Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[rattman]

So the strike was at 50.474589, 23.923253 5km south (50.429081, 23.918099) is a High voltage line cross the border into Ukraine at 50.41428883173818, 23.998217612161646

[fdr]

Originally Posted by tdracer

I'm thinking it was an accident - not even Putin is dumb enough to directly attack a NATO country. And we already know that a lot of the Russian equipment is not exactly up to snuff. Either a malfunction, or someone experienced 'fat fingers' during targeting.
Given a shooting war is in progress, such mistakes are not unheard of. Remember that NATO accidently bombed the Chinese Embassy during Serbia...
Personally I'm more concerned about Russia continuing to target civilian infrastructure far from the frontlines...

One would think that, however, there is an unsubstantiated rumor that at the same time Moldova got an "accidental" strike as well from Russian munitions. If that is correct, and I rather hope it isn't, then the probability of the Russians, as incompetent as they are, stuffing up targetting twice at the same time to hit countries outside of Ukraine (which is under criminal attack and home invasion by Russia) is pretty low. If there were 2 simultaneous attacks outside, then that would be an expansion by Russia and an invitation for the UN to go and do their damned job, Poland would not sit around waiting at that point.

I hope the report is wrong about Moldova.

There are a lot of options that NATO or other countries can do to respond to Russia's aggression. The reasonable response would be to get the Kremlin's attention by taking out the majority of Russia's military assets in the occupied territories. Those people who love being Russian so much have space to go to in Russia, after all, there are a lot of empty beds in Russia which used to have live people who became hamburger for Vlad.

[arf23]

Longer range missiles

Just give UKR a dozen maximum range HIMARS

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst

I think the only response is a tit for tat escalation. They fire 2, NATO fires 4 back at a military target. With a clear message that it will be escalated each time.

You are wrong. And happily, you are nowhere near being a decision maker

Originally Posted by tdracer

I'm thinking it was an accident - not even Putin is dumb enough to directly attack a NATO country. And we already know that a lot of the Russian equipment is not exactly up to snuff. Either a malfunction, or someone experienced 'fat fingers' during targeting. Given a shooting war is in progress, such mistakes are not unheard of. Remember that NATO accidently bombed the Chinese Embassy during Serbia...Personally I'm more concerned about Russia continuing to target civilian infrastructure far from the frontlines...

Never attribute to malice what is attributable to stupidity or incompetence - isn't a bad rule of thumb.

that is why Poland is consulting with NATO allies rather than there being a hair trigger response, Fly High.

[NutLoose]

Either give them the long range HIMARS or tell Russia NATO will now target and destroy any vessel, aircraft or base found to be launching missiles or rockets in their direction.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

... tell Russia NATO will now target any vessel, aircraft or base found to be launching missiles or rockets in their direction.

Why do you think that isn't already understood and communicated? What a trigger happy bunch of cowboys we see on your side of the pond. Yippy Kai Yay, Mother Forker!

Originally Posted by fdr

I hope the report is wrong about Moldova.

Give it 48 hours, the details should filter out.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Why do you think that isn't already understood and communicated? What a trigger happy bunch of cowboys we see on your side of the pond. Yippy Kai Yay, Mother Forker!
Give it 48 hours, the details should filter out.

Do you not think that a single strike on any base etc that has launched a missile into a nato country is not a proportional response if proved to be the case?

I would say though Article 5 isn’t worth the paper it is written on if you ignore it, Russia should not be targeting anything close to the border if that was indeed the case.

Three U.S. officials told the
@AP
that preliminary assessments indicate the missile that struck Poland had been fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by rattman

Confirmed russia

On November 15, 2022, another massive shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine and its critical infrastructure, conducted by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, took place for many hours. At 15:40 in the village of Przewodów in the Hrubieszów poviat in the Lubelskie Voivodship, a Russian-made missile fell, killing two citizens of the Republic of Poland. In connection with this event, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zbigniew Rau, summoned the ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and demanded immediate detailed explanations.

