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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 12th Jan 2023, 06:53
  #13381 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MPN11
Ah, but we have an historic timeline of discussion here. And can possibly reveal how wrong many pundits were?
I was unaware that merely renaming a thread changed history or changed what contributors wrote….
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 08:07
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
IIRC, The likes of the Chieftain etc were built for a different type of warfare from the Russian types, Russian tanks were built “light” low, fast and manoeuvrable for a swift attack in numbers, the Chieftain was designed as a defensive tank, lethal, with an excellent gun, with heavy frontal protection, not as manoeuvrable, but having the ability to defend hull down against the onslaught of the Russian armour.
I did a stint as a contractor with a REME workshop. Chap there said the same. Soviet tanks were designed to be as low a profile as they could get, as they envisaged that their main theatre of operation would be the flat plains of Europe. I tried to get into a T64. At 5ft 11" I was too tall. One of the tankys told me that the Soviets selected their tank crews to be short arses. The Chiefy was at least a couple of feet taller than a T64. Saw both side by side at Bovington.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 09:24
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I do wonder about the logic of sending Challengers, fine tanks as they are, they are however fussy re ammo types due to the rifled barrels, it would make more sense to purchase secondhand Leopards from Germany and send those instead, it would give the Ukrainians maximum commonality, streamline the training and also cut down unnecessary problems of maintaining two types and the supply chain of spares.
Nutty, that changes nothing as Scholz would have to give his say-so for their re-export to Ukraine and presently he is not doing that. Both Finland and Poland have said that they will send Leos as soon as the German veto is lifted. I see the British offer as being at least partially designed to shame/motivate Scholz to change his stance.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 09:34
  #13384 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Nutty, that changes nothing as Scholz would have to give his say-so for their re-export to Ukraine and presently he is not doing that. Both Finland and Poland have said that they will send Leos as soon as the German veto is lifted. I see the British offer as being at least partially designed to shame/motivate Scholz to change his stance.
On BBC news yesterday, they said Poland was sending Leopards
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 10:44
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Pity we can’t at least modify the thread slightly to “Is Ukraine about to win a war”!
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 11:30
  #13386 (permalink)  
 
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Why?, the thread runs from minus day one up until now, so the title fits the narrative... and of course if one looks at it from the Russian perspective, it is not a war yet! therefore the thread title is indeed 50% correct.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 11:46
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Ermmmm...brave, very brave



Later footage of those three killed in the dugout shown earlier and where it allegedly was.


T72 beuing overhauled / upgraded in the Czech republic, the 90 odd number has increased with some more tanks being sourced from Africa taking it over 100


Also of note, that Aspide missile is a variant of the Sea Sparrow, so the technology is probably available to incorporate it onto the Soviet era platform



Last edited by NutLoose; 12th Jan 2023 at 12:11.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 12:47
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
I did a stint as a contractor with a REME workshop. Chap there said the same. Soviet tanks were designed to be as low a profile as they could get, as they envisaged that their main theatre of operation would be the flat plains of Europe. I tried to get into a T64. At 5ft 11" I was too tall. One of the tankys told me that the Soviets selected their tank crews to be short arses. The Chiefy was at least a couple of feet taller than a T64. Saw both side by side at Bovington.
Agrajag
Yes you are quite correct about the compactness of Soviet tanks and indeed their 3 man crews as against Western designs. It was quite worrying when you looked at the Fulda gap in the 1970,s and realised how many you would have to knock out from the pre prepared scrapes for hull down shooting.

