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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 4th Mar 2023, 20:27
  #15141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by henra
Ideally where it catches fire. That's terminal.
Easy.
The aircraft will still be useful even without a sat-link and just damaging an engine is a silly, very temporary plan. The airframe itself needs to be critically damaged.
Modify a quad with an upward firing shaped charge and fly it beneath the wing of a Mainstay. Local knowlege of where exactly the tanks lie will ensure the job's a good'un. You only need a minute or two's decent fire to finish the airframe for good.
That or downward firing phosphorous into the fuselage which would have a similar effect.
Even assuming that these drone videos are actually Ukrainian and not Russian as I highly suspect. The whole thing seems far to cosy and pat to me and with no result (ie a burning Mainstay) which is Ukraine's usual signature. Why go to all the risks of broadcasting this as a recce and not finishing the job - rather than alerting the Orcs?
Sorry, I just don't buy it.
No, this is all just just a false-flag exercise I reckon.
But nonetheless a technique to consdider.

Last edited by meleagertoo; 4th Mar 2023 at 20:46.
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Old 4th Mar 2023, 20:29
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Sputnik Covid treatment designer joins Russias dwindling hierarchy



​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/16...C9gaqxjqYtAAAA

Autoerotic Aphysiation gone wrong. Killed by a rent boy allegedly
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Old 4th Mar 2023, 20:44
  #15143 (permalink)  
 
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A warning to all Moldovans.

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Old 4th Mar 2023, 20:49
  #15144 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by melmothtw
As a Celt, I feel it is my duty to inform Russia that the UK is NOT Anglo-Saxon!
Sorry. You're absolutely right. Never trust anything a Russian says!!
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Old 4th Mar 2023, 20:53
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Modern Russia BYO airdefence

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Old 4th Mar 2023, 21:04
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Article from the NY tImes about a Ukrainian Helicopter Brigade:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/04/w...smid=url-share
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Old 4th Mar 2023, 21:45
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
Your knowlege of history and awareness of military planning matters seem strangely weak if that's how you view market garden...
LOL...
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Old 4th Mar 2023, 21:49
  #15148 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by rattman
hair defence for the masses, Vidal Sasoon, eat your heart out.



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Old 4th Mar 2023, 22:06
  #15149 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
That sounds like a neocon dream, get big government out of the air defense business and let the free market take over.
No wonder the right wingers are in love with Russia.

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Old 4th Mar 2023, 22:27
  #15150 (permalink)  
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lots of tactical missiles left - the problem Fo them being they can’t reach behind the FLOT…



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Old 4th Mar 2023, 23:23
  #15151 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
lots of tactical missiles left - the problem Fo them being they can’t reach behind the FLOT…
You gotta love these pie-in-the-sky unsupported 'feel-good' propaganda posts that are indistinguishable from Russina Vranyo - if indeed they are not actually that.
How could anyone - even top level military intelligence possibly know this info- and they'd be the last to blab it?


Last edited by meleagertoo; 5th Mar 2023 at 12:23.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 00:47
  #15152 (permalink)  
 
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SU 34 downed - not clear by whom.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland...187429620.html

Shot down over the Donbas near Yenakieve. Ukraine claims kill, other "experts" think Russian own-goal and Russia is keeping quiet. Ukraine says one pilot killed and one seriously injured.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 01:47
  #15153 (permalink)  
 
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Reports indicate that UKR personnel losses are 1/7 of Wagner zek losses in Bakhmut. But the Russian prison population is about 433,000. Further zek recruitment depends on suppression of zek mortality rate serving with Wagner. It helps that zeks have even less access to battlefield losses than the average Russian.

I suspect that Putin will happily sacrifice as many zeks as Wagner can recruit, especially if they ultimately cost UKR 50,000+ troops.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 04:17
  #15154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
Reports indicate that UKR personnel losses are 1/7 of Wagner zek losses in Bakhmut. But the Russian prison population is about 433,000. Further zek recruitment depends on suppression of zek mortality rate serving with Wagner. It helps that zeks have even less access to battlefield losses than the average Russian.

