Ukraine War Thread Part 2
It looks to me as if Ukraine has decided not to throw the weight of its offensive at the strength of the Russian defenses in northern Zaporizhzhia; I never thought that was a good idea in the beginning. A set piece battle appears to me to be playing into Russia's strength.
Does anyone else here share the belief that I have - that this offensive will soon bring a major cross river operation in the Kherson area?
It is like observing hanging apple and resisting the urge to pick it too early. But once they move they will launch main attack with full might.
The following 3 users liked this post by Pali:
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Grauniad:
US considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, reports say
The US is strongly considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine to boost its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to multiple news reports that cite Biden administration officials.
Cluster munitions are bombs containing smaller bomblets that scatter as they drop from the air, causing wider damage.
US officials said the decision from the White House was expected soon, CNN reported, while NBC News said it could come as early as next month.
US considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, reports say
The US is strongly considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine to boost its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to multiple news reports that cite Biden administration officials.
Cluster munitions are bombs containing smaller bomblets that scatter as they drop from the air, causing wider damage.
US officials said the decision from the White House was expected soon, CNN reported, while NBC News said it could come as early as next month.
Grauniad:
US considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, reports say
The US is strongly considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine to boost its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to multiple news reports that cite Biden administration officials.
Cluster munitions are bombs containing smaller bomblets that scatter as they drop from the air, causing wider damage.
US officials said the decision from the White House was expected soon, CNN reported, while NBC News said it could come as early as next month.
US considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, reports say
The US is strongly considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine to boost its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to multiple news reports that cite Biden administration officials.
Cluster munitions are bombs containing smaller bomblets that scatter as they drop from the air, causing wider damage.
US officials said the decision from the White House was expected soon, CNN reported, while NBC News said it could come as early as next month.
1) The use of cluster munitions as an effective way to cover a wider area of the target
2) The use of existing , stockpiled munitions which do not need to be manufactured. Since the USA - in line with all the Allies - is using all current capacity for artillery shells, all cluster shells will be extra , badly-needed supplies.
3) This also saves the USA the storage and , perhaps, eventual disposal costs for these munitions as they seem to be observing a self-imposed moratorium on use.
True, which begs the question of where the Russians are re missile inventory. They've been using S-300's as ground attack rockets for a while and most sources indicate production of technical weapons in Russia has been affected by sanctions, although there seems to be a very large black market for Western technical stuff. At some point, if use exceeds production, there has to be a scarcity. At least I hope so.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...n-out-missiles
Join Date: May 2021
Location: UK
Posts: 124
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ukrainians at the ZaporizhzhiaNPP doing drills today in case of a "nuclear accident" and spilllage...
Though watching it I am unsure if they know all the drills, I mean I haven't seen a single broom handle, roll of bodge tape or any plastic sheeting anywhere, and where is the fullers earth to liberally coat each other with........
Seriously though, let us hope they never need to put this into practice for real.
BTW I think they should have masked up the victim first... no good washing it off the outside if he is breathing it in on the inside.
Though watching it I am unsure if they know all the drills, I mean I haven't seen a single broom handle, roll of bodge tape or any plastic sheeting anywhere, and where is the fullers earth to liberally coat each other with........
Seriously though, let us hope they never need to put this into practice for real.
BTW I think they should have masked up the victim first... no good washing it off the outside if he is breathing it in on the inside.
petit plateau,
And here is another very good analysis from Chatham House showing how we must support Ukraine in driving out Russian forces from all Ukranian territory:-
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/d...-ash-et-al.pdf
And here is another very good analysis from Chatham House showing how we must support Ukraine in driving out Russian forces from all Ukranian territory:-
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/d...-ash-et-al.pdf
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,449
Received 3,191 Likes
on
1,338 Posts
Comparing the Rondeli front line maps from June 10th to yesterday (June 28th) shows me that the gains from the Ukrainian offensive are very limited. I see a less than four mile gain south of Velyka Novosilka, and about the same for a narrow salient just east of Robotyne, while the forward progress in the area above Horzove is less than a mile. I'm not buying into the idea that Ukraine is making significant headway by attriting the Russian army with this offensive.
It looks to me as if Ukraine has decided not to throw the weight of its offensive at the strength of the Russian defenses in northern Zaporizhzhia; I never thought that was a good idea in the beginning. A set piece battle appears to me to be playing into Russia's strength.
Does anyone else here share the belief that I have - that this offensive will soon bring a major cross river operation in the Kherson area?
