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Old 12th Jul 2006, 06:57
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Well Chimbu I hope you're right .

For those of us in the GA queue it is , and I don't think I'm alone, a tad worrying and very depressing.

For a couple of years now, we have been shuffling forward at a snails pace and to think that when we finally get to the front, resume in greasy hand, that the door slams in front of us , with a sign saying "sorry you're 10 years too late...

For those of us who have been working long, hard hours, in machines held together with gaffer tape and laughable MR's that are barely day vfr, in all kinds of nasty IFR , being compressed and extended over thousands of bumpy miles as chauffers/sherpas to the great unwashed (alive, dead or decomposing, returning to a flea bitten "remote base", going through painful long distance relationships, suffering abuse from the likes of SW (HA to ppruners)... I don't want to think that it has been a waste of time.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 07:05
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Oh my god, spare us the sob story. The GA queue is the shortest its been for a long long time.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 07:13
  #43 (permalink)  

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indeed...if, and I think it is likely, we see a world correction and hiring of pilots dries up for a while it will be no different in effect, if not cause, to what has happened to most of us at one time in our careers or another.

That's just life. Some of us, me included, spent 10+ years in GA. Personally I had a ball but having said that would prefer not to go back to it again...but I would if it was the only option.

I did end up for a short while flying Conquests in between jet jobs a few years ago...I LOVED the fun flying it was just the pay that was hard to take.

The long boom we have been experiencing has fed unrealistic expectations into the bottom end of the system...neither the boom times or the expectations are sustainable.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 08:11
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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cough cough "biodiesel" cough
if my memory serves me correctly, then BP have promised to increase biodiesel production to about 800,000 Ltrs! PA.

Modern airliners will still bore holes through the sky, but with turbines modified to run on Biodiesel or other similar fuel such as ethanol etc etc, just think of all the fuel we could produce in OZ with 75% of our coastal farming land being full of nothing but Sugar!

no oil = very much less global warming,
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 08:32
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Chuck,

I would have picked you as one taking a more scientific approach to the Peak Oil question.

Genuinley, I am curious as to how you arrived a the position of dismissing the (many and growing number of) doomsayers.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 09:54
  #46 (permalink)  

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Easy.

Stephen H. Schneider, a leading climate change advocate, said in an interview for Discover Magazine in 1989...

"On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but - which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both." [my emphasis added]
You cannot divorce science from our own human fears when those fears are so deeply rooted as to be subconcious.

The news media love a sensationalist story to 'entertain' their audience. People write books of doomsday scenarios and make a crap load of money. Take a look at the constant barrage of doomsday scenario programing on Discovery and National Geographic channels. They dish up a near constant stream of disaster scenarios where the world will end from perfect storms, meteors colliding with the earth, bird flu pandemics and an, and on!

And they are scientific channels!!!

The less sensationalist, scientific based stuff hardly gets a run because it is not 'sexy' enough.

Do a google search on Peak Oil and you need to wade through 100's of site proclaiming the world is about to end as we know it before finally finding one or two that suggest an alternative view.

Why should one view be held up at the expense of the other?

How the hell are you supposed to get a balanced view when the nutters are getting all the attention?

Somewhere on D&G recently someone posted that in a conference on Peak Oil in Vienna or somewhere the scientific audience made of of geologists etc was asked 'who believed that peak oil was real'? or something similar and 'approximately half' the experts in the room raised their hands. This is presented as proof positive that it is 'gaining widespread acceptance'.... But half the people didn't raise their hands...the unwriten assumption is...ahhh but they must be the delusional half that are just to stupid to see the writing on the wall.

Yeah...why?

On a recent flight the captain asked me whether I thought "We were destroying the future for our children?"

I answered no.

There ensued a VERY LONG conversation about GW and PO and I offered the alternative views my research has indicated are at least as valid as the doomsayer ones.

He got the ****s more and more until we had to change the subject.

What is it in our western psycology that makes some of us angry when we are offered a more optimistic but no less reasonable view of mankinds future on this planet?
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 10:10
  #47 (permalink)  

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Some links from my research

http://mclean.ch/climate/models.htm

http://mclean.ch/climate/Eye_opening.htm

One on Saudi oil

http://www.ceri.ca/Publications/documents/GoE_Oct05.pdf

Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 12th Jul 2006 at 10:52.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 10:55
  #48 (permalink)  

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Chuck, thank you for being the devil's advocate, and bringing some balance to this doomsday thread.

In the early 80's I had the dubious privilege of hearing Dr Miles Dunphy proclaim the absolutely imminent results of Global warming.

By the year 2,000 we would see Australian coastal suburbs facing creeping inundation, and other serious threats to the world as we know it.

Dr Suzuki earned significant personal wealth warning us of the ozone layer and global warming.

We have since established that Ozone layer and holes are a naturally occuring cyclic phenomenon,
not too distant from tides, El Nino, Southern Oscillation Index and other regularly occurring phenomenon.

