Peak Oil
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unfortunately 90% of the world population will have to die..sorry!
Seriously, I'm with you on this, Chimbu. Funny thing, when I was in school, the greatest threat reckoned to be facing the world was another ice age. There is about as much evidence for that, as for global warming.
I'm keeping my V8!
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Well that is unlikely considering we have just been through one. (ice age). Yes I did see the 4 corners episode and think that oil is not running out it is just going to get more expensive that is all.
LPG is more expensive because there is excise on it and gst and now the government is going to stop subsidizing it.
LPG is more expensive because there is excise on it and gst and now the government is going to stop subsidizing it.
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the price of oil
About twenty years ago I saw a thing on the ABC about the alternative petroleum we can have.
Out west of Townsville is country that was inundated with a noxious weed that had gotten away from people's gardens. From memory it was a vine with a pink flower from Madagascar.
This weed had been invistigated by the CSIRO because the milky sap is a form of "petroleum".
The scientists encouraged it's growth and discovered that by letting it lie and dry out after mowing (much like lucern before baling) the water dried out of the stems without loss of the oil.
This made harvesting easier because the bales are lighter.
Once processed the oil could be cracked to get petrol out and it burned cleaner, as it didn't have the nasties that corrode things like buildings.
The CSIRO said that it was a profitable exercize (BACK THEN!!).
The oil companies had donged the whole idea on the head so it never went any further... Now would we believe a thing like that?
After all, our government has done investigations into the oil companies and have found that crude oil goes up in price 10% to 15% every Wednesday at lunch time and those paragons of virtue have to lamentably increase the price of petrol or they'd go broke.
Methinks this "Green" oil might be going to start being produced soon and the poor darlings are getting the big money while they can.
The really interesting part of the story was the area under cultivation required to supply Australia was about 150 Miles square, up there in that reasonably poor country west of Townsville/Cairns AND it was a NOXIOUS weed. Anyone with a bit of land will know about noxious weeds that councils are getting onto them about... Bastards of things are almost impossible to control.
Out west of Townsville is country that was inundated with a noxious weed that had gotten away from people's gardens. From memory it was a vine with a pink flower from Madagascar.
This weed had been invistigated by the CSIRO because the milky sap is a form of "petroleum".
The scientists encouraged it's growth and discovered that by letting it lie and dry out after mowing (much like lucern before baling) the water dried out of the stems without loss of the oil.
This made harvesting easier because the bales are lighter.
Once processed the oil could be cracked to get petrol out and it burned cleaner, as it didn't have the nasties that corrode things like buildings.
The CSIRO said that it was a profitable exercize (BACK THEN!!).
The oil companies had donged the whole idea on the head so it never went any further... Now would we believe a thing like that?
After all, our government has done investigations into the oil companies and have found that crude oil goes up in price 10% to 15% every Wednesday at lunch time and those paragons of virtue have to lamentably increase the price of petrol or they'd go broke.
Methinks this "Green" oil might be going to start being produced soon and the poor darlings are getting the big money while they can.
The really interesting part of the story was the area under cultivation required to supply Australia was about 150 Miles square, up there in that reasonably poor country west of Townsville/Cairns AND it was a NOXIOUS weed. Anyone with a bit of land will know about noxious weeds that councils are getting onto them about... Bastards of things are almost impossible to control.
Sixtiesrelic, is this the vine?
http://www.weeds.org.au/docs/Rubber_Vine_Mgmnt-1.pdf
http://www.weeds.org.au/docs/Rubber_Vine_Mgmnt-1.pdf
Yep. In 10 years time petrol will cost $10 a litre.
A loaf of bread will be about the same, and the guy selling you your $25 value meal at McDonalds will be making $50 an hour.
The only problem is that GD will still be trying to offer $99 fares, and us pilots will be taking incremental pay cuts for each of those 10 years leaving 787 captains earning somewhere in the region of $20k
A loaf of bread will be about the same, and the guy selling you your $25 value meal at McDonalds will be making $50 an hour.
The only problem is that GD will still be trying to offer $99 fares, and us pilots will be taking incremental pay cuts for each of those 10 years leaving 787 captains earning somewhere in the region of $20k
Evertonian
when I was in school, the greatest threat reckoned to be facing the world was another ice age.
