Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/...mkNxUDpXc0JDsA

Ukraine:

​​​​​​​Police chief: Helicopter crash in Brovary kills 16 people, including Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi.

[DaveReidUK]

BBC reporting the helo crashed on a kindergarten, also killing two children.

Very sad news.

[Tartiflette Fan]

US arms supplies

I have been wondering for some time if all the weapons going to Ukraine are being donated f.o.c., sold or what. The following German article says that the US is supplying goods on a Lend-lease programme - the same as to Britain in WW2. It goes on to remind us that the US has, traditionally been strict about repayment, and that GB only finished repaying in 2006. If anybody has any firm information on what basis other countries are supplying arms, do please put up this info.

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/g...183364187.html

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

I have been wondering for some time if all the weapons going to Ukraine are being donated f.o.c., sold or what. The following German article says that the US is supplying goods on a Lend-lease programme - the same as to Britain in WW2. It goes on to remind us that the US has, traditionally been strict about repayment, and that GB only finished repaying in 2006. If anybody has any firm information on what basis other countries are supplying arms, do please put up this info.

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/g...183364187.html

Pretty sure that wrong the lend lease budget has not been tapped into atm, its a different bucket of money

US waived pretty much all of the british lend lease debt, they were only required to repay the actual cash loans they got to keep the govt going and materials that were on the way over and UK chose to accept rather than send back. The majority of the lend lease hardware and supplies were either returned the US or destroyed under US supervision. My great uncle told the story of towing a barge out to sea and pushing equipment into the sea after VP day (this was in australia) mostly ammunition

The actual cash given to ukraine you need to check the wording a lot of it is loans. The aid packages are not coming out of the lend lease budget. The aid packages require a vote while the vote for the lend lease package has been done and the administration can distribute it with out any further votes.

Note not american but thats my understanding from reading various sources on uit

[Less Hair]

Did the Soviet Union repay lend lease material ever?

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Less Hair

Did the Soviet Union repay lend lease material ever?

They paid back like a billion over the years until the remainder (8 billion or so) was writen off in the late 70's

[Pali]

Originally Posted by fdr

Golly!

Have a new safety video for the next Recurrents. Pretty sure the guys were smoking at the top of the hill before throwing aged ordnance down a rocky slope.

Can you enlighten us? If I remember well the mortar ammunition works in a way that first "kick" will arm the fuse and the second impact leads to detonation but is this valid also for some types of howitzer shells? It seems that while sliding shell down that slope it could hit some stone which could arm the fuse and it seems that detonation occurred when the guy threw it into howitzer.

However shortly before detonation somebody shouted – "Grads!" which could also mean that Ukrainian rockets were incoming.

[NutLoose]

The remains of the Ukrainian Super Puma that went down

https://twitter.com/search?q=kherson...d_query&f=live

https://twitter.com/search?q=kherson...d_query&f=live

[zhishengji751]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

The remains of the Ukrainian Super Puma that went down



https://twitter.com/search?q=kherson...d_query&f=live

^ as that link is to a live feed, the post isn't at the top anymore.

Presumably this photo?

[Spunky Monkey]

Originally Posted by Pali

Can you enlighten us? If I remember well the mortar ammunition works in a way that first "kick" will arm the fuse and the second impact leads to detonation but is this valid also for some types of howitzer shells? It seems that while sliding shell down that slope it could hit some stone which could arm the fuse and it seems that detonation occurred when the guy threw it into howitzer.

However shortly before detonation somebody shouted – "Grads!" which could also mean that Ukrainian rockets were incoming.

Watching the video several times, my suspicion is that they were hit with counter-battery fire.
Looking at the amount of empty cases that vehicle had been there for an awful long time and with the resupply going on, it looked like it was planning to be there for some time further.
It would make a juicy target.
I cannot make out any insignia but fingers crossed it was Russian.
(Although I am unsure if it is just an edited black screen with the sound overlaid).

