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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 6th Mar 2023, 16:30
  #15181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
BEWARE UKRAINIAN SOLDIER EXECUTED:

He is seen smoking a cigarette after being captured and says Glory to Ukraine to his captures who then execute him with automatic fire, link here, put not posting so it comes up on the page automatically. Again, choice is yours to watch it or not.
LINK:


More information


https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/6/7392206/
MURDER not execution.
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Old 6th Mar 2023, 16:47
  #15182 (permalink)  
 
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From a statement by the IAEA's General Director:
In the past few months, we witnessed the war’s significant impact on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure when, for the first time, all nuclear sites in in the country lost off-site power simultaneously.

Ongoing military operations and the stressful working conditions at Zaporizhzhya NPP caused by the war, continue to compromise the seven pillars of nuclear safety and security at the plant. Over the past few weeks there has been an increasing security presence at the site. Our team at the plant has reported increases in military action near the facility. There is open discussion about offensives and counter offensives in the vicinity of the site. My simple question is: are we waiting for a nuclear emergency before we react?
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/stat...s-6-march-2023
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Old 6th Mar 2023, 17:00
  #15183 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
BEWARE UKRAINIAN SOLDIER EXECUTED:

He is seen smoking a cigarette after being captured and says Glory to Ukraine to his captures who then execute him with automatic fire, link here, put not posting so it comes up on the page automatically. Again, choice is yours to watch it or not.
It's amazing to me that the Russians don't realize how destructive such "propaganda" is to their own cause. Soldiers are far more likely to surrender than die if they believe they will be treated humanly. If the soldiers have reason to believe that they will simply be killed if they surrender, they'll figure they might as well fight to the death since that's the most likely outcome anyway - and fighting to the death they might manage to take more of the enemy with them.
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Old 6th Mar 2023, 17:21
  #15184 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tdracer
It's amazing to me that the Russians don't realize how destructive such "propaganda" is to their own cause. Soldiers are far more likely to surrender than die if they believe they will be treated humanly. If the soldiers have reason to believe that they will simply be killed if they surrender, they'll figure they might as well fight to the death since that's the most likely outcome anyway - and fighting to the death they might manage to take more of the enemy with them.
I don’t think people (?) that behave like that are capable of very rational thought!
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Old 6th Mar 2023, 17:31
  #15185 (permalink)  
 
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Lone Ukrainian taking on an APC watch the clip, total hero and that word isn’t banded about lightly.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...36450286139230
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Old 6th Mar 2023, 21:47
  #15186 (permalink)  
 
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Now this is impressive, Ukraine flying a new version of a loitering suicide drone into a Russian T80- BV commanders open hatch while it is rapidly on the move.

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Old 6th Mar 2023, 21:59
  #15187 (permalink)  
 
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I ponder the circumstances of him standing, smoking a cigarette and that he was shot so quickly, that his utterance did not trigger his demise, rather, they were the brave words of a man who knew he was before a firing squad. A man of conviction.

Mjb
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 03:41
  #15188 (permalink)  
 
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JDAM are operational in ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nal-in-ukraine
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 03:53
  #15189 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman

Methinks, maybe the Crimean Bridge....?
Himars, in that piece says it has a 200lb explosive. JDAM 2000lb.

Wasn't the previous attempts to take the bridge out done with Himars? Took a few hits, but didn't actually take out the bridge (left holes in it).
But a JDAM certainly would



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Old 7th Mar 2023, 04:11
  #15190 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Obba
Methinks, maybe the Crimean Bridge....?
Howabout doing some basic mathematics ?
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 04:17
  #15191 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Obba
Methinks, maybe the Crimean Bridge....?
Himars, in that piece says it has a 200lb explosive. JDAM 2000lb.

Wasn't the previous attempts to take the bridge out done with Himars? Took a few hits, but didn't actually take out the bridge (left holes in it).
But a JDAM certainly would
No that was the bridge into Kherson, but yes a 2000 pound JDAM would mess up the a crimea bridge
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 08:53
  #15192 (permalink)  
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On the news today "NATO weapons stocks at dangerous levels. Could take 10 years to restock".
Can someone explain why 10 years and why we can't just make more now?
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 09:07
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Originally Posted by uxb99
On the news today "NATO weapons stocks at dangerous levels. Could take 10 years to restock".
Can someone explain why 10 years and why we can't just make more now?
Because it takes time to ramp up production capacity; to achieve a very high increase in production rate you might have to start by designing and building a new factory.
10 years is probably at current production rates, but there'll inevitably be a tradeoff to be made between restocking more quickly vs more cost-effectively.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 09:34
  #15194 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by uxb99
On the news today "NATO weapons stocks at dangerous levels. Could take 10 years to restock".
Can someone explain why 10 years and why we can't just make more now?
As the Ukraine war continues to draw upon the resources of NATO’s western European member states, the UK’s focus is attempting to ensure that domestic stocks are replenished as economies adapt from the just-in-time delivery philosophy.