It looks to me as if Ukraine has decided not to throw the weight of its offensive at the strength of the Russian defenses in northern Zaporizhzhia; I never thought that was a good idea in the beginning. A set piece battle appears to me to be playing into Russia's strength.
Does anyone else here share the belief that I have - that this offensive will soon bring a major cross river operation in the Kherson area?
As I read it as an amateur, they are carrying out a slow probing attacks searching for weaknesses in the Russian defence lines.
Once they find a weak point where they can breach through and circle round behind them, cutting off both their supply lines and retreat, while moving against their rear bases, is when I think you will see a greater movement.
An example is the villages overlooking Bakhmut from above, that has forced the Russians to retreat from part of the city and gives Ukraine an advantage.
Personally again as an amateur, I feel the establishing a bridgehead on the far bank of the Dnipro near Kherson is where I can see another attack coming from, it opens up a run into Crimea and the ability to sweep around behind the lines into the Donbas, especially with the supply bridges from Crimea having been damaged the other day.
The only problems in that region is getting in undetected as I seem to remember a lot of the Ukrainians were hit in open countryside that is flat with little cover on the way to liberating Kherson.
Interesting times.
As I see it, this would bring benefits for Ukraine and the USA:
1) The use of cluster munitions as an effective way to cover a wider area of the target
2) The use of existing , stockpiled munitions which do not need to be manufactured. Since the USA - in line with all the Allies - is using all current capacity for artillery shells, all cluster shells will be extra , badly-needed supplies.
3) This also saves the USA the storage and , perhaps, eventual disposal costs for these munitions as they seem to be observing a self-imposed moratorium on use.
1) The use of cluster munitions as an effective way to cover a wider area of the target
2) The use of existing , stockpiled munitions which do not need to be manufactured. Since the USA - in line with all the Allies - is using all current capacity for artillery shells, all cluster shells will be extra , badly-needed supplies.
3) This also saves the USA the storage and , perhaps, eventual disposal costs for these munitions as they seem to be observing a self-imposed moratorium on use.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,449
Received 3,191 Likes
on
1,338 Posts
They had asked for them ages ago as they wanted the bomblets out of them to use individually as drone carried munitions. I would think given the state of play with Russian air cover and manpads, dropping clusters from Jets over russian troops is a death sentence.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rs-2023-03-06/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rs-2023-03-06/
WASHINGTON, March 6 (Reuters) - (This March 6 story has been corrected to delete size of U.S. stockpile and reference to Textron previously making MK-20 cluster bomb in paragraph 15)
Ukraine has broadened a request for controversial cluster bombs from the United States to include a weapon that it wants to cannibalize to drop the anti-armor bomblets it contains on Russian forces from drones, according to two U.S. lawmakers.
Kyiv has urged members of Congress to press the White House to approve sending the weapons but it is by no means certain that the Biden administration will sign off on that. Cluster munitions, banned by more than 120 countries, normally release large numbers of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area, threatening civilians.
Ukraine is seeking the MK-20, an air-delivered cluster bomb, to release its individual explosives from drones, said U.S. Representatives Jason Crow and Adam Smith, who both serve on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee. That is in addition to 155 mm artillery cluster shells that Ukraine already has requested, they said.
They said Ukrainian officials urged U.S. lawmakers at last month's Munich Security Conference to press for White House approval.
Ukraine hopes cluster munitions will give it an edge in the grinding fight against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has said publicly that it wants U.S. cluster munitions. The petition for MK-20s - also known as CBU-100s - has not been reported previously.
Ukraine has broadened a request for controversial cluster bombs from the United States to include a weapon that it wants to cannibalize to drop the anti-armor bomblets it contains on Russian forces from drones, according to two U.S. lawmakers.
Kyiv has urged members of Congress to press the White House to approve sending the weapons but it is by no means certain that the Biden administration will sign off on that. Cluster munitions, banned by more than 120 countries, normally release large numbers of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area, threatening civilians.
Ukraine is seeking the MK-20, an air-delivered cluster bomb, to release its individual explosives from drones, said U.S. Representatives Jason Crow and Adam Smith, who both serve on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee. That is in addition to 155 mm artillery cluster shells that Ukraine already has requested, they said.
They said Ukrainian officials urged U.S. lawmakers at last month's Munich Security Conference to press for White House approval.
Ukraine hopes cluster munitions will give it an edge in the grinding fight against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has said publicly that it wants U.S. cluster munitions. The petition for MK-20s - also known as CBU-100s - has not been reported previously.
True, which begs the question of where the Russians are re missile inventory. They've been using S-300's as ground attack rockets for a while and most sources indicate production of technical weapons in Russia has been affected by sanctions, although there seems to be a very large black market for Western technical stuff. At some point, if use exceeds production, there has to be a scarcity. At least I hope so.