We've had Ice Ages and global warming, and I predict the sun will rise most mornings next week.

Just as with Greenpeace (a commercial franchise), there is money to be made from reading tea leaves and chicken's entrails.

However, we have the Darwinian ability to adapt, and the intellect to innovate alternatives.

and in closing, back to John O'Brien:

In God's good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.

And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.

It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o'-Bourke.

And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If this rain doesn't stop."


Sift the chaff from the grain, and bring in a politician to save us from something we fear,
so that he can be re elected and ultimately retire a millionaire.

And there's still kerosene bearing shale in abundance waiting.

p.s.

our Government is collecting $0.51 per litre in excise and GST, are they alarmed? When they are, be alarmed.

M.F.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 10:57
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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OK,

But would you agree (Oh **** I sound like you know you), that the media 'hype' is a fairly new inredient in this argument? After all it has been around for ages, and a bit more 'under the radar'?

What do those in the 'doomsayers' camp have to gain if they are right - apart from glibly living with the devastation they predict? Surley it is not just to sell books and push their cars around with a smug 'I-told-you-so' smirk?

I am not arguing who is right or wrong by the way - just curious as to how others see the 'motivation'of the 'messengers'.

And how does one argue against the scienctific legitimacy of Hubberts Peak, when the decline in the US Oil reserves appears to have been well predicted, using the same prinicples, and apparently proven correct?
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 11:04
  #50 (permalink)  

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****su, you're getting warm and close to the mark.

"I am not arguing who is right or wrong by the way - just curious as to how others see the 'motivation'of the 'messengers'."

Don't shoot the messengers, give them the reward they are seeking, be it recognition or personal gain, for saving us.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 11:14
  #51 (permalink)  

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Another interesting one on GW...I'll hunt out some PO stuff to help answer your question ST

http://mclean.ch/climate/Disputing_Kyoto.pdf

ST that link about oil in my above post is as good as any...it deconstructs the arguments put forward in one of the PO doomsday books currently selling like hot cakes. It also has some interesting writings on the fallacies around privatisation of electricity.

Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 12th Jul 2006 at 13:26.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 11:35
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Thirty years ago Lockheed had advanced designs for a hydrogen powered passenger aircraft based on the L10-11 capacity and design. I think the design failed at that time because oil was less than US$10 per barrel!

There are numerous links to Green Aircraft and a hydrogen powered Dornier 328JET.

Interesting engine developments!

I wonder if the plans will be dusted off and developed into a commercial reality?

Sunny Woomera
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 12:29
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Remember the Y2K problem and how the world was going to descend into chaos as we moved into the year 2000 ?

Seriously though, we and in particular the Americans need to stop wasting energy. Buildings don't need to be airconditioned to the extent were you shiver in summer, and sweat in winter. Do you really need a 5.0 litre turbo charged V8 for driving around the city etc etc etc

Unfortunately the profits and lobbying power of the big oil companies will prevail to get what's best for them.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 13:30
  #54 (permalink)  

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Correct. In fact can anyone recall any doomsday forcaste which has ever been even close to correct?

I cannot.

Y2k =BS,
GW =BS
And now PO...almost certainly BS. Remember we have had doomsday scenarios for PO trotted out 3 or 4 times in the last 150 years. And before that Doomsday predictions for Peak Coal.

We are a very strange species.

This is interesting.


Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 12th Jul 2006 at 13:53.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 14:03
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Chimbu chuckles,

Slight issue with your prediction: oil is indeed much harder to find and extract than ever before - just because there was lots of it once, doesn't mean there will be lots of it forever.

Also, until recently only a very small proportion of the population consumed oil in large quantities - that is set to change drastically as China, India and Latin America emerge. Unless you wish to deny them the use of it?

The real issue isn't the end of oil. It is the greater expense of extracting it COMBINED with an increasing rate of demand. It doesn't take much in the way of price increases to fork ones economy.

As for global warming being BS, suggest you check out our own home grown thread - http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...=233265&page=4

No less, we have never been quite as dependent on oil. It is required for everything. The Mellenium Bug was a farce from square one and everyone knew it. Warnings of our need to curb hydrocarbon dependency have been around for some time, they are just getting more widely accepted.

Last edited by Dave Martin; 12th Jul 2006 at 14:16.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 14:22
  #56 (permalink)  

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I would ask you to carefully read my links above and then tell me you still think there are grounds to panic over global warming.

South America has ****LOADS of oil...yes not much Light Sweat crude but still VAST amounts of heavy and really gloopy black ****.

Back in the 80s the Vietnamese were told by the yanks they had NO OIL. The Russian said we'll find you some and if we don't our search won't cost you a thing...if we do we'll do a deal. Predicably the Viets said cool! The result, apparently using the Russian extremely deep drilling theories/technology is the White Tiger fields off Vietnam.