I suspect that Putin will happily sacrifice as many zeks as Wagner can recruit, especially if they ultimately cost UKR 50,000+ troops.
All good and well, but I understood Russia had stopped prisoner recruitment by Wagner, as they wanted to get them (prisoners) into the Russkie forces, not the mercenaries.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 06:33
  #15155 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
Easy.
The aircraft will still be useful even without a sat-link and just damaging an engine is a silly, very temporary plan. The airframe itself needs to be critically damaged.
Modify a quad with an upward firing shaped charge and fly it beneath the wing of a Mainstay. Local knowlege of where exactly the tanks lie will ensure the job's a good'un. You only need a minute or two's decent fire to finish the airframe for good.
That or downward firing phosphorous into the fuselage which would have a similar effect.
Even assuming that these drone videos are actually Ukrainian and not Russian as I highly suspect. The whole thing seems far to cosy and pat to me and with no result (ie a burning Mainstay) which is Ukraine's usual signature. Why go to all the risks of broadcasting this as a recce and not finishing the job - rather than alerting the Orcs?
Sorry, I just don't buy it.
No, this is all just just a false-flag exercise I reckon.
But nonetheless a technique to consdider.
But as they also targeted the radome, it’s primary mission information gathering platform, surely that means it’s usefulness is severely compromised, I thought the advantage of an AWAC is to gather information and then transfer that data in real time to your assets, if the ability to both collect it and downlink it to those that need it are both gone, I cannot see it being useful at all. You really need that data in real-time to be useful.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 07:10
  #15156 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
All good and well, but I understood Russia had stopped prisoner recruitment by Wagner, as they wanted to get them (prisoners) into the Russkie forces, not the mercenaries.
Agreed, although I do wonder at the sense of Bahkmut, yes it has bled parts of the Russian army dry and has racked up hardware losses, but it has also been costly for Ukraine.
Up until then Ukraine had been operating more of a NATO war, relatively fast moving, highly coordinated and controlled thrusts that Russia was lost to contain, along with the ability to hit and run on any advancing armour or mechanised forces.
Bakhmut appears to be the opposite and they are allowing Russia to dictate the playbook using their tactics of a slow grinding forward movement destroying everything in its path.

But at the end of the day, you have to rely on the West and Ukraine knowing what they are doing and that of the Generals in charge.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 07:38
  #15157 (permalink)  
 
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Ermmmm…

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Old 5th Mar 2023, 07:48
  #15158 (permalink)  
 
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Two Ukrainian pilots are in the USA being evaluated on sims including F16

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Old 5th Mar 2023, 08:15
  #15159 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
But as they also targeted the radome, it’s primary mission information gathering platform, surely that means it’s usefulness is severely compromised, I thought the advantage of an AWAC is to gather information and then transfer that data in real time to your assets, if the ability to both collect it and downlink it to those that need it are both gone, I cannot see it being useful at all. You really need that data in real-time to be useful.
Agree in the short term, Nutty, but radomes are easily repaired/replaced and antennae are LRUs, so I would expect to have that back on line in a week or so; particularly as it appears to have been ferried to a main repair base. To disable it in the medium/long term, I'd be targeting primary structure.
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Old 5th Mar 2023, 10:20
  #15160 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by DuncanDoenitz
Agree in the short term, Nutty, but radomes are easily repaired/replaced and antennae are LRUs, so I would expect to have that back on line in a week or so; particularly as it appears to have been ferried to a main repair base. To disable it in the medium/long term, I'd be targeting primary structure.
Wouldn't a drone carrying shaped charge dropped onto a wing above a fuel tank suffice?
A small shaped charge can punch a hole into the wing with ease I would have thought although perhaps detonation on contact rather than at a distance might be problematic. If they could back it up with an incendiary of some sort you might be able to set fire to the whole aircraft.
With a damaged wing no chance to fly it out.

Or just drop a himar onto it?
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