Peak Oil
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The current crisis in price and the peak oil "train smash" is prompting ,much R&D into alternative fuels. During WWII Germany developed a processs (Fischer-Tropsch) for producing liquid hydrocarbon fuel from any source of hydrocarbon (eg natural gas, coal etc). The production processes were not very effective however the growth in technology has overcome the these problems. The other driver is cost.
In April I had the opportunity of discussing this issue with an engineer on the USAF syn-fuel program. The high price and peak oil has pushed their program ahead to the extent that they have gas turbine engines running on syn-fuel and will fly a B52 later this year powered by syn-fuel. See link below.
NY Times article on USAF syn-fuel program
Planet Ark article
This technology has the potential o convert incredibley vast reserves of gas and coal to liquid HC fuel. Ultimately the issue will be cost and from what I heard syn-fuel will be 80-100 USD per barrel to produce.
Cheers
TH
In April I had the opportunity of discussing this issue with an engineer on the USAF syn-fuel program. The high price and peak oil has pushed their program ahead to the extent that they have gas turbine engines running on syn-fuel and will fly a B52 later this year powered by syn-fuel. See link below.
NY Times article on USAF syn-fuel program
Planet Ark article
This technology has the potential o convert incredibley vast reserves of gas and coal to liquid HC fuel. Ultimately the issue will be cost and from what I heard syn-fuel will be 80-100 USD per barrel to produce.
Cheers
TH
Last edited by Trash Hauler; 15th Jul 2006 at 11:31.
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Chuck,
Agreed. Reading between the lines I think you have more in common with the PO lobby than you realise / reveal!
How is this theory? - The disposable society you speak of has actually led to the surge in Child Care - why? All the **** that everyone absolutely must have (new mobile, PDA, XBOX, Plasma TV [separately funded - ironically - by JH Good Heterosexual Christian Tax Cut, a.k.a. "Baby Bonus"] new Car every couple of years, Home Theatre etc. etc.... it needs two incomes. Kids have to be farmed out somewhere - no wonder so many of them appear to just watch TV, play computer games, eat Junk Food and be socially dysfunctional.
But as Chuck said - it is all for the economy.
Is it so bad if the economy contracts instead of grows? The economicists say yes. But this is what more and more people on a personal level are actually choosing to do - it's call downshifting - reducing workload, moving out of expensive try-hard suburbs, spending time with their kids, re-establishing community links. They seem to love it. Are they smarter and realise that the continual push for growth and productivity is a means with no ends?
Agreed. Reading between the lines I think you have more in common with the PO lobby than you realise / reveal!
How is this theory? - The disposable society you speak of has actually led to the surge in Child Care - why? All the **** that everyone absolutely must have (new mobile, PDA, XBOX, Plasma TV [separately funded - ironically - by JH Good Heterosexual Christian Tax Cut, a.k.a. "Baby Bonus"] new Car every couple of years, Home Theatre etc. etc.... it needs two incomes. Kids have to be farmed out somewhere - no wonder so many of them appear to just watch TV, play computer games, eat Junk Food and be socially dysfunctional.
But as Chuck said - it is all for the economy.
Is it so bad if the economy contracts instead of grows? The economicists say yes. But this is what more and more people on a personal level are actually choosing to do - it's call downshifting - reducing workload, moving out of expensive try-hard suburbs, spending time with their kids, re-establishing community links. They seem to love it. Are they smarter and realise that the continual push for growth and productivity is a means with no ends?
Silly Old Git
Thread Starter
Chevron just announced discovery of new humungous gasfield off the NW WA coast
And...http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/stor...99-951,00.html
Pity no one has come up with a suitable way of using gas in airplanes
Turbine engines run well onnit they use them for maintaining pressure on gas pipelines .
And...http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/stor...99-951,00.html
Pity no one has come up with a suitable way of using gas in airplanes
Turbine engines run well onnit they use them for maintaining pressure on gas pipelines .
Grandpa Aerotart
Agreed ST.
I don't consider myself a greenie and I don't believe GW is happening other than naturally...as my brother in law says "GW? Absolutely happening..what do you think ended the last ice age?"
People who study this stuff suggest there have been as many as 8 'ice ages' in the last 800,000 years...sure sounds natural and cyclic to me.
I don't think our current oil prices are more than manipulation coming on top of a lack of foresight....but am prepared to accept that oil is probably finite...just not that we could burn it up in 150 yrs when mother nature has been laying it down for BILLIONS of years.
But I am REALLY getting sick of marketers, economists and politicians.
If the people running 'the economy' give themselves 65% payrises it's perfectly ok but if 'the population' looks like getting a 3% gross payrise, not even keeping up with published inflation let alone real inflation, then the world is about to end!!
The morons running the Central Bank in Australia think a interest rate hike is called for while 'the population' is drowning under artificially inflated fuel prices!
The FECKING MORONS in Govt suggest there is no 'underlying inflation' being caused by high oil prices when everything we buy is either made with oil or transported by oil...they must really think 'the population' is stupid...they might be right.
And then you look around at the waste..and electricity is the most obvious and wonder who benefits. Can't be 'the population' via employment because power stations became heavily automated 50 years ago...you'd be lucky if the average power station employs more than 50 members of 'the population'.
Must just be 'the economy' I suppose.
Edit:
Wanna hear something really (not) funny?
Pine Rivers Shire Council, along with most, have been encouraging people to conserve water...and they have been...they have conserved so much that it is impacting on Shire revenue and so they are bumping up water rates, among others, by HUGE %s.
When will enough of 'the population' wake up the the stupidity (beaurocrats) that runs our lives?
I don't consider myself a greenie and I don't believe GW is happening other than naturally...as my brother in law says "GW? Absolutely happening..what do you think ended the last ice age?"
People who study this stuff suggest there have been as many as 8 'ice ages' in the last 800,000 years...sure sounds natural and cyclic to me.
I don't think our current oil prices are more than manipulation coming on top of a lack of foresight....but am prepared to accept that oil is probably finite...just not that we could burn it up in 150 yrs when mother nature has been laying it down for BILLIONS of years.
But I am REALLY getting sick of marketers, economists and politicians.
If the people running 'the economy' give themselves 65% payrises it's perfectly ok but if 'the population' looks like getting a 3% gross payrise, not even keeping up with published inflation let alone real inflation, then the world is about to end!!
The morons running the Central Bank in Australia think a interest rate hike is called for while 'the population' is drowning under artificially inflated fuel prices!
The FECKING MORONS in Govt suggest there is no 'underlying inflation' being caused by high oil prices when everything we buy is either made with oil or transported by oil...they must really think 'the population' is stupid...they might be right.
And then you look around at the waste..and electricity is the most obvious and wonder who benefits. Can't be 'the population' via employment because power stations became heavily automated 50 years ago...you'd be lucky if the average power station employs more than 50 members of 'the population'.
Must just be 'the economy' I suppose.
Edit:
Wanna hear something really (not) funny?
Pine Rivers Shire Council, along with most, have been encouraging people to conserve water...and they have been...they have conserved so much that it is impacting on Shire revenue and so they are bumping up water rates, among others, by HUGE %s.
When will enough of 'the population' wake up the the stupidity (beaurocrats) that runs our lives?
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 16th Jul 2006 at 11:42.
Silly Old Git
Thread Starter
Chuck to lazy to google after it but recall somewhere that a load must be kept on generators hence the lighting on otherwise an artificial load is required .
Ill get shot down I know but it goes something like that.
Ill get shot down I know but it goes something like that.
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Originally Posted by tinpis
Makes yer wonder why the isnt some sort of subsidy in place to get trucks/cars etc converted to LPG if there was a serious problem?
Theres tons of the bloody stuff bubblin up in the ocean just off the coast here.
Theres tons of the bloody stuff bubblin up in the ocean just off the coast here.
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Don't give up on petroleum just yet!