It looks to me as if Ukraine has decided not to throw the weight of its offensive at the strength of the Russian defenses in northern Zaporizhzhia; I never thought that was a good idea in the beginning. A set piece battle appears to me to be playing into Russia's strength.
Agree.
This article has a sensible analysis - with real facts - of the Russian missile/drone situation, and the options available to Ukraine. Wider aviation issues get a good airing.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...n-out-missiles
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...n-out-missiles
I highly doubt the army is going to develop a whole new procedure to break open weapons, so their attitude is likely to be " You want it, you do it " Pretty fair in my point of view.
I thought cluster munitions were no longer considered "proper"
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...ound-the-world
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...ound-the-world
petit plateau,
And here is another very good analysis from Chatham House showing how we must support Ukraine in driving out Russian forces from all Ukranian territory:-
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/d...-ash-et-al.pdf
And here is another very good analysis from Chatham House showing how we must support Ukraine in driving out Russian forces from all Ukranian territory:-
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/d...-ash-et-al.pdf
Thank you. That is very good indeed, and many folk here should take the time to read it.
I thought cluster munitions were no longer considered "proper"
Lots of videos of them doing just that...
These are weapons that have specific uses against massed armour or troops but are eschewed because of the EOD problem. One answer would be to design the sub-munitions to become inert after a set period of time. The BL755 put 147 shaped-charge/frag bomblets into an area the size of 2 x football (UK!) pitches when dropped from 150’. The EOD snag was the dudding rate of up to 10%.
At least the bomblets looked nasty, unlike some of the Russian weapons that have sub-munitions that resemble kids’ toys.
Mog
At least the bomblets looked nasty, unlike some of the Russian weapons that have sub-munitions that resemble kids’ toys.
Mog
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,449
Received 3,191 Likes
on
1,338 Posts
i remember they wanted to drop some off a Jag at Red Flag , I think they had been shipped up from Belize as they were nearing life ex. The Americans refused the request because of the problems associated with clearing up the duds.
You don't understand modern industrial procurement. The Pentagon/Army orders cluster-bombs from the supplier ( Ling-Temco_Voight ? ) so their (Pentagon ) part-no is for a finished bomb including 100 (?) bomblets, and they recognise nothing smaller than a finished bomb. If you wanted to order a bomblet, you would have to go back to LTV, who - if they were efficient - would only order bomblets according to a production/order schedule for finished bombs and therefore have little/no surplus stock.
I highly doubt the army is going to develop a whole new procedure to break open weapons, so their attitude is likely to be " You want it, you do it " Pretty fair in my point of view.
I highly doubt the army is going to develop a whole new procedure to break open weapons, so their attitude is likely to be " You want it, you do it " Pretty fair in my point of view.
I remember the training lecture and video for maintenance of the BL755 (which quite frankly scared the bejasus out of me, and I'm glad it wasn't my job). At regular intervals, according to the maintenance schedule, the complete bomb-unit was placed into a cage which served to prevent inadverent deployment, and each submunition was removed, inspected and, if necessary, replaced. The loadout could also be modified according to evolving technology, tactics, threat, and (not least) philosophy. Obviously this would only be viable if there was a procurement chain in place for the individual bomblets. Similarly, upon decommissioning, the same procedure would have been used to remove and isolate the individual submunitions and the deployment-charge for specialist disposal, leaving the inert bomb-casing to be dismantled separately. I'm no expert on American cluster-munitions, but would be surprised if the same principals did not apply.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Poland announced its intention to deploy American nuclear weapons in response to the deployment of Russian weapons in Belarus
This was stated today by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
"Due to the fact that Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we appeal to all NATO to take part in the Nuclear Sharing program," he said at a press conference after the EU summit in Brussels.
Morawiecki noted that the final decision will depend on American partners.
The NATO Nuclear Sharing program assumes that nuclear warheads are provided to the member states that do not have their own nuclear weapons.
The program is part of the alliance's nuclear deterrence policy. Since November 2019, the program has been providing U.S. nuclear weapons to Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
This was stated today by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
"Due to the fact that Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we appeal to all NATO to take part in the Nuclear Sharing program," he said at a press conference after the EU summit in Brussels.
Morawiecki noted that the final decision will depend on American partners.
The NATO Nuclear Sharing program assumes that nuclear warheads are provided to the member states that do not have their own nuclear weapons.
The program is part of the alliance's nuclear deterrence policy. Since November 2019, the program has been providing U.S. nuclear weapons to Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
The following 2 users liked this post by ORAC: