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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 26th Jan 2024, 02:13
  #8021 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Thrust Augmentation
Is that correct - do most SAM's not have expanding rod or fragmentation warheads that explode perpendicular to the centreline of the missle / direction of flight? The majority of SAM warhead explosions that show any distinct pattern to the explosion show the primary explosion & an expansion at 90° to the line of flight (90° to what we are seeing here).
Originally Posted by Luc Lion
I think you're right.
But the smoke still comes from the initial fireball and still (mostly) evolves as I described.
That said, it is quite possible that the rod expansion distorts the mushroom but I don't know what can be inferred from the resulting shape.
Go back to watch Gregory Peck in 12-O'clock High... an explosion in the air results in local heating and generally ends up with a smoke cloud that looks like the one here.

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Old 26th Jan 2024, 06:14
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 06:32
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Those look more mushroom-shaped, cap at top, and they do still have directionality to them. Still, if was a SAM coming down, as Paul C suggests...
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 06:34
  #8024 (permalink)  
 
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Germany announced more military support for Ukraine in 2024. Notably 80+ Leopard 1a5's and 450 APV's, and IRIS-T.
Wunderbar!


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Old 26th Jan 2024, 07:05
  #8025 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo

Maybe, just maybe the ghastly Elon Musk's Skynet internet satellites might begin to allow Ruzzia's poor benighted people to finally learn the truth about the world that they don't live in, and see how badly they've been tricked and deluded by their foul diktators in the Kremlin...

.
You do them a disservice calling them Ghastly, without them Ukraine would have been bereft of secure comms, targetting and the ability to control some drones over long distances. Something Russia was and is woefully lacking.

Russia in continuing to hype his global warfare reminds me of the little fat fook in North Korea, starve your population and deprive them of outside information, while telling them everyone is out to get them keeps the population under control, for fear of invasion and losing what little they have, while keeping a few in power.
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 07:29
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The ghastly refers to Musk rather than his satellites? And didn’t Musk shut down one of his systems to foil a seaborne attack by Ukraine?
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 09:25
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
The ghastly refers to Musk rather than his satellites? And didn’t Musk shut down one of his systems to foil a seaborne attack by Ukraine?
It isn't quite as simple as that. Starlink uses geofencing to prevent the use of starlink in Russia and Russian occupied territories in Ukraine. Starlink denied a request by Ukraine to temporarily remove this restriction (around Sevastopol) to coincide with an attack using naval drones. They have stated that they felt that this would cross the line to active participation in the conflict. My understanding is that this has been resolved by the DoD taking out a contract for Starshield that they have then made available to Ukraine.
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 14:43
  #8028 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Those look more mushroom-shaped, cap at top, and they do still have directionality to them. Still, if was a SAM coming down, as Paul C suggests...
Still, seeing that effect would depend on the viewer being at some angle to the flight path; if the rocket were traveling toward or away from the viewer there would be no indication of directionality
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 16:51
  #8029 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
The fireball of this crash is very clearly just a typically slow kerosene deflagration and not an explosive blast so the presence of munitions - especially rockets - on board is pretty unlikely.
Meleagertoo,
please watch again the X video showing the crash from a crossing inside the Yablonovo village and listen to the blast.
I measured the distance using this satellite picture of the crash site.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/25/e...ntl/index.html
The distance is between 6.9 km and 7.1 km (the crash site is large)

When watching the video, think that the fireball is at 7 km distance.
When hearing the blast that triggers a car alarm, think that you are 7 km away.
I very much doubt that this is only a kerosene deflagration.
I still think that there were some HE ammunitions in the plane.
And a large quantity of them.

Last edited by Luc Lion; 26th Jan 2024 at 20:18.
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 17:45
  #8030 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
That clip of the IL-76 going in does not tell the whole story, watch this clip at about 20 secs. missile strike? on board explosion?



https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...97262829568288


Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
Bloody hell, that looks familiar 😊


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Old 26th Jan 2024, 19:50
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In regards to the upside down mushroom cloud formation from a SAM. Remember this clip from over a year ago where a KA-52 was shot down? The cloud looks very similar and you can see the missile coming.

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Old 26th Jan 2024, 19:50
  #8032 (permalink)  
 
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You can see the aircraft at 3-4 secs.just ahead of the white artic.PRETTY LOW AS WELL...
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 20:15
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Originally Posted by Paul C
In regards to the upside down mushroom cloud formation from a SAM. Remember this clip from over a year ago where a KA-52 was shot down? The cloud looks very similar and you can see the missile coming.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/15...DRpbnkmrMsAAAA
Here we are armchair experts debating the whys and where fore's of missile explosions against the backdrop of people dying. It's a funny old war for sure.
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Old 27th Jan 2024, 02:13
  #8034 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
What a picture. Evokes many thoughts, not the least being the crew were likely so very young, far from home, quite possibly scared yet they pressed on.
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Old 27th Jan 2024, 05:37
  #8035 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Luc Lion
Meleagertoo,
please watch again the X video showing the crash from a crossing inside the Yablonovo village and listen to the blast.

I measured the distance using this satellite picture of the crash site.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/25/e...ntl/index.html
The distance is between 6.9 km and 7.1 km (the crash site is large)

When watching the video, think that the fireball is at 7 km distance.
When hearing the blast that triggers a car alarm, think that you are 7 km away.
I very much doubt that this is only a kerosene deflagration.
I still think that there were some HE ammunitions in the plane.
And a large quantity of them.
Apologies, Meleagertoo, I was wrong and I only undestand it now.
The blast that could be heard in the video is NOT the blast of the crash: it's too early and the blast of the crash should be audible 3 or 4 seconds AFTER the end of the video.
If we assume 7 km and a temperature of 0°C, the blast should be heard 21 seconds after the crash.
​​​​​Therefore, the explosion heard on the video can only be the SAM hit against the plane and this event must have happened 3-4 seconds before the start of the video.
Sorry for my mistake.
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Old 27th Jan 2024, 05:50
  #8036 (permalink)  
 
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See #8036....
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Old 27th Jan 2024, 08:58
  #8037 (permalink)  
 
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Are we getting into a similar discussion to the one about how artillery shells travel? The agonising progress as the myriad complexities were explained. How about rocket launched at Il 76, brings it down. The intricacies of a puff of smoke really are of little interest.
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Old 27th Jan 2024, 18:00
  #8038 (permalink)  
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Dear Colleagues:
After thinking about this, the curious case of the British ship moving Russian Naptha - which was hit by a Houthi missile - has been moved to the Unpleasantries thread in Jet Blast.
The core issue looks to be sanctions evasion, and the bad luck of the ship company to get hit while carrying that...so not really fitting into this thread.
Carry on.
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Old 27th Jan 2024, 18:20
  #8039 (permalink)  
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Crikey, from the little Ukrainian drone with two deployable mines to this…

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Old 27th Jan 2024, 18:42
  #8040 (permalink)  
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Grrrrrr..

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