Originally Posted by sixtiesrelic
The really interesting part of the story was the area under cultivation required to supply Australia was about 150 Miles square, up there in that reasonably poor country west of Townsville/Cairns.
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Most amazing thing about this thread is how different it is to the exact same one running on the other DG!
This must be the glass 1/2 full thread.
The other one is the ground 1/2 empty thread.
This must be the glass 1/2 full thread.
The other one is the ground 1/2 empty thread.
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Yeah Mariner 9 It was twenty or so years ago I saw the programme, so my fading memory is sus and the fuel requirements now would be more, but it is a way to get the oil from the bullies who have it all now and Oz is a big place.
The CSIRO were in the area where the weed was getting out of control, so it will grow well in a huge zone around that area.
The CSIRO were in the area where the weed was getting out of control, so it will grow well in a huge zone around that area.
Silly Old Git
Thread Starter
Makes yer wonder why the isnt some sort of subsidy in place to get trucks/cars etc converted to LPG if there was a serious problem?
Theres tons of the bloody stuff bubblin up in the ocean just off the coast here.
Do we have to give it all to China so they can fill the world with plastic **** made out of PETROCHEMICALS?
Caught a bit on the news that China is launching a CAR fer christs sake under $10 k in OZ.
We need another bloody CAR?
Theres tons of the bloody stuff bubblin up in the ocean just off the coast here.
Do we have to give it all to China so they can fill the world with plastic **** made out of PETROCHEMICALS?
Caught a bit on the news that China is launching a CAR fer christs sake under $10 k in OZ.
We need another bloody CAR?
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Oil Ain't Runnin Out
This sky is falling, oil induced panic attack by doomsayers is just like the one 30 years ago in the 1970's. I actually thought back then that becoming a pilot would be a waste of time, as oil was close to running out.
The oil squeeze is not because there is a lack of oil, it is because there is a lack of oil production capacity. Just like in Oz there is not a lack of coal, but there is definitly a lack of coal production capacity (world wide also), which has forced the price of coal up also.
Right now oil production capacity is so close to demand that every time supplies are threatened, the market goes spastic.
The oil companies have been caught out by a huge increase in demand from the like of China. It will take 3 - 5 years to increase production capacity to a level high enough above demand, that the market is happy with the level of extra capacity, and the price will fall back to reasonable levels.
Do some reading of serious world finance based magazines, rather than listening to the fast food crap that the popular media is producing, and you will agree with me.
The oil squeeze is not because there is a lack of oil, it is because there is a lack of oil production capacity. Just like in Oz there is not a lack of coal, but there is definitly a lack of coal production capacity (world wide also), which has forced the price of coal up also.
Right now oil production capacity is so close to demand that every time supplies are threatened, the market goes spastic.
The oil companies have been caught out by a huge increase in demand from the like of China. It will take 3 - 5 years to increase production capacity to a level high enough above demand, that the market is happy with the level of extra capacity, and the price will fall back to reasonable levels.
Do some reading of serious world finance based magazines, rather than listening to the fast food crap that the popular media is producing, and you will agree with me.
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Seriously what are you guys thinking......
Here's the new plan, cuzz:
We invade some oil-rich countries, flog their oil, drain the middle east, then concentrate on our own supplies. When that begins to run out, we will allow the development of alternative energy sources which modern technology already caters for.
Meanwhile the camel jockeys will be back in the sand.
Why do you think petrol prices are so high in oil-producing countries......???
It's a no-brainer.
Here's the new plan, cuzz:
We invade some oil-rich countries, flog their oil, drain the middle east, then concentrate on our own supplies. When that begins to run out, we will allow the development of alternative energy sources which modern technology already caters for.
Meanwhile the camel jockeys will be back in the sand.
Why do you think petrol prices are so high in oil-producing countries......???
It's a no-brainer.
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Originally Posted by Capt. Queeg
Why do you think petrol prices are so high in oil-producing countries......??? It's a no-brainer.
It's a no-brainer.Any way, all you people that say there is nothing to worry about. Surly one day we will run out of crude oil. It cant be reproducing itself at the rate we burn the **** off. It has to run out!!. Agree????
Balls
Last edited by ballsdeep; 12th Jul 2006 at 00:59.
