NATO vs Russia
Not with the cards he currently holds - the Poles alone could probably take him.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Whose?
"What Americans do not yet realize is the shocking extent to which unmanned aircraft of unknown origin are already penetrating restricted airspace and disrupting military operations here in the United States. The situation is so bad that fighter aircraft from Langley Air Force Base were relocated last December due to the collision hazards presented by recurring drone incursions that the Air Force proved unable to stop. This is only the latest instance of Air Force or Navy training activities being disrupted by the presence of unidentified aircraft."
- Hunter Mellon, doctoral student at Harvard Law School, and Christopher Mellon, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence
https://lnkd.in/eiWjNyZr
"What Americans do not yet realize is the shocking extent to which unmanned aircraft of unknown origin are already penetrating restricted airspace and disrupting military operations here in the United States. The situation is so bad that fighter aircraft from Langley Air Force Base were relocated last December due to the collision hazards presented by recurring drone incursions that the Air Force proved unable to stop. This is only the latest instance of Air Force or Navy training activities being disrupted by the presence of unidentified aircraft."
- Hunter Mellon, doctoral student at Harvard Law School, and Christopher Mellon, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence
https://lnkd.in/eiWjNyZr
An Article 5 response is ultimately an American decision. If Putin were to invade one of the Baltic countries I am not at all confidant that there would be enough political consensus to authorize American boots on the ground. That failure to respond would be the end of NATO credibility, a green light to Putin and a fundamental reordering of the post WW2 power structure.
I have got to think that Putin must be tempted to roll the dice on that as the upside for him is so huge.
I have got to think that Putin must be tempted to roll the dice on that as the upside for him is so huge.
After Putin invades the first thing he is going to say is any direct action against Russian forces will result in a nuclear response in their escalate to de-escalate doctrine. Are you really sure the US will call their bluff to save a small and economically insignificant country ? I am not
Your analysis may be flawed. Strikes have been made into Russia including blinding part of their early warning nuclear infrastructure in the form of the Armavir radar station and significant hits on their petrochemical infrastructure.
Nuclear threats are an almost daily occurrence by Russian commentators against both Ukraine and other nations supporting Ukraine.
Could Putin open a credible second front at present? He seems to be struggling to maintain the one he already has, despite the recent poor support for Ukraine from its allies.
Nuclear threats are an almost daily occurrence by Russian commentators against both Ukraine and other nations supporting Ukraine.
Could Putin open a credible second front at present? He seems to be struggling to maintain the one he already has, despite the recent poor support for Ukraine from its allies.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Nothing to see here.
Just perfectly normal russian bottom trawling back and forth repeatedly just on top of the main fiber optic internet cable between Svalbard and the Norwegian mainland.
From NRK.
Just perfectly normal russian bottom trawling back and forth repeatedly just on top of the main fiber optic internet cable between Svalbard and the Norwegian mainland.
From NRK.
It would be a pity if they lost their 'net' to something under the waters.
I don’t share your optimism that that would be the case. For 2 years Russia has been waging unrestricted warfare on civilians in Ukraine a complete violation of the laws of war, yet the West has continued to prohibit use of any Western weapons to retaliate against clear military targets in Russia and has consistently delayed the provision of military aid because of Putin’s threat to escalate to the nuclear option.
After Putin invades the first thing he is going to say is any direct action against Russian forces will result in a nuclear response in their escalate to de-escalate doctrine. Are you really sure the US will call their bluff to save a small and economically insignificant country ? I am not
After Putin invades the first thing he is going to say is any direct action against Russian forces will result in a nuclear response in their escalate to de-escalate doctrine. Are you really sure the US will call their bluff to save a small and economically insignificant country ? I am not
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Well said.i do hope you are correct.
However Putin has been a KGB torturer and a thug. He will always be an aggressor and a bully.
He will have to be taken out. Fom within? Doubtful.
One cannot reason or negotiate with such mentality. Or could he be made to see reason?
However Putin has been a KGB torturer and a thug. He will always be an aggressor and a bully.
He will have to be taken out. Fom within? Doubtful.
One cannot reason or negotiate with such mentality. Or could he be made to see reason?
But looking at the Russian society I have some doubts that what comes after will be much better. Different maybe, also different in style but the general phantom pain of lost Empire seems dominant in big parts of the Russian society and for sure also in the ruling class. And that is what we need to prepare for (besides making sure in the meantime Ukraine doesn't get under the bus).