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barit1:
The issue of peak oil isn't that we are about to run out rather the ability to supply oil at a rate to meet demand cannot currently be met. The beauty of options such as Fischer-Tropsch is that it provides another source to help meet the demand. This then keeps the price in check.
TH
The issue of peak oil isn't that we are about to run out rather the ability to supply oil at a rate to meet demand cannot currently be met. The beauty of options such as Fischer-Tropsch is that it provides another source to help meet the demand. This then keeps the price in check.
TH
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Agree with you on the options and the fact we have plenty of hydrocarbon based fuel available. Unfortunately as punters we suffer from the high pricing of oil due to the supply/demand and quite frankly my budget has had enough of it!
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This is all because of the greedy Americans.....the USA consumes just over 30% of the worlds oil EVERY DAY..... which is about 19 million barrels a day... In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialised (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode. by 2020 we are projected to need 120 million barrels per day by 2020.
Last edited by archangel7; 21st Jul 2006 at 17:38.
archangel7 and all the other DOOMS DAYERS out there
Economics 101 says there is a fundamental flaw in your and the whole dooms day scenario argument. As demand increases and supply decreases prices rise, yes. But only to a point and that point is fast approaching. If there was a reduction in supply as you would argue this will only speed up the inevitable. Once consumers incomes can’t absorb the ever increasing fuel prices and everything else that goes with it anymore, demand for everything not just fuel will collapse taking the price of oil with it. If you don’t believe me have a look at history. It’s all happened before. And the worst effected countries are usually the emerging markets, i.e. China, India etc.
It is also worth pointing out that the longer oil prices remain high the more the pressure is on to find more oil and alternative fuels. While the use hybrid vehicles and the use of such fuels as natural gas and bio fuels in road transport, which is by far the greatest consumer of oil, is commendable, it is in my opinion only a stop gap measure. I believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
In short high prices are good because it eventually brings everything back into balance and also encourages development in new fuel technology which has been sadly lacking in the last 15 years or so due to very very low oil prices in real historical terms.
Economics 101 says there is a fundamental flaw in your and the whole dooms day scenario argument. As demand increases and supply decreases prices rise, yes. But only to a point and that point is fast approaching. If there was a reduction in supply as you would argue this will only speed up the inevitable. Once consumers incomes can’t absorb the ever increasing fuel prices and everything else that goes with it anymore, demand for everything not just fuel will collapse taking the price of oil with it. If you don’t believe me have a look at history. It’s all happened before. And the worst effected countries are usually the emerging markets, i.e. China, India etc.
It is also worth pointing out that the longer oil prices remain high the more the pressure is on to find more oil and alternative fuels. While the use hybrid vehicles and the use of such fuels as natural gas and bio fuels in road transport, which is by far the greatest consumer of oil, is commendable, it is in my opinion only a stop gap measure. I believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
In short high prices are good because it eventually brings everything back into balance and also encourages development in new fuel technology which has been sadly lacking in the last 15 years or so due to very very low oil prices in real historical terms.
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Originally Posted by archangel7
... Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode...
Remember Paul Erlich of "The Population Bomb"? He was one of many doomsday writers who always seemed to get it wrong, exemplified by this bet with Julian Simon.
(Where's the icon for foot-in-mouth syndrome?)
Originally Posted by 404 Titan
...in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
The problem we face is that, even with massively inflated oil and fuel prices, fuel is still not a very significant cost in running a vehicle. By far the biggest running cost is depreciation, which will only get worse as new technology is thrown at the problem. Technology will only make gradual inroads into improving fuel consumption (there will be no gigantic leap!) so the rate of adoption of new technologies will be about as fast as it is today.
In short, nothing will change very dramatically and the laws of thermodynamics won't change at all.
A
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believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
I was reading in an article on the NGEO that NASA has found evidence for Methane on Mars, which is a petroleum product, so since petroleum exists on Mars; OIL exists on Mars too. does that mean that George Bush and his buddys will go and invade Mars, use tax payers dollars and steal all the oil and get rich?? anyways, I know it sounds crazy, but its just a thought...nahh but seriously about the methane on Mars thing... so when we run out we can go to Mars? hahahah this sounds funny I know, but you never know ay?