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Dunno if I'd believe everything those leftists say. It's about 55c/L in the UAe and Abo Dhabi produces a shed load of the stuff. A lot cheaper than Australian prices, agreed, but not exactly dirt cheap considering they are swimming in the stuff.
Anyway I was referring to western nations....
Alcohol may have befuddled the thinking here.
PS: You screwed up the quote markers in your post.
Anyway I was referring to western nations....
Alcohol may have befuddled the thinking here.
PS: You screwed up the quote markers in your post.
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http://carsguide.news.com.au/story/0...-21822,00.html
AT THE PUMP
(a litre)
Turkey $2.99
Britain $2.40
Denmark $2.23
France $2.19
Egypt $1.96
Brazil $1.70
New Zealand $1.53
MELBOURNE $1.35
South Africa $1.26
United States $1.16
Argentina 81.6¢
Russia 78.2¢
China 73.1¢
Malaysia 71.4¢
Iran 13.6¢
Venezuela 6.8¢
AT THE PUMP
(a litre)
Turkey $2.99
Britain $2.40
Denmark $2.23
France $2.19
Egypt $1.96
Brazil $1.70
New Zealand $1.53
MELBOURNE $1.35
South Africa $1.26
United States $1.16
Argentina 81.6¢
Russia 78.2¢
China 73.1¢
Malaysia 71.4¢
Iran 13.6¢
Venezuela 6.8¢
Grandpa Aerotart
Brunei - Premium .40 cents/liter
Diesel .20 cents/liter
And it has been thus for the last 12 or 14 years apparently....filling my Mitsibishi 'SUV' here is like filling my car was back in the 70s...about AUD$17
Remove all the taxes off petrol/diesel in Oz and the prices would be similar.
It's all very simple people...and not at all sinister, cynical yes but not sinister.
1/. For a bloody long time the oil companies scaled back their oil search activities because the a) crude prices were so low and b) they had already found a shedload of the stuff. Refineries were likewise not built and in some cases closed down...this is changing.
2/. All of a sudden demand went through the roof due mostly to China and India. No-one predicted that.
3/. Futures Trading in oil went from being miniscule to being almost out of control over the last 15-20 yrs. Futures Traders do not deal in oil they deal in what they think the price will be at some point in the future. This time frame can be as short as the time it takes a tanker full of the stuff to go from the wharf near the hole to the refinery on the US Gulf coast or it can be next year or the one after. It is just a form of gambling and adds no value to the product. Futures Trading in Oil has been the reason OPEC cannot control prices anymore despite the known reserves in Non OPEC countries dropping because they stopped looking for the stuff.
4/. At the same time as supply was getting tight due to high demand we got a few hits in the system by way of a few cyclones and accidents at refineries in the states. These things are always happening but usually without all the other factors adding heat to the situation at the same time...so they assume an import that is out of proportion to the event alone.
5/. The futures traders make money in a volatile market so Iran and North Korea are heaven sent for the feckwits at the NYMEX. Does anyone with a brain and the power of independent thought really think Iran with a nuke power stations, or even a bomb, presents much of a world threat? Iranians are intelligent people. They know as well as anyone that if they launch a nuke at Isreal or anyone else the US WILL turn Iran into a glass parking lot....not maybe but without doubt. Likewise North Korea... Kim Jong Il is definately a nutter but is he THAT stupid?
47% of the money in the world spent on stuff designed to kill people and break their stuff is spent by the USA. No one is in a position to take them on militarily and not be bombed back into the stone age. Economically is a different strory
6/. ALL of the above is missrepresented and or missinterpreted by the LUNIES in the appocalyptic Peak oil camp. This is some Judeo/Christian thing which convinces people that the world as we know it must end appocolyptically. Rome, Sodom and Gemmorah etc.
Increasingly the Global Warming Lunies are attracted to the idea of peak oil too. It plays well to their utopian dream of a return to a 1700s era aggrarian society. Some of these nutters are sufficiently extreme in their views that they are actually starting to postulate ways of reducing the population to 'sustainable' levels...Euthanasia of the elderly, sick, genetically damaged etc being just one. Even the White supremicists are jumping on the Global Warming/Peak oil bandwagon. The nutters have always been there too but again, like cyclones and feckups, not with the gravitas to assume an import out of all proportion to their Nutter reality.