I think all that's confirmed so far is the country of manufacture of the missile, not who launched it.

[SWBKCB]

Never attribute to malice what is attributable to stupidity or incompetence - isn't a bad rule of thumb.

Joe Biden has cast doubt on the origin of a missile that hit Poland and killed two people late on Tuesday, saying it is "unlikely" to have been fired from Russia.

Ukrainian and Polish authorities said the explosion was caused by a Russian-made missile, but Mr Biden appeared to suggest the missile may not have been fired from Russia.

He said: "There is preliminary information that contests that. I don't want to say that until we completely investigate it, but it is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we'll see."

https://news.sky.com/story/missile-t...-says-12748538

[JanetFlight]

So...if that is the case, would Poland and NATO invoke the article 5 against Ukraine?

[rattman]

Originally Posted by JanetFlight

So...if that is the case, would Poland and NATO invoke the article 5 against Ukraine?

No it has intention in the wording ukraine would not intentionally attack poland I also doubt russia would be stupid enough to intentionally attack poland / NATO/ Hence why there has been no governmental discussion about 5 and it all comes back to 4

[ORAC]

Biden’s statement is strangely worded. Note he said the missile hadn’t been fired from Russia, not by Russia.

Remember a lot of the missiles hitting Ukraine have been ALCM fired by Bear/Backfire over Belarus, Iskander/other/S-300 ground launched from Belarus and a combination of SSM/SLCM fired from the Black Sea.

Not so say it might not be a Ukrainian misfire, but Biden hasn’t really clarified anything.

[Pali]

Ukraine was under attack with 100 incoming missiles. Off course there is a chance that some of defending S-300 rockets may go astray and land in Poland but we should never forget that it is still Russia who is to blame.

If there would be chaotic mass shooting in a school and police would hit some innocent bystander we would still assign responsibility to the attacker.

Therefore I think it would be right time to provide Ukraine with means to hit any launching installation regardless if it is an air base or a frigate at Black Sea. The minimum would be ATACMS to end off Kerch bridge and any bases within Crimea. With collapse of logistics to the peninsula the ability to continue the war would deteriorate.

Establishing no flight zone within right bank of Dnipro would be a step in the right direction too. Lack of action will give Putin a hint about weakness of NATO and this always led to escalation.

[Less Hair]

Did just debris rain down causing damage or did the S-300 hit and explode like being ground targeted on that important power line EU-Ukraine?
Could the "Ukraine-missile-claim" just be NATO's response in order to not lose the initiative and have the summit agenda remotely controlled by Russia?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/stat...OzxMX_z8u1ywEw

​​​​​​​Croatia 🇭🇷 will provide Ukraine 🇺🇦 with 14 Mi-8 helicopters to get US Blackhawk helicopters in return reports a Croatian Newspaper.

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by Pali

Ukraine was under attack with 100 incoming missiles. Off course there is a chance that some of defending S-300 rockets may go astray and land in Poland but we should never forget that it is still Russia who is to blame.

Whatever the source of the missile I too find this rush to absolve Russia of blame distasteful. This only happened because Russia is firing missiles at Ukraine.

[Timmy Tomkins]

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Article 4 allows enhanced security measures to be taken. So now is the time for that aicraft deal to be resurected. US F16s for Polish Migs etc that can now legitimately go to Ukraine, along with any other goodies deemed necessary

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Article 4 allows enhanced security measures to be taken. So now is the time for that aicraft deal to be resurected. US F16s for Polish Migs etc that can now legitimately go to Ukraine, along with any other goodies deemed necessary

Claims the article 4 meeting request has been withdrawn

Twitter

[Brewster Buffalo]

AP News Agency reporting that "Poland are saying the missile was Russian Made and also that "Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one..........The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly." I heard some report that the missile was a surface to air one...and the Ukrainians are probably still using Soviet equipment...

So sounding more likely that this was an unfortunate accident...

[Buster Hyman]

Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo

So sounding more likely that this was an unfortunate accident...

If correct, thank God wiser heads prevailed & it was fully investigated before acting.