Ukraine War Thread Part 2
Very interesting reading on Ukraine's use of mini-UAVs:
https://www.politico.eu/article/futu...t-newtab-en-gb
... but with perhaps rather grim implications for the future.
https://www.politico.eu/article/futu...t-newtab-en-gb
... but with perhaps rather grim implications for the future.
The following users liked this post:
I'm with you, I believe most posters here are too, unfortunately NATO countries in Europe firmly believe in article V and that Russia wouldn't dare to attack a NATO State. I'm not one of them. I believe that if Ukraine so much as looks like being defeated, Poland will engage and the rest of NATO will just sit on their hands.
Perhaps the fastest way to end this is to let that happen.
Perhaps the fastest way to end this is to let that happen.
Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 4th Nov 2023 at 00:18.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
A Russian soldier hints that the change in the law regarding use of prisoners as human fodder is a ploy to get rid of Girkin.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
Leopard 2A6 spotted sporting turret slat armour.
The following users liked this post:
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
and the fear of it all falling apart might renergise the Wests motivation to give them the means to reach the goal.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
Retired General Ben Hodges admits his timetable for Ukraine to retake Crimea is off due to the fact he cannot believe that the USA and Germany haven’t provided long range weapons yet.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
the US can either assist with billions in cycling timex munitions, or can pay trillions coming from the consequences of a win by Putrid. Would imagine that recycling the old ammo is a better proposition, but then I would have thought that the adults in the house would have suggested that the guy 2 heart failures away from being Prez might want to play out his loopy scheme to defund the IRS and try to explain how that improves the economy of the US.
The following 4 users liked this post by fdr:
A review of the UNHCR numbers shows me over 8 million refugees from Ukraine to elsewhere. How many of them are of age to serve in the military? How many are going back to join up? (There may be answers to these questions, but I don't have them). Some of them might be able to turn help turn the tide, but it's still going to be a grind.
1. One of my neighbours is (was) a Ukrainian male of about 50 yrs old who had hoped he had retired early after he sold his business. He has since headed back to Ukraine (immediately after the unpleasantries started) and we haven't heard anything since. The point being that there is inflow as well as outflow. I also see at other locations Ukraine males of the correct age/ability who are not returning. Point being it is a mixed picture.
2. Some of the outflow have arrived in various places that are also near me. Typically mother + children, often plus grandparents . If one rather simplistically assumes 50% are the children, and that 50% of those children are female that means there are about 2m male children. The war is close to entering its third year, so a quick estimated calc is that 2/18 x 2m = 222,222 male children from Ukraine have in that time reached the age of 18.
3. My personal observation is that the parents of the male Ukrainian children who have reached the age of 18 near me are not encouraging their offspring to return to fight. Quite the reverse. Nor are the children making any independent plans to do so (instead they are planning university educations outside of Ukraine). Whether I am observing an atypical skew in the population behaviour I do not know. (There are very interesting socio-political issues here that may play out, just as they did for draft-avoidance in Vietnam era USA. Witness Trump getting diagnosed with flat feet so as to avoid the draft. How convenient. History teaches us that mostly the more affluent families are the better draft dodgers.)
4. Russian losses are now of the order of 300,000 which appears to be KIA + permanent WIA. My suspicion is that Ukraine's losses are about half that, so there is a likely corresponding replacement requirement of about 150,000 on the Ukr side.
5. Russian population is about 143m - about 2m fled, so say 140m. If you look at Russian demographics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia) then about 750,000 males pass the age of 18 each year (contrast with the approx Russian combat loss rate of 150,000/year). Clearly not all will be medically fit to fight, and clearly many will be unavailable for conscription due to either evasion / corruption / or state reticence (i.e. not pulling in the Moscow & St Petersburg residents), but that would - guesstimate - still allow for 250k-300k per year to be drafted. Enough to fill the force replacement requirements of Russia I suspect.
6. Ukraine population demographics ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine ) are utterly bonkers, and the demographic curve is even crazier than Russia's. You really have to go to that link and take a careful look and you will see what I mean. Nethertheless it suggests about 100,000 males per year reaching draftable age of 18. However (see point #2 above) quite a lot of those may be outside of Ukraine. Let's guess that 50k are reachable and/or willing. (Contrast with the approx Ukraine combat loss rate of 75,000/year). This does not adequately fill the force replacement bucket if the exchange ratio is indeed 2:1. That may be why Ukraine authorities are getting firmer with the various moves to reduce draft dodging within the 18-50/ish population. I may of course have mis-estimated the Ukraine combat loss rate.
7. From a pure manpower perspective I think both parties can continue to fight a static attritional slugfest for many years. The extent to which their respective polities can withstand that is less clear. Or weapons/arms/etc supply issues.