Sliding shells down the slope is acceptable, although the muck would do little for the longevity of the barrel and it hitting a stone is unlikely to do anything, remember the base of the shell is designed to be strong enough to withstand the instantaneous burning of the propellant in the chamber.

[Fortyodd2]

Spunky, not quite true - the purpose of the shell casing is to hold the charge and, when the round is fired, to expand against the walls of the chamber under the pressure created to seal the barrel to ensure everything goes forwards and doesn't blow back. Thus the weapon does not need an obturating ring in the breech block to do the same. Systems like Chieftain/Challenger which have separate projectile and bag charges need an obturator ring to seal the breech.

[NutLoose]

I don't know what happened to the Puma link. it appears to have been pulled, it was a walk around of the wreckage, i think a lot of the stills are from it.

I don't know what to make of this

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/st...65123367976965

Twitter

Ukraine's interior minister Denis Monastyrsky, deputy minister Yevheniy Yenin and secretary of state Yuriy Lubkovychis died in the crash of their Eurocopter EC225 "Super Puma" This happened this morning in Brovary, Eastern Kyiv suburbs.

https://twitter.com/deleoaude/status...67643217756162

Twitter

[uxb99]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I don't know what happened to the Puma link. it appears to have been pulled, it was a walk around of the wreckage, i think a lot of the stills are from it.
I don't know what to make of this

Very similar to the Battersea Helicopter Crash.

[FUMR]

Originally Posted by ORAC

From multiple sources - presumption being a full declaration of war and mobilisation and warnings to other European nations that the6 risk attack if they continue to “interfere”.

Russian telegram channel: Tomorrow the "special military operation" will officially end.

Together with:

#BREAKING Russian president Vladimir Putin has submitted to the Duma a bill on the termination of international treaties of the Council of Europe with respect to the Russian Federation

Nothing has popped up in the press about this (at least the press that I'm reading). So, what were the multiple sources? Any of them "reliable"?

[El Grifo]

Nothing has popped up in the press about this (at least the press that I'm reading). So, what were the multiple sources? Any of them "reliable"?

Wishful Thinking ??

​​​​​​​El Grifo

[Beamr]

As a prelude to the Ramstein meeting on friday, the UK, Baltic and Polish defence ministers with reps from all JEF countries are meeting in Estonia tomorrow. The anticipation is that the JEF plus Poland will announce their intent ro create an armoured brigade for Ukraine by delivering sufficient amount of Challys/Leos, support vehicles and training.

Should be interesting and if true, create pressure on the Germans to free the Leopards on friday.
And these are the countries that really can make it happen,

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Should be interesting and if true, create pressure on the Germans to free the Leopards on friday.
And these are the countries that really can make it happen,

At the WEF in Davos, when asked directly about Leo's for Ukraine, Scholz dodges the question saying " Germany is doing a lot for Ukraine, Marders " et but saying nothing about Leo's. Is he just keeping his mouth shut because Ramstein is the better forum for the announcement ?

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

At the WEF in Davos, when asked directly about Leo's for Ukraine, Scholz dodges the question saying " Germany is doing a lot for Ukraine, Marders " et but saying nothing about Leo's. Is he just keeping his mouth shut because Ramstein is the better forum for the announcement ?

Very much possible. And IMHO very likely.

[ORAC]

Nothing has popped up in the press about this (at least the press that I'm reading). So, what were the multiple sources? Any of them "reliable"?

Multiple reliable sources all reporting Russian Telegram channels - if there were false rumours spreading it was on the Russian upstream channels.

[ORAC]

BREAKING: The US is expected to announce one of its largest military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days, according to two US officials - CNN

No further details on what weaponry will be included.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/18/polit...nks/index.html

USA moving pre-positioned war stock weapons including ammunition from Israel to Ukraine. Of 300K 155mm shells over 150K have already been delivered.

Israel concerned over effect on Israeli-Russian relations.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/u...l-weapons.html