Ukraine War Thread Part 2
I stopped believing those 'assessments' long time ago. Probably, RU can´t afford to shoot 30 missiles daily. But, I am sure Russia can continue the war at a lower intensity for many years.
From a cost-benefit point of view it looks something like this for Russia:
https://newrepublic.com/article/1725...russia-economy
Does Putin care about the economic fallout? I doubt it.
From a cost-benefit point of view it looks something like this for Russia:
https://newrepublic.com/article/1725...russia-economy
Does Putin care about the economic fallout? I doubt it.
How many missiles are made in factories not in Russia ?
Stalin moved most factories away from the suburbs of Moscow , two thousand miles east . The surprise the German Nazi army must have been like Napoleon when he got to look at the Volga River and see the devastation that the Russians had done to their own crops .
Putin has used a similar tactic by moving missile manufacturing to North Korea and Irans underground factories . The downside is now North Korea and Iran have missile technology that they could not have developed by themselves . Combined with cheap Chinese strategic materials that could bring regional instability to a lot of places far removed from front lines as defined by the hotel bar media types .
Stalin moved most factories away from the suburbs of Moscow , two thousand miles east . The surprise the German Nazi army must have been like Napoleon when he got to look at the Volga River and see the devastation that the Russians had done to their own crops .
Putin has used a similar tactic by moving missile manufacturing to North Korea and Irans underground factories . The downside is now North Korea and Iran have missile technology that they could not have developed by themselves . Combined with cheap Chinese strategic materials that could bring regional instability to a lot of places far removed from front lines as defined by the hotel bar media types .
Is the West and Ukraine so totally overcome with a need to misrepresent the situation, as to make one wonder where the real truth lies? Perhaps I have not been sufficiently enlightened in these matters and need more fervent indoctrination.
Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?
IG.
Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?
IG.
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I am well aware that truth is the first casualty before and after a war starts, however I fail to understand why, after months of being told that Russia has almost no missiles left, they are still raining down across Ukraine, 30 or so almost every night, It would also seem that when we were being told that Russia is running out of heavy weapons, and a significant number of troops were being decimated, that they are still fielding enough to hold the Donbas, Crimea and other eastern regions of the country.
Is the West and Ukraine so totally overcome with a need to misrepresent the situation, as to make one wonder where the real truth lies? Perhaps I have not been sufficiently enlightened in these matters and need more fervent indoctrination.
Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?
IG
.
Is the West and Ukraine so totally overcome with a need to misrepresent the situation, as to make one wonder where the real truth lies? Perhaps I have not been sufficiently enlightened in these matters and need more fervent indoctrination.
Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?
IG
.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
How many missiles a day could Russian factories produce?
Russia has likely used up its missile stockpiles but has successfully established a production line for fresh munitions.
Fragments from Russian missiles suggest that they have just “left the assembly line,” Defense Intelligence Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitsky said to RBC-Ukraine on May 19.
According to Skibitsky, Russia is able to produce up to 67 missiles per month, including 35 Kh-101s cruise missiles, 25 Kalibr cruise missiles, five M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander-M system, and two Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles.
This means that Moscow successfully managed to acquire components for advanced munitions despite Western sanctions aiming to prevent that.
The Russian military appears to have changed the strategic use of its missile arsenal, Skibitsky further commented.
In winter, the shellings were targeted to cripple Ukraine’s energy structure.
Now, Russia shifted its focus to Ukraine’s air defense, including the newly supplied U.S. Patriot systems, and to disrupting Kyiv’s counteroffensive preparations.
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Its being reported that denmark has cancelled the sale of 18 F-16's to Draken, there is expectation that danes and dutch will announce combined transfer for 40 ish aircraft
It's almost impossible to know what Russia's factories are producing. The fuel oil that powers them must be used. What can't be sold must be burnt to keep the flow going. If the flow stops then the supply wells are lost. It follows that oil will be used in the factories that were always using it whether they are producing anything or not. Must be nice to have an abundance of energy to burn for no other reason that it must.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
#BREAKING: I was informed that, 45 ex-Danish & Dutch F-16AM/BM Fighting Falcon fighter jets will be delivered to the Ukrainian Air Force as an attrition replacement for its lost MiG-29s during the war with Russia.
