I know of, are receiving a new aircraft every month, and will do so for a while yet. Does wonders for hiring!
It has a lot to do with uptake by the travelling public... for example, take China. population 1.25 billion... 20% of the world's people live in China. How many airlines are there in China? Approximately 15 (I say approximately because I don't have the time to research it thoroughly, 15 is what I found relatively quickly).
Now if you were to work out the number of aircraft against the population base... well, hiring would have to be in the thousands per airline per year to come anywhere close to a similar comparison with the US or Europe. A simple "population base v airlines" comparison diesn't really work.
It is interesting that when Easyjet and Ryanair started up, their incredibly rapid expansion wasn't fuelled by capturing market share; they created their own market by offering low fares and enabling more people to travel. Hundreds of aircraft and crew, all employed on the basis of a customer base that didn't exist before the airline came to the market.
So the answer is... with the same population base, you create your market, thus allowing room for expansion.
Not sure of exact hiring percentage stats (ie number of existing pilots), but if I come across them, I'll post them. Suffice it to say that expansion in many Euro airlines is rapid, and at least five of them that I know of, are receiving a new aircraft every month, and will do so for a while yet. Does wonders for hiring!