Can you gaurantee China won't find similar in their VAST country? How comprehensively has China been explored given the geopolitical situation there in the last 50 years?

Has India been explored properly for oil? I don't think so. For years oil companies were not really interested in exploration because oil was too cheap and plentiful to bother. In the last year or so, all of a sudden, India needs lots. If they haven't found lots MORE in India in 5 years I will be surprised.

Greenland has hardly been touched search wise. The geological formations are right they just haven't got around to actually drilling holes in about 98% of the place.

Alaska is virtually untapped and suggestions of eco disaster if (when) it is just reeks of greeny hysteria. What's under the Antarctic?

Iran has discovered two super size oil fields in the last 6 years.

23 out of 86 known fields in Saudi Arabia are currently producing. They haven't even touched the other 50 odd and then there is the rest of that huge sandpit they haven't bother drilling holes in yet....no need.

Iraq is pumping oil at a miniscule % of known current potential and they have vast tracks of their country that they haven't drilled holes in yet....sooner or later things will stabilise there politically and they will start producing at vast rates.

ST

Hubbert's Peak was predicted using 1950s technology. Just earlier this year the oil companies came up with the idea of pumping CO2 into oil wells to get higher returns. They predict that what is left in the current US oil wells could be increased from 22 GB to 90GB. That is 90 billion barrels. The inveterate optimists suggest applying this technology to Alaska etc could make the US a bigger oil producer than the DCs in Saudi Arabia...prolly that is a little too optimistic even for me

Hubbert's Peak keeps getting pushed out by better and better technology.

Can you logically extrapolate worldwide based on what was predicted to happen in the US when, for a goodly long period, they were not EVEN LOOKING very hard in the US, or world wide, because the price of crude did not justify the costs of exploration when cheaper crude was available in the ME?

What i would like to see...and I think they Yanks must do this...is for GWB to apply the same sorts of excise taxes as Oz and the EU apply and make US petrol prices a LOT more expensive than currently.

That would have the following effects.

Help the stupid plicks with their horrendous balance of payments problems and therefore minimise their exposure to an Asian, particularly Chinese, economic bitch slap if they decide to dump the USD.

FORCE the US population into smaller cars the way the rest of the world was 30 years ago. 6% of the worlds population responsible 25% of the oil demand If they could halve that demand the same way Europe halved theirs it would make a HUGE difference.

It would REALLY put the spurs to alternative energies. Common sense suggests viable alternatives to oil are never going to be more than 10% overall. Can anyone really see 75% of the east coast of Australia under sugar cane to produce ethanol? Biodiesel, ethanol, electric, hybryd etc etc can make ahuge difference though.

All of the above would have oil back at $20/barrel again in a relatively short time frame...or if you believe in PO push it back a few hundred years.

Unfortunately it might also get several million brain dead rednecks from bumfeck alabama to lock and load and march on the White House.

Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 12th Jul 2006 at 15:40.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 15:07
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I found the program quite interesting. Bottom line is, I don't expect we're going to run out of oil anytime soon. Most of the program was all doom and gloom, but what more would you expect from the latte sipping, tree hugging, socialist left wing trendies down at the ABC.
An even more enlightening programe is to be aired on SBS tommorow night (now today, 8.30pm AEST I think). It's evidentally about how to save ourselves from the yanks when the joint bases are established up in QLD and at Yampi sound. I think the words rape, pillage, slash and burn were mentioned in the station promo. How typical.
When the yanks do turn up, I'll be first inline to welcome them aboard.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 16:51
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Talking

Chimbu Chuckles: I'm with you but what can we do about the loony left that keep poisoning our society with their jealously inspired theories? They're the ones clouding further exploration whilst we could be simulataneously deriving practical ways in which to keep the planet healthy and clean. An oil installation is alot more tidy and self contained than a sprawling housing estate or a leftist rock concert and all the rubbish, muck and litter left behind. Therefore with careful planning we can have installations in the 'sacred' areas of Greenland, Alaska, etc. It will make no more of a blot than a small fishing village in these areas.

I know, let's all look forward to "Slap a leftie week"......

Last edited by boogie-nicey; 13th Jul 2006 at 10:38.
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Old 12th Jul 2006, 23:09
  #59 (permalink)  
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The link to Saudi Oil given by Chimbu chuckles is very interesting, a lot of information that is for the most part opinions of many senior people in the oil industry. How can the experts, given the same set of facts, come up with such disparate conclusions??.

However, the value of these statements must be related to what we now know as facts.
" 1. The unanticipated surge in demand, particularly in Asia, including the sudden jump in Chinese oil consumption which was unforseen by virtually every analyst."

If the experts, both for and against peak oil, can not forsee such events, how much value can be placed on the remainder of their dissertations??
 
Old 12th Jul 2006, 23:12
  #60 (permalink)  

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How many here were in ADL when that Tidal wave was predicted to hit? I think there may be some candidates amongst us that went up into the hills....
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