Also I should say at 6ft 2in I found British Army Scorpion / Fox a tight squeeze. However as I do not ride horses I was RTR / Panzer, so did not have to work in them . They were more for your horse types it seemed at the time as I recall, you know the Cavalry !
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Last edited by Mr Mac; 12th Jan 2023 at 13:44.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 12:52
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Originally Posted by KiloB
Pity we can’t at least modify the thread slightly to “Is Ukraine about to win a war”!
The way things are going around the Soledar and Bakhmut area at present I'm not so sure. My feeling is that recently the Ukrainians are taking a lot more casualties than previously.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 13:07
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I agree, and it isn't helped by apparently getting bogged down in a Russian type of warfare, where the Ukrainians advantages of Nato warfare are hindered.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 13:25
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac
Agrajag
Yes you are quite correct about the compactness of Soviet tanks and indeed their 3 man crews as against Western designs. It was quite worrying when you looked at the Fulda gap in the 1970,s and realised how many you would have to knock out from the pre prepared scrapes for hull down shooting.
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Presumably though there would also have been a lot of pre-positioned artillery as well as squadrons of A10's which were more or less invented specifically for the Fulda Gap scenario ?
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 13:45
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Presumably though there would also have been a lot of pre-positioned artillery as well as squadrons of A10's which were more or less invented specifically for the Fulda Gap scenario ?
And Jags ready to make them glow in the dark... cough cough..
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 13:54
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Presumably though there would also have been a lot of pre-positioned artillery as well as squadrons of A10's which were more or less invented specifically for the Fulda Gap scenario ?
Tartiflette Fan
You can not pre position too early as even with the tech back then you would be heavily shelled. A lot of scrapes for tanks were dug out and left to get overgrown as I re call. As for air power we did not seem to be that coordinated. I recall asking about this on my RCB and was told there was a 1 week course for tank officers with the RAF on this. I was worried given the German experience in Normandy when Allied tactical airpower negated arguably better tanks.
As for the A10 that was just arriving as I departed, it was helicopters and anti tank rockets given the experience of the Israeli forces earlier in the 1970,s that as I remember worried us at the time. All a very longtime ago, and only one of my fellow officers is still serving I believe, though have not checked for a while. Just checked all retired now, he was artillery and got to Major.

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Old 12th Jan 2023, 16:10
  #13394 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Presumably though there would also have been a lot of pre-positioned artillery as well as squadrons of A10's which were more or less invented specifically for the Fulda Gap scenario ?
We also had 3 squadrons (later, 2) of Harriers working out of dispersed field sites within minutes flying time of the Gap. We reckoned on 30%/day attrition but would have left a lot of flaming hulks on the ground. With our secure comms, we could actually talk to the BALO from the cockpit if required - and no, it couldn’t be DFd. The tasking and reporting system was well practised and secure - and CBUs or level rockets would have caused a shed-load of 200/300s during a frontal armour attack, or indeed, river crossing.

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Old 12th Jan 2023, 16:25
  #13395 (permalink)  
 
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On the Naval News website.
Sudden Surge In Russian Navy Ships And Submarines In Black Sea

Snippet:-

Ukrainian forces will be monitoring a sudden movement of Russian warships and submarines out of their base of Novorossiysk. The naval base, near the Kerch Bridge, is further from Ukrainian controlled coast than the famous base at Sevastopol. Yet the unusual movement may be important.

This morning Russian Navy ships and submarines left their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and may indicate ongoing operations.

Sources seen by Naval News confirm the exodus. The group included the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, Pyotr Morgunov, the largest amphibious ship in the Black Sea.

It also contained all three Project 636.3 Improved-Kilo class submarines which were present at the base. Analysis suggests that other warships were also sailing, leaving only a few warships and support vessels in the port. It is likely the most empty that Novorossiysk has been in many months.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 17:15
  #13396 (permalink)  
 
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Aviation Content :

ho ho ho….



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Old 12th Jan 2023, 17:27
  #13397 (permalink)  
 
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Damned good CAMO, I see three , how about you?

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Old 12th Jan 2023, 18:10
  #13398 (permalink)  
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This is what Casualty evacuation looks like in surface to air missile controlled air space.

Ukrainian CASEVAC on a medical M113 from the icy hell of #Soledar. Under artillery fire.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 18:32
  #13399 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Avman
The way things are going around the Soledar and Bakhmut area at present I'm not so sure. My feeling is that recently the Ukrainians are taking a lot more casualties than previously.
Reporting about the UKR Soledar retreat and 100 UKR POW
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 18:33
  #13400 (permalink)  
 
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Russian MoD says that Russia has already destroyed four US Bradleys.

Considerimg those aren't in Ukraine yet, does this trigger article 5?


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