SABCA in Belgium will overhaul & upgrade the aircraft before delivery.
SABCA in Belgium will overhaul & upgrade the aircraft before delivery.
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That an apparent superpower's invasion of a smaller country has stalled & retreated makes me think that something has run out / been decimated.
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It’s all speculation. A rational decision maker would place a country’s survival at a higher value than the failure to steal another’s territory. The use of nuclear weapons might be justified to preserve the nation’s existence, but to guarantee an imperialistic victory? The risk created by the use of nuclear weapons is retaliation in kind, which is a greater threat to the nation’s existence. So it just doesn’t make sense for Russia to use nukes to avoid losing the conflict with Ukraine which doesn’t threaten Russia’s existence. But does Russia have a rational leadership? So far there’s no evidence of it.
The West should make certain Russia (Putin) realizes going nuclear is suicide. If Biden/NATO waffles and suggests only 'a significant conventional response,' Putin will just be emboldened. He must be made to understand that the response will be in kind. Power is all he understands.
So far this is obviously not working but who knows what things will look like in a year. The most likely scenario is a stalemate with frozen lines. From Russia’s POV this can be spun as a victory.
I think the use of Nukes is increasingly less likely. The blow back would be tremendous, crucially the loss of support from China.
Kremlin goes tac nuke:
- Nuke on Ukraine; No response by anyone (Not likely but it is on the spectrum). Ukraine is upwind of southern Russia, and half a dozen Stans and China. Kremlin gets rude note from the nearest thing to being their friends. The UN does... what it always does, disregard their obligations. Ukraine does... nothing? why? why would they not then open up direct action against the Kremlin with every means to hand? The Kremlin gets ash wherever they lit a candle, and contaminate every waterway ands piece of turf used for food production, including their own bread basket.
- Nuke on Ukraine; NATO sends ground forces into Ukraine IAW UN obligations, (yes they are not obliged under NATO, but they are organised to act, the UN is organised to shine backsides). NATO targets all Kremlin assets in Ukraine and takes out the black sea fleet, Kerch bridge, all rail lines between southern Russia and eastern Ukraine, and every bridge, every airport and every HQ in eastern Ukraine frequented by the kremlins criminal hordes. Unlikely? risky? yup, but better than the next option.
- Russia misses Ukraine - Kremlin fires 1 shot at Poland, or the UK which has been really irritating Putin. Article 5 gets invoked, and in the case of the UK, they have freedom of a nuclear response independent of NATO. Not good. Poland? sayonara to Koenigsberg... the blue comes off the flag there, and they certainly would invoke Art. 5, and demand a response. Least response is item 2 above, France, UK, USA going nuke on Moscow is not a high likelihood without France, UK or USA turf being glassed.
1,999,999. Something else. None of it good and none of it alters the fact that Putin doesn't make friends, or win terrain as a result, and doesn't get xmas cards from anyone else. The RT talking heads will be in the gun for being the depraved individuals that talked the Kremlin into making the worst move in human history, and assuring that a famine occurs in the RF, scores of Russians die from fallout from being downwind of fort fumbles folly, and generally putting the RF into the sin bin for a few centuries. Turning the whole of Ukraine into glass is hardly on the cards, and that means that Russia has guaranteed that people who talk and look like Russians will have murderous intent against their population for the next few decades or so. Imagine a really annoyed Taliban that has been given a true purpose in life to make life miserable for every russian who was submissive to their leaders whims and criminal intent.
There is no military gain from going nuke, and there is every negative that follows from being the one who nuked a neighbour as they were in a tantrum in their cot having lost their rattle on 24 February 2022.
Given the state of play of the corruption in the RF, the probability of a russian TNW/ICBM actually working is a coin toss or less, does anyone think they have reprocessed the cores every 10 years since 1980, when the wheels started to come off the wagon, or from 1991 when it all collapsed into mass decay? The missile hardware, is it more likely or not to be as well kept as the T-72's and BMPs etc were?
