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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 11th Jan 2023, 17:21
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 17:31
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The video is brutal and it is obvious that confusion is the main reason for these men's deaths.
Perhaps the Russian was wearing Ukrainian insignia or they had approached from a different direction, (as the troops were facing a completely different direction).

After telling them to give up their weapons it would appear that in the confusion one does not relinquish his weapon.
I can understand why the soldier killed them as horrible as it is.

The fact that this video has been released is a big big mistake (perhaps the soldier had been killed and the Ukrainians found the footage), however it will serve to galvanise the Ukrainian resistance and will likely lead to fewer Russians being taken alive.

There is one man to blame for these deaths.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 17:35
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I do wonder about the logic of sending Challengers, fine tanks as they are, they are however fussy re ammo types due to the rifled barrels, it would make more sense to purchase secondhand Leopards from Germany and send those instead, it would give the Ukrainians maximum commonality, streamline the training and also cut down unnecessary problems of maintaining two types and the supply chain of spares.

I do wonder how well both of tanks will cope with this new environment of drone dropped munitions and kamikaze drones… I do hope they prove their worth and live up to the hype. We haven’t really seen much in the way of tank on tank engagements.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 17:38
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In The Guardian:-
Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin replaces general in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine

Snippet:-
Russia’s chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, was appointed as the new commander of the combined forces group for Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine by defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, Reuters reports.

Gerasimov will be replacing Sergei Surovikin, a notorious general who opened fire on pro-democracy protesters in the 1990s. He was appointed Russia’s first overall commander for the war in Ukraine on the same day Vladimir Putin was dealt a humiliating blow after an explosion on the Kerch bridge sank a section of the motorway into the Kerch Strait and caused a major fire on the railway.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 17:38
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
The video is brutal and it is obvious that confusion is the main reason for these men's deaths.
Perhaps the Russian was wearing Ukrainian insignia or they had approached from a different direction, (as the troops were facing a completely different direction).

After telling them to give up their weapons it would appear that in the confusion one does not relinquish his weapon.
I can understand why the soldier killed them as horrible as it is.

The fact that this video has been released is a big big mistake (perhaps the soldier had been killed and the Ukrainians found the footage), however it will serve to galvanise the Ukrainian resistance and will likely lead to fewer Russians being taken alive.

There is one man to blame for these deaths.
Prior to the Russian moving forward he tosses a grenade at their post, that is probably why one is bleeding and one stationary, the three of them are probably concussed and or one dead, plus the Russians come at them from the rear, hence probably why the confusion on their part.

One thing I notice Ukraine goes out of their way to hide the victims faces to save families seeing it, Russia it appears doesn’t.


Last edited by NutLoose; 11th Jan 2023 at 17:50.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 18:16
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I do wonder about the logic of sending Challengers, fine tanks as they are, they are however fussy re ammo types due to the rifled barrels, it would make more sense to purchase secondhand Leopards from Germany and send those instead, it would give the Ukrainians maximum commonality, streamline the training and also cut down unnecessary problems of maintaining two types and the supply chain of spares.

I do wonder how well both of tanks will cope with this new environment of drone dropped munitions and kamikaze drones… I do hope they prove their worth and live up to the hype. We haven’t really seen much in the way of tank on tank engagements.
Nutlose
I have the same doubts. I served on Chieftain and Lep 2 (early version in my youth) and think you would get an easier support apparatus by not throwing a small chunk of British Heavy Armour into this fight as it will be difficult to support logistics wise. I would also say the same about the French Heavy Armour, as there are a lot more Lep 1&2 around than either French or UK MBT. Also maintenance on the German kit I have to say was much easier back then, not sure if that is still the same. Armour is a lot more complex than artillery if you disregard rockets and rockets ie HIMARS.