Shortage of oil is certainly in the air...I ask you people this, whats the shortage? well.. the demad of oil outstrips the capacity to produce it.And if we dont do something now to prepare for the shortage and deal with it....it is going to be one hell of a ride! It will most prossibly be in my life time and it seems to be very soon!
And as for doomsday.. the way we are going,we arent far away either, But who knows ay?? as we can see people are becoming ever more corrupt, Godless, wicked and cruel. the second coming of christ maybe? if you believe in that stuff. But, what i've noticed from 1998 and now is global warming, melting polar ice caps, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes erupting, etc. major catastrophic earth events....I'ts happening now!
Anyways the biggest load of crap i've heard is the number of the beast mentioned in the biblical book of revelation, is really a date: 06/06/06 or 2006-JUN-6. nothing happened! lol I personally dont think the world will ever end, we just need to be more cautious with they way we treat the planet and more environmentally friendly.. other then that, I strongly believe that Earth will likely be hit by another large stellar body in 2-3 million years, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. Our solar system is presently in a dense region of our galaxy such that the possibility of the Oort cloud being perturbed to send a comet on a collision course is more likely but this could be avoided because aparently NASA has the technology to divert such a collision provided, I think, if only we find the object in enough time. This in my mind could never happen not in another million years or more. The planet might be big but compared to the rest of the universe, the Earth is very small.Compared to a person, on the other hand, the Earth is enormous. It has a diameter of 7,926 miles (12,756 kilometers) at the equator, and it has a mass of about 6 x 1024 kilograms. The Earth orbits the sun at a speed of about 66,638 miles per hour (29.79 kilometers per second). Don't dwell on those numbers too long, though, to a lot of people, the Earth is Inconceivably, mind-bogglingly big. And it's just a fraction of the size of the sun and the sun is a bee’s dick compared to other stars and planets in the universe. These figures are extraordinary and we are not even a pixel to what is out there. That’s why I think it will never happen..In theory, it could hit us. While the threat is real, the odds are in our favor. 1 in 2million chance of it happening! Most comets or asteroids completely miss us or never come close... We are lucky because we have these gigantic planets surrounding us shielding them off... so apart from that people and the oil most definitely running out, I say enjoy the wonderful "lucky" lonelyplanet and Happy Flying
Last edited by archangel7; 21st Jul 2006 at 19:00.
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Originally Posted by archangel7
...I was reading in an article on the NGEO that NASA has found evidence for Methane on Mars, which is a petroleum product, so since petroleum exists on Mars; OIL exists on Mars too...
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Yes, good point
from what I read there is a theory that crude oil or methane - unlike coal and other fossil fuels - could have an inorganic source.. does that mean that there is oil on the moon to? I doubt it very much!
It is a certainty that D-type asteroids HAVE impact on Mars which carry Kerogen, a precursor to 'oil' which is a chemical they use in petrolium. But you never know its just a theory... it could also prove that there was once life forms on Mars? marine life forms.Since it got so hot in Mars the oceans dried out so that could be a reason as to why the Marsis has detected all this.. I don't know much about Mars and chemistry so if I left something out or I misunderstood please fill me in or explain it better otherwise I'll try and find the article tomorrow
:0
from what I read there is a theory that crude oil or methane - unlike coal and other fossil fuels - could have an inorganic source.. does that mean that there is oil on the moon to? I doubt it very much!
It is a certainty that D-type asteroids HAVE impact on Mars which carry Kerogen, a precursor to 'oil' which is a chemical they use in petrolium. But you never know its just a theory... it could also prove that there was once life forms on Mars? marine life forms.Since it got so hot in Mars the oceans dried out so that could be a reason as to why the Marsis has detected all this.. I don't know much about Mars and chemistry so if I left something out or I misunderstood please fill me in or explain it better otherwise I'll try and find the article tomorrow
:0
Last edited by archangel7; 21st Jul 2006 at 19:25.