The Kremlin trots out their threats every few months, but the underlying limitation of a weapon that will invoke a consequence that is destructive to the user in this case due to geography and meteorology, and will result in a response that is far worse than the justification that is assumed to demand their use remains. One can argue that the final justification to use the A-Bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki failed and resulted in unintended consequences that are the subject of this discussion now. Gar Alperovitz raises credible evidence as to why Japan was attacked, and whether that actually was necessary or indeed met the expected outcome of the justification.
What is most unlikely is a non response, to not respond to a TNW in a manner that immediately and materially stings RF interests in Ukraine is to give over to the ugly bully on the block, and Russia has tried for over a millennia to have that go at empire, with more sour grapes than success to date.
China is the country that will have the greatest impact from fallout after Russia and the 'stans and has historical reason to hit back at Russia, consider that East Russia from Vladivostok to Khabarovsk and out to Sakhalin would need to brush up on their Mandarin.
As the use of nukes is insane, in the current state of decision making in the RF, their use cannot be ruled out, but they do not gain a damned thing for Russia other than decades of guerrilla warfare, famine, breakup of their federation, and loss of land in reparations to China for contaminating western China, and those are the best outcomes. Even if they actually get a form of bargaining benefit from their use, they still lose their federation and have an insurgency for decades to come, and zero utility out of the land that they "came to liberate from the ?Nazi's?".
IMHO
On the bright side, don't need to worry about global warming, or tax returns etc... and we prove that there is zero intelligent life in the universe. Having watched an inert MIRV re-entry, and landing in a target zone, the very thought of their use is unpleasant, 10 years in supporting the MAD status quo didn't improve their standing as anything other than an abomination. That taking heads would suggest their use speaks volumes to the morality of the country.
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It took the US 20 years to be defeated in Vietnam and another 20 years for NATO countries in Afghanistan.
Russia is now embroiled in their own Vietnam and will be for a long while. They probably won't win with force. Nuclear option would be suicide, so must use their powerful propoganda machine to slowly divide NATO countries internally and without while keeping their own compliant.
The information battle is key to them, and they understand it better than us. If the Russian people knew the realities of this war, their unity would crumble. Poor Russians from the East dying in the trenches while the Moscowvites enjoy cocktails, for example.
Our understanding of information attack must improve, otherwise, the threat is we will remain on the defensive until the barrage of Russian propoganda slowly shifts Western public opinion and Ukraine is left to the wolves.
Russia is now embroiled in their own Vietnam and will be for a long while. They probably won't win with force. Nuclear option would be suicide, so must use their powerful propoganda machine to slowly divide NATO countries internally and without while keeping their own compliant.
The information battle is key to them, and they understand it better than us. If the Russian people knew the realities of this war, their unity would crumble. Poor Russians from the East dying in the trenches while the Moscowvites enjoy cocktails, for example.
Our understanding of information attack must improve, otherwise, the threat is we will remain on the defensive until the barrage of Russian propoganda slowly shifts Western public opinion and Ukraine is left to the wolves.
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I don't grant Kremlin propaganda the power that you do. For example it is all over newspaper online 'comments' sections and is so comically transparent that you wonder why they bother. Even Lavrov is openly laughed at when he tries it. It is quickly called out when it occasionally appears here, and will continue to be.
I don't grant Kremlin propaganda the power that you do. For example it is all over newspaper online 'comments' sections and is so comically transparent that you wonder why they bother. Even Lavrov is openly laughed at when he tries it. It is quickly called out when it occasionally appears here, and will continue to be.
It's aimed at the next generation of our (and their) impressionable children, and the currently unified Russians adults. The long game. 20 years?
Concerts, parties, events nearly all have a Ukrainian flag as a backdrop and the awareness of the young of the evil intent of Putin’s Russia and the enormous crime of the Ukranian invasion is high.
You should be more concerned with the attitude of far right Republicans like Trump and co, that are the only crack in the west’s solid and enduring support for Ukraine.
As for this mythical Russian propaganda capability, the nonsense of the average Russian TV host and pundit highlights their irrelevance and total ineffectiveness.
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