Interestingly this appocolyptic outlook does not occur in Asian religions/society....they just get on with life.
Reducing our use of oil somewhat is a good thing and the current high prices will spur research into alternatives. It is spuring the digging of more holes in the ground and more refining capacity...although in Asia that capacity is almost soley aimed at Light Sweat crude rather than the relatively heavy, sulfurus stuff that is produced in the ME and Central America, Mexican Intermediate as an example. That is where the big 'shortages' are as a matter of interest...Light Sweat (easily/cheaply refined into petrol)...there is ****LOADS of the heavier stuff which has reached no where near $70/barrel...although standby because the Futures Traders are just discovering the stuff.
Demand will drop as economic activity drops due to the high prices. We are well and truly overdue for a recesssion (not a depression) anyway. Hopefully the US, with 6% of the world population using 25% of the oil, will see the same C change Europe/Australia saw in the 70s/80s and actually start to regulate petrol prices via taxation the way EU/Australia did which essentially halved the petrol usage in Europe permanently...but probably not
If they don't probably at some point Asia will dump (gently) their USD holdings and give the yanks the recession they so desperately deserve. Not just yet though and not appocolyptically because China doesn't want to damage their own economy with attendant huge civil unrest.
At some point in the next few years supply will again outstrip demand and oil prices will fall...quite probably drastically as supply overshoots demand. Perhaps not back to $20/barrel but $35 is probably a good guess.
Just like after the 70s and 80s oil shocks...which were caused by OPEC showing the west 'who was in charge'. They were wrong.
Interestingly, if it is true, the Russians have satisfied themselves that oil is not actually rotten amoeba and dinosaurs but comes from deaper in the earth and bubbles up through cracks where we have found it in the quantities we have. They have been drilling down 20 odd miles for a very long time in an effort to understand why their 'tapped out' wells were refilling...and finding ****loads more of the stuff. Vietnamese oil wells are apparently an example of this technology.
Interesting also is the increased recovery rates new technology allows. Back 30 or 40 years ago if they got out 30-40% of the oil in a well they congratulated themselves and declared that particular hole well and truly fecked. Use of CO2 to push more of the stuff out while simultaneously burying 'green house' gasses promises to increase known reserves enormously...some figures postulated indicate that the known reserves in the US could go from 22 GB (billion barrels) to 90GB....and that just from holes that were dug ages ago...not including Alaska wilderness etc. Imagine that technology applied to the Ghawar oil Fileds etc in Saudi Arabia which has current 'proven reserves' around 260GB.
Let alone if the Russians are right and the supply of the stuff is actually almost limitless if you dig deep enough?
If I don't sound worried it is because I am not...nor am I racing out to buy land and prepare myself to defend it with a gun while relearning to live like my great, great,great, great, great grandad did.
Diesel .20 cents/liter
And it has been thus for the last 12 or 14 years apparently....filling my Mitsibishi 'SUV' here is like filling my car was back in the 70s...about AUD$17
Remove all the taxes off petrol/diesel in Oz and the prices would be similar.
It's all very simple people...and not at all sinister, cynical yes but not sinister.
1/. For a bloody long time the oil companies scaled back their oil search activities because the a) crude prices were so low and b) they had already found a shedload of the stuff. Refineries were likewise not built and in some cases closed down...this is changing.
2/. All of a sudden demand went through the roof due mostly to China and India. No-one predicted that.
3/. Futures Trading in oil went from being miniscule to being almost out of control over the last 15-20 yrs. Futures Traders do not deal in oil they deal in what they think the price will be at some point in the future. This time frame can be as short as the time it takes a tanker full of the stuff to go from the wharf near the hole to the refinery on the US Gulf coast or it can be next year or the one after. It is just a form of gambling and adds no value to the product. Futures Trading in Oil has been the reason OPEC cannot control prices anymore despite the known reserves in Non OPEC countries dropping because they stopped looking for the stuff.
4/. At the same time as supply was getting tight due to high demand we got a few hits in the system by way of a few cyclones and accidents at refineries in the states. These things are always happening but usually without all the other factors adding heat to the situation at the same time...so they assume an import that is out of proportion to the event alone.