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Old 11th Jan 2023, 18:19
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Interesting, relevant or just meh?
Sudden Surge In Russian Navy Ships And Submarines In Black Sea - Naval News
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 20:59
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Is there any incidence, to date, of Russia using captured top-down munitions, such as Javelin etc., against Ukrainian armour? If so, how long until the newly donated Western tanks meet these in theatre? I'd suspect they would be a priority for Russian propaganda purposes.

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Old 11th Jan 2023, 21:09
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I do wonder about the logic of sending Challengers,
I think it’s more of a trigger mechanism for Germany, the USA etc.

The word was that they wouldn’t be the first to send heavy armour and would wait till there was a general move. Last we we had Finland & Sweden say they’d send tanks, now we have Poland the UK.

Hopefully now real numbers from others will start flowing.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brit...s-ukraine-war/

Last edited by ORAC; 11th Jan 2023 at 22:46.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 21:39
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Originally Posted by FUMR
Just a passing thought, if I may. After almost 11 months of war, Is it not perhaps time for this thread to be renamed?
Originally Posted by MPN11
Ah, but we have an historic timeline of discussion here. And can possibly reveal how wrong many pundits were?
A fair question. The outdated title has not harmed the utility of this thread, so we'll leave it up.
The thread has not yet become too unwieldy, but it is getting large.
We had an F-35 thread that lasted around 10 years. It got a lot of traffic.
It was called F-35 Cancelled, Then What? which title did not stop the discussion as the program kept on going.
We eventually started the Mark II thread.
If we do need to start a sequel to this thread, we will most likely give it a more up to date title.
We will make sure to provide links back and forth, etc, so that you'll know where to land if this topic is your destination.
Carry on
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---------------
Back on topic:
Originally Posted by ORAC
Last we we had Finland & Sweden say they’d send tanks, now we have Poland the UK. Hopefully now real numbers from others will start flowing.
How much of this do you think is a case of political signaling, given the practical difficulties in supporting a wide variety of MBTs, each deployed in small numbers?
To put it mildly, the logisticians in Ukraine would have their job get much more difficult than it already is.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 22:28
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I suppose the Challys could be parked evenly spaced along the Belorussian Border with Ukraine.
That would probably be enough of a deterrent to them deciding to open a new front.

I agree with Mr Mac's comments about the ease of maintenance of the Leopard and its excellent power pack.
Tanky mates talked about the rifled gun and said how great it is.
I believe it is time to stop sending the Ukes piecemeal equipment and drop them a couple of hundred Bradleys and as many Leopards as we can fit on trains to the Polish Border.
The Russians are still on the back foot and we need to give the power to the Ukrainians feet to stamp squarely on the Russian throat.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 22:28
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Originally Posted by T28B
A fair question. The outdated title has not harmed the utility of this thread, so we'll leave it up.
The thread has not yet become too unwieldy, but it is getting large.
We had an F-35 thread that lasted around 10 years. It got a lot of traffic.
It was called F-35 Cancelled, Then What? which title did not stop the discussion as the program kept on going.
We eventually started the Mark II thread.
If we do need to start a sequel to this thread, we will most likely give it a more up to date title.
We will make sure to provide links back and forth, etc, so that you'll know where to land if this topic is your destination.
Carry on
T28B
---------------
Back on topic:

How much of this do you think is a case of political signaling, given the practical difficulties in supporting a wide variety of MBTs, each deployed in small numbers?
To put it mildly, the logisticians in Ukraine would have their job get much more difficult than it already is.
Is worrying about logistics and maintenance overdone? This question is prompted by wondering what the expected combat life of an MBT is?

When I was hosted by a famous tank regiment in my BFG Met days, the received wisdom was " we are confident we can take 10 of them with one of us [Chieftains?]. Trouble is there are 12 of them". As a civvy, I just accepted the grim fact, Fulda gap and all that.

Will attrtition trump logistics?
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 22:44
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I recall watching a program where a Squadron commander (Abrams as I recall) crested a ridge in Iraq to find a Regiment of Iraqi National Guard T72s in their FUP.
They went to work on the Regiment driving down the road between the Iraqi tanks.
In 5 minutes they had destroyed around 40 tanks for no incoming round on target.