You seem obsessed with what the US will or will not do. The US is an important part of NATO, but it does not own it and it is not all of it. I would suggest that in the unlikely event that the US decided to sit on its hands (with dire consequences for its standing both in the alliance and in Europe and the Western world generally) the European and Scandinavian part of NATO have sufficient firepower to stop any Russian attack as soon as it crossed the border. We are allies and friends, and it would be impossible to do anything less, regardless of the ravings coming from the Kremlin.
Putin is looking to disrupt NATO. Any perceived weakness in NATO's resolve will only encourage him.
The EU NATO nations may have sufficient firepower but they do not have the integrated command and control, forces interoperability, and logistic depth and breadth to sustain deployed operations. The US provides most of the critical enablers to NATO. I am also skeptical there would be a public appetite from many EU nations to take casualties to save a small Baltic country. I would obviously be very happy to be proved wrong but the various open source reports on the combat readiness state of most EU armed forces is not pretty.
Putin is looking to disrupt NATO. Any perceived weakness in NATO's resolve will only encourage him.
Putin is looking to disrupt NATO. Any perceived weakness in NATO's resolve will only encourage him.
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The EU NATO nations may have sufficient firepower but they do not have the integrated command and control, forces interoperability, and logistic depth and breadth to sustain deployed operations. The US provides most of the critical enablers to NATO. I am also skeptical there would be a public appetite from many EU nations to take casualties to save a small Baltic country. I would obviously be very happy to be proved wrong but the various open source reports on the combat readiness state of most EU armed forces is not pretty.
Putin is looking to disrupt NATO. Any perceived weakness in NATO's resolve will only encourage him.
Putin is looking to disrupt NATO. Any perceived weakness in NATO's resolve will only encourage him.
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
West Coast. Surprising though it may seem to many Americans, there is a world the other side of the Atlantic. Yes, really. The free world is better with the USA on side, agreed, but it can cope without if need be.
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I am also skeptical there would be a public appetite from many EU nations to take casualties to save a small Baltic country. I would obviously be very happy to be proved wrong but the various open source reports on the combat readiness state of most EU armed forces is not pretty.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Poland imposes restrictions on the movement of Russian diplomats in the country
According to Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Russian diplomats will be able to move only within the Masovian Voivodeship (the central region with Warsaw as its capital), while employees of Russian consular offices will be able to move only within the regions to which they are bound.
The restrictions will not affect Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev, the Polish Foreign Minister added.
He expressed hope that other countries would follow Poland's example.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has not yet commented on the decision of the Polish authorities.
According to Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Russian diplomats will be able to move only within the Masovian Voivodeship (the central region with Warsaw as its capital), while employees of Russian consular offices will be able to move only within the regions to which they are bound.
The restrictions will not affect Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev, the Polish Foreign Minister added.
He expressed hope that other countries would follow Poland's example.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has not yet commented on the decision of the Polish authorities.
Poland imposes restrictions on the movement of Russian diplomats in the country
According to Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Russian diplomats will be able to move only within the Masovian Voivodeship (the central region with Warsaw as its capital), while employees of Russian consular offices will be able to move only within the regions to which they are bound.
The restrictions will not affect Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev, the Polish Foreign Minister added.
He expressed hope that other countries would follow Poland's example.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has not yet commented on the decision of the Polish authorities.
According to Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Russian diplomats will be able to move only within the Masovian Voivodeship (the central region with Warsaw as its capital), while employees of Russian consular offices will be able to move only within the regions to which they are bound.
The restrictions will not affect Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev, the Polish Foreign Minister added.
He expressed hope that other countries would follow Poland's example.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has not yet commented on the decision of the Polish authorities.
Re Article 5 and the Baltic states. Early in the Operational Planning Process the planners decide on the enemy’s most likely course of action and their most dangerous course of action with in this case respect to NATO’s security interests.
I agree the most likely Russian course of action is to continue attrition warfare in Ukraine in the hope the West tires of supporting Ukraine. However their most dangerous course of action would be to test NATO’s resolve to collective defence by attacking one of the Baltic countries.
Hope for the best but have a plan for the worst…..
I agree the most likely Russian course of action is to continue attrition warfare in Ukraine in the hope the West tires of supporting Ukraine. However their most dangerous course of action would be to test NATO’s resolve to collective defence by attacking one of the Baltic countries.
Hope for the best but have a plan for the worst…..
Europe is capable of responding to Russian aggression in a NATO States while the US argues about being involved in another European War. Yes, it would be nice to have the US on board, even nicer if they joined in from the start, but that has not always been the case.
For example, American hesitation over providing military aid for Ukraine in order to score points in your domestic political situation, suggests US participation might not be immediate though one would like to hope so.
For example, American hesitation over providing military aid for Ukraine in order to score points in your domestic political situation, suggests US participation might not be immediate though one would like to hope so.
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