While western European ammunition stockpiles are generally kept to an amount required to maintain military requirements and replenish out-of-date munitions, war has highlighted the fact that most NATO states engaged in a conflict as Ukraine is against Russia, supply would quickly run short.

The UK is no exception to this. Having donated thousands of Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons (NLAW) to Ukraine, it has had to turn to manufacturer Saab to restart a cold production line.

Thales, the manufacturer of another system delivered to Ukraine, the Starstreak High Velocity Missile system, ceased production at its Belfast site a few years ago, with recent comments made during UK Defence Committee hearings stating that just 60 are left in UK stock. It is not clear whether this refers to Starstreak stock kept at the industry level or units in service with the British military.

Army Technology approached Thales for comment on Starstreak stock and production lines but at the time of publishing had not received a response.

Both Starstreak and Stormer air defence armoured vehicles have been donated to Ukraine.

Speaking before the UK’s Joint National Security Committee on 27 February, Tim Barrow, National Security Advisor at the Cabinet Office, said that the UK “clearly” needed to restock its ammunition.

“We are very conscious of the need to restock,” said Barrow, adding that there was a consideration in not only working with established industrial and national partners, but also those “we haven’t worked much with in the past.”

In December 2022, the UK Government announced that it had agreed a deal for thousands of new NLAW systems to be manufactured in at Thales’ facility in Northern Ireland, part of a £229m deal. The NLAW had been provided to Ukrainian forces at the outbreak of large-scale hostilities with Russia and performed well in the tight confines of the early stages of the war, with up to 10,000 units delivered.

Secured through Defence Equipment and Support – the procurement arm of the UK Ministry of Defence – the agreement will see several thousand units delivered to UK Armed Forces across 2024-2026, in addition to around 500 being delivered in 2023 through a separate procurement.

In February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure was “many time higher” that the bloc’s production rate, which resulted in a corresponding strain placed on industry to meet the higher demand.

Ukraine is understood to be firing around 6,000 artillery shells per day as it attempts to prevent continued Russian efforts to secure the entirety of the Donbas region. Regular donations by Alliance members of ammunition are keeping stocks available, however some of this is being sourced from non-NATO countries, predominantly for use by Ukraine’s Russian and Soviet-era equipment.
https://www.army-technology.com/news...on-stockpiles/
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 10:44
  #15195 (permalink)  
 
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I suppose the one saving grace with the low inventory numbers would be the success rate of the systems coupled with the high quality platforms that NATO members use.
The Ukrainians are trying to incorporate the All Arms Battle into their philosophy from a low starting point and have been very successful where that has been implemented. The Russians have not / their capability to do this was destroyed in the first weeks of the war outside of Kyiv.
We are lucky though as has been pointed out before, Ukraine is doing the heavy lifting and should Russia do something stupid, NATO / or just the US could swot the Russians down in a couple of weeks, while still having the capability to kick the heads in of China, North Korea and Iran.

I have noted that the share price of companies like BAE systems and Northrop Grumman have stagnated for the last 12 months, so the orders aren't coming in in great enough quantities for the market to get excited about. Its going to be a long journey.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 10:47
  #15196 (permalink)  
 
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Executed Ukrainian prisoner identified.

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Old 7th Mar 2023, 11:20
  #15197 (permalink)  
 
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More on Wokka's post

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64872623

Ukraine has vowed to find the Russian soldiers who apparently killed an unarmed Ukrainian prisoner of war, after graphic footage emerged online.

"We will find the murderers," President Volodymyr Zelensky said late on Monday.

In the video, the Ukrainian soldier is seen smoking a cigarette in a trench. He says "glory to Ukraine" before being shot with automatic weapons.

He was named on Tuesday by the Ukrainian military as Tymofiy Shadura, who had been missing since 3 February.