5/. The futures traders make money in a volatile market so Iran and North Korea are heaven sent for the feckwits at the NYMEX. Does anyone with a brain and the power of independent thought really think Iran with a nuke power stations, or even a bomb, presents much of a world threat? Iranians are intelligent people. They know as well as anyone that if they launch a nuke at Isreal or anyone else the US WILL turn Iran into a glass parking lot....not maybe but without doubt. Likewise North Korea... Kim Jong Il is definately a nutter but is he THAT stupid?
47% of the money in the world spent on stuff designed to kill people and break their stuff is spent by the USA. No one is in a position to take them on militarily and not be bombed back into the stone age. Economically is a different strory
6/. ALL of the above is missrepresented and or missinterpreted by the LUNIES in the appocalyptic Peak oil camp. This is some Judeo/Christian thing which convinces people that the world as we know it must end appocolyptically. Rome, Sodom and Gemmorah etc.
Increasingly the Global Warming Lunies are attracted to the idea of peak oil too. It plays well to their utopian dream of a return to a 1700s era aggrarian society. Some of these nutters are sufficiently extreme in their views that they are actually starting to postulate ways of reducing the population to 'sustainable' levels...Euthanasia of the elderly, sick, genetically damaged etc being just one. Even the White supremicists are jumping on the Global Warming/Peak oil bandwagon. The nutters have always been there too but again, like cyclones and feckups, not with the gravitas to assume an import out of all proportion to their Nutter reality.
Interestingly this appocolyptic outlook does not occur in Asian religions/society....they just get on with life.
Reducing our use of oil somewhat is a good thing and the current high prices will spur research into alternatives. It is spuring the digging of more holes in the ground and more refining capacity...although in Asia that capacity is almost soley aimed at Light Sweat crude rather than the relatively heavy, sulfurus stuff that is produced in the ME and Central America, Mexican Intermediate as an example. That is where the big 'shortages' are as a matter of interest...Light Sweat (easily/cheaply refined into petrol)...there is ****LOADS of the heavier stuff which has reached no where near $70/barrel...although standby because the Futures Traders are just discovering the stuff.
Demand will drop as economic activity drops due to the high prices. We are well and truly overdue for a recesssion (not a depression) anyway. Hopefully the US, with 6% of the world population using 25% of the oil, will see the same C change Europe/Australia saw in the 70s/80s and actually start to regulate petrol prices via taxation the way EU/Australia did which essentially halved the petrol usage in Europe permanently...but probably not
If they don't probably at some point Asia will dump (gently) their USD holdings and give the yanks the recession they so desperately deserve. Not just yet though and not appocolyptically because China doesn't want to damage their own economy with attendant huge civil unrest.At some point in the next few years supply will again outstrip demand and oil prices will fall...quite probably drastically as supply overshoots demand. Perhaps not back to $20/barrel but $35 is probably a good guess.
Just like after the 70s and 80s oil shocks...which were caused by OPEC showing the west 'who was in charge'. They were wrong.
Interestingly, if it is true, the Russians have satisfied themselves that oil is not actually rotten amoeba and dinosaurs but comes from deaper in the earth and bubbles up through cracks where we have found it in the quantities we have. They have been drilling down 20 odd miles for a very long time in an effort to understand why their 'tapped out' wells were refilling...and finding ****loads more of the stuff. Vietnamese oil wells are apparently an example of this technology.
Interesting also is the increased recovery rates new technology allows. Back 30 or 40 years ago if they got out 30-40% of the oil in a well they congratulated themselves and declared that particular hole well and truly fecked. Use of CO2 to push more of the stuff out while simultaneously burying 'green house' gasses promises to increase known reserves enormously...some figures postulated indicate that the known reserves in the US could go from 22 GB (billion barrels) to 90GB....and that just from holes that were dug ages ago...not including Alaska wilderness etc. Imagine that technology applied to the Ghawar oil Fileds etc in Saudi Arabia which has current 'proven reserves' around 260GB.
Let alone if the Russians are right and the supply of the stuff is actually almost limitless if you dig deep enough?
If I don't sound worried it is because I am not...nor am I racing out to buy land and prepare myself to defend it with a gun while relearning to live like my great, great,great, great, great grandad did.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 12th Jul 2006 at 06:21.