I am a little sceptical that the Russian UAVs will have any effect other than cosmetic on the Challengers or Leopards.
My thought is that the offering of Challenger is to lance the German reluctance (Hence only a Squadron being offered).
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 22:51
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Germans still reluctant….

https://www.politico.eu/article/brit...s-ukraine-war/

Never mind Britain: Germany looks for US to lead the way on battle tanks to Ukraine

BERLIN/LONDON/WASHINGTON — Britain’s moves toward supplying Ukraine with battle tanks are a headache for Olaf Scholz — but it’s still unlikely that the German chancellor will overcome his reluctance to sending heavy German armor without taking his lead from Washington.

Scholz’s spokesperson said Wednesday that plans by London to deliver British-made Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine won’t change the position of the German government, which has so far rejected growing calls for Berlin to hand powerful German Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv…..

Nonetheless, the British plans, which are expected to be officially announced at a meeting of Western defense officials at the Ramstein military base in Germany on January 20, will probably ramp up the pressure on Scholz as the U.K. would be the first country to supply Ukraine’s military with modern Western-made battle tanks.

Downing Street said Wednesday that U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is leading discussions with Western allies on how to send “game-changing” tanks to Ukraine.
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Old 11th Jan 2023, 23:40
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Is worrying about logistics and maintenance overdone?
Well, it's not an either or thing, it's 'one more damned thing" because if you don't keep them running they can't fight. A classic case was the Panther (Mk V Panzer) that was a fine machine that was an absolute bastard to keep running, and whose gears in the transmission tended to wear out prematurely. Tiger also had some chronic issues that reduced the number that could fight.
This question is prompted by wondering what the expected combat life of an MBT is?
A very good question that will only be answered if they get into a fight in this battle/war, yes.
​​​​​​​When I was hosted by a famous tank regiment in my BFG Met days, the received wisdom was " we are confident we can take 10 of them with one of us [Chieftains?]. Trouble is there are 12 of them". As a civvy, I just accepted the grim fact, Fulda gap and all that.
A gnarly old army Col I used to work with was in the Fulda Gap during his initial assignment, M-60's. He told me similar stories.
Will attrition trump logistics?
It's not either or, it's both. As with aircraft (we are all familiar with this) the availability rates (see NH-90, the Tiger) can degrade combat capability by reducing the fighting power of the formation.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 00:01
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IIRC, The likes of the Chieftain etc were built for a different type of warfare from the Russian types, Russian tanks were built “light” low, fast and manoeuvrable for a swift attack in numbers, the Chieftain was designed as a defensive tank, lethal, with an excellent gun, with heavy frontal protection, not as manoeuvrable, but having the ability to defend hull down against the onslaught of the Russian armour.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 00:27
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
Excellent ! Just when the Russians were starting to show a worrying level of bare competence with the retreat from Kherson, for example; Putin replaces the guy responsible with a political hack yes man.
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Old 12th Jan 2023, 01:22
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Ukraine have captured a T90S, that is the export version that was originally due for delivery to India I believe, another type for assessment

It looks like it simply shed a track so was hastily abandoned, hopefully a simple fix.


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Old 12th Jan 2023, 02:29
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Meanwhile Polish Belarusian border, entente cordiale is in full swing..



Eddie Murphy?

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Old 12th Jan 2023, 06:51
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Diesmt sound like more than a few days worth - but presumably it’s the start of a constant stream of deliveries.

Pakistan providing weapons to Ukraine

According to the business edition of India The Economic Times, 159 containers with ammunition for the Ukrainian army will arrive from the Pakistani port city of Karachi to through the port in Gdansk.

The contents include 155-mm artillery shells and charges together with multipurpose fuses.

yep... shipping on M.V. Vesuvius ...hope she doesn't live up to her name...
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