8. And of course the ability of either side to bring the female workforce into the military equation.
The following 4 users liked this post by petit plateau:
Officials also have privately said Ukraine likely only has until the end of the year or shortly thereafter before more urgent discussions about peace negotiations should begin. U.S. officials have shared their views on such a timeline
Nutty,
For balance re the former Central Command Officer's flawed forecast of Ukraine victory by Summer '23.....please to remember that Genreral Miller who was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and President Biden's primary Military Advisor clearly stated Ukraine would lose wiithin a matter of days or a week.....yet he remained the Chairman until he retired a few weeks ago being replaced by General Brown who had been Chief of Staff of the US Air Force.
As to aid to the Ukraine, the new Speaker of the House has split aid to Israel apart from aid to Ukraine which is a commonsense concept.
The use of politics re the IRS poison pill is nothing new in Congress....it is politics....and at some point the Bills shall pass but with amendments unlike in the past where no Amendments were allowed.
One has to be careful when offering comments about the appropriation process of the House of Representatives and other commentary as one might not be providing the full context of a matter.
Also remember the Generals/Admirals who are in charge of Commands (theater of operations) such a Central Command, Southern Command etc) issue the war fighting orders directed to them from the President via the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and its Chairmen are not in that Command loop in a typical direct chain of command method.
Wiki is not my preferred source of information but in this case their "Chain of Command" paragraph contains a nice graphic that illustrates the chains of command that are in place currently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organi...ent_of_Defense
For balance re the former Central Command Officer's flawed forecast of Ukraine victory by Summer '23.....please to remember that Genreral Miller who was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and President Biden's primary Military Advisor clearly stated Ukraine would lose wiithin a matter of days or a week.....yet he remained the Chairman until he retired a few weeks ago being replaced by General Brown who had been Chief of Staff of the US Air Force.
As to aid to the Ukraine, the new Speaker of the House has split aid to Israel apart from aid to Ukraine which is a commonsense concept.
The use of politics re the IRS poison pill is nothing new in Congress....it is politics....and at some point the Bills shall pass but with amendments unlike in the past where no Amendments were allowed.
One has to be careful when offering comments about the appropriation process of the House of Representatives and other commentary as one might not be providing the full context of a matter.
Also remember the Generals/Admirals who are in charge of Commands (theater of operations) such a Central Command, Southern Command etc) issue the war fighting orders directed to them from the President via the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and its Chairmen are not in that Command loop in a typical direct chain of command method.
Wiki is not my preferred source of information but in this case their "Chain of Command" paragraph contains a nice graphic that illustrates the chains of command that are in place currently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organi...ent_of_Defense
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
The amount of Ukrainians that need to return home simply for economic recovery.
re military age I found the links about what imentioned
re military age I found the links about what imentioned
Further to my previous post, the Ukrainians I have spoken to around where I live are more than ready to go back when peace is guaranteed. Most are women and children. What few men we have here are either too old or suffer some form of disability. They feel safe here. Many hold good qualifications and they are prepared to work (many do) and not sponge off the state. I believe that the large majority will return when the time is right for them to do so, but not before. As things are in Ukraine at present, I don't envisage that happening anytime soon.
The following users liked this post:
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,452
Received 3,192 Likes
on
1,339 Posts
Another Leopard 2A6, pretty good looking one too.
The amount of Ukrainians that need to return home simply for economic recovery.
As to retired generals having opinions on TV: I usually take them with a grain of salt, even when they mostly make sense.
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Temporarily missing from the Joe Louis Arena
Posts: 2,133
Received 28 Likes
on
17 Posts
Another Leopard 2A6, pretty good looking one too.
https://twitter.com/markito0171/stat...99621259792824
https://twitter.com/markito0171/stat...99621259792824
Everyone is focusing on Russia's demographic advantage, but seem to have forgotten about what impact this conflict is having on its economy. Only last week yet more capital controls were imposed, suggesting it is in precarious state. Also, the moment Putin falls ill or out of a window, all bets are off.
The following users liked this post:
The Kremlin isn’t just gearing up for a prolonged war in Ukraine, but apparently sees certain economic benefits from such a scenario. Unlike oil, guns drive industrial growth
The following users liked this post:
I too believe that Russia will collapse both economically and militarily, was happens within Russia belongs to them, either way Russians are looking at 3 decades of serious "Hardship"
In the meantime, I see no reason why NATO countries cannot provide Ukraine with Air Superiority over its territory with immediate effect.
In the meantime, I see no reason why NATO countries cannot provide Ukraine with Air Superiority over its territory with immediate effect.
The following 2 users liked this post by Xeptu:
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russian sources report that a Russian Karakurt-class ship Project 22800 was hit in a Ukrainian 🇺🇦 strike today at the shipbuilding yard in Kerch, Crimea
Air defenses were active close to the shipyard and several explosions were heard in the area, which is near the Crimean Bridge
Air defenses were active close to the shipyard and several explosions were heard in the area, which is near the Crimean Bridge