The 30th Separate Mechanised Brigade said he was last seen near the eastern city of Bakhmut - the scene of fierce fighting in recent months.

"Currently, the body of our serviceman is in the temporarily occupied territory," the statement said, citing preliminary information. It added the identification could be completed after the body was returned.

Before the soldier was named, Mr Shadura's sister told the BBC: "My brother would certainly be capable of standing up to the Russians like that.

"He never hid the truth in his life and certainly wouldn't do so in front of the enemy."

In the footage, one of the shooters - believed to be a Russian soldier - is heard saying "die" and using an expletive after the prisoner of war (POW) is shot dead.

The alleged killer or killers - who are not seen in the clip - have not been identified.

The BBC has not verified where and when the footage was made. It first emerged on social media on Monday.

Kyiv and its Western allies have accused Russian troops of committing mass war crimes since President Vladimir Putin launched a full scale-invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Russia denies the allegations.
In his video address, President Zelensky said "the occupiers" killed "a warrior who bravely said to their faces: 'Glory to Ukraine!'"

"I want us all to respond to his words together, in unity: 'Glory to the Hero! Glory to the Heroes! Glory to Ukraine!'"

Mr Zelensky was referring to a battle cry in Ukraine's military that has become popular among millions of Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that the footage was "another proof this war is genocidal", calling for an "immediate investigation" by the International Criminal Court.

Ukraine's human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets accused Russian troops of committing war crimes by violating the Geneva Conventions regarding the treatment of POWs.

And Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said a criminal investigation had already been opened.

Ukraine has previously accused Russian troops of torturing, raping and killing Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Last July, a video emerged that showed a captured Ukrainian soldier being castrated in the Russian-occupied Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian soldier filmed carrying out the attack in the town of Severodonetsk was identified as a member of a unit belonging to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

In November, Moscow accused Ukrainian forces of executing a group of Russian prisoners.

It followed a video from the front line in eastern Ukraine showing the apparent surrender of a number of soldiers, in an incident that ended in their deaths.

A Ukrainian official said the surrender was "staged" by Russian troops in an attempt to attack their captors.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 12:23
  #15198 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by vascodegama
MURDER not execution.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
BEWARE UKRAINIAN SOLDIER EXECUTED:

He is seen smoking a cigarette after being captured and says Glory to Ukraine to his captures who then execute him with automatic fire, link here, put not posting so it comes up on the page automatically. Again, choice is yours to watch it or not.
The response time between his last words and the murder, he was being summarily executed as a prisoner, a blatant war crime by an unspeakable terrorist group. Putin has perverted Russia to the extent that the best that they can be are war criminals, the worst, they are a perverse stain on the reputation of their whole nation. He is murdered by two different war criminals, using automatic weapons. How proud Russians should be of what their spawn do to defenders of the Russian criminal invasion of Ukraine.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 12:51
  #15199 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by uxb99
On the news today "NATO weapons stocks at dangerous levels. Could take 10 years to restock".
Can someone explain why 10 years and why we can't just make more now?
We don't have the capacity to.

Its all been gradually got rid off over the past 4 decades.....factories gone and sites sold off for housing and other stuff. ROF doesn't exist, all privatised. Production lines closed down....likely tooling destroyed as Govt won't pay to store it and maintain it (just in case)

There is a limit to what you can make with the facilities you have left. Only way to increase beyond that is to build more facilities to increase production capacity, just like they did in WW2.

Except it will now take a lot longer than what was achieved back then.

The stupidity of applying just-in-time policies to defence requirements.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 13:00
  #15200 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
We don't have the capacity to.

Its all been gradually got rid off over the past 4 decades.....factories gone and sites sold off for housing and other stuff. ROF doesn't exist, all privatised. Production lines closed down....likely tooling destroyed as Govt won't pay to store it and maintain it (just in case)

There is a limit to what you can make with the facilities you have left. Only way to increase beyond that is to build more facilities to increase production capacity, just like they did in WW2.

Except it will now take a lot longer than what was achieved back then.

The stupidity of applying just-in-time policies to defence requirements.
Other than tight-ar%ed Treasury, might the current plight be received defence wisdom, in that "we either fight little policing campaigns, or we have a major adversary so will be talking tactical nukes after about three days"?
Neither scenario needs big stocks.
Q for Ben Wallace: what are you doing about it NOW, TODAY, BEFORE COFFEE BREAK?
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