Is Ukraine about to have a war?
That's my take on it too, when the Belarusian military are presented with a bunch of conscripts a representation of what remains of the russian armies fighting force, that should give them the confidence to arrest lukashenko and end this madness, at least from the Belarus perspective. I suspect if any shots are fired from Belarus then that's all the excuse Poland will need.
My take is that Putin is once again trying to persuade the Ukes that it'll happen and divert resources away from the east + south.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
JUST IN: Poland advises citizens against travelling to Belarus, urging people to leave the country - Reuters
Skit capturing the vexing task of mapping the non-stop changes of Russia’s annexed claims in Donetsk.
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Belarus saying they are only taking up a defensive posture, nothing more and wish no war with anyone on their borders.
Some mornings you'd just kill for a cup of coffee.
Belarus saying they are only taking up a defensive posture, nothing more and wish no war with anyone on their borders.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...DRubCZyesrAAAA
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...DRubCZyesrAAAA
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Couple of questions.
What is Belarus's interest in all this. What do they hope to gain by supporting Putin?
Is escalation to a conflict with NATO inevitable? It's obvious Putin won't back down and if Ukraine sues for peace still inevitable but delayed?
What is Belarus's interest in all this. What do they hope to gain by supporting Putin?
Is escalation to a conflict with NATO inevitable? It's obvious Putin won't back down and if Ukraine sues for peace still inevitable but delayed?
Without Putins support Lukashenka would've been overthrown years ago. He knows he'll be toast if Putin loses.
Just another cold war era dictator desperately trying to stay in power.
I suspect Lukashenko also is regretting the assistance that he gave Putler in February and March, as Russia tries to be reviled by all countries, and yet strives to become a terrorist State.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
AFU used GMLRS to wipe out an entire Russian convoy…..
Its not just Ukraine that Putin is fighting, he is fighting Belarus troops in Ukraine who hate his actions that much and who are not impressed with Lukashenko, and he is fighting a growing wave of Russians who are taking up smoking due to the morphing of a KGB officer into a politician, then bad neighbor, then criminal and lately a terrorist. Most of us don't have such a splendid career path. Wonder what he was expected to be by his school counselors? "most likely to be a genocidal sociopath?"
Solovyev s guests
Apparently the speaker has no idea what he says... but that is what genocide sounds like.
"our goodwill gestures won't end well"
"the sooner we can de-occupy the areas we need, the sooner their people will come to their senses"
#russiaisaterroristate
"our goodwill gestures won't end well"
"the sooner we can de-occupy the areas we need, the sooner their people will come to their senses"
#russiaisaterroristate
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WARNING: no direct aviation content.
I have been looking at a worst case Ukr scenario [short of MAD] but including some Tactical Nuclear on the battlefield or even cities. Worst result: Russia "wins", dreadful UKr military and civil casualties, collapse of morale. Western aid half-hearted, land and cities and infrastructures trashed, huge numbers Ukr voting with their feet into Poland, Poland doing its superb and gallant best to succour them.
In this scenario Russia's victory is the essence of Pyrrhic. Flag waving occupiers of a deserted, poisoned, scorched land with infrastructure beyond repair in any sensible time frame. Almost no nation silly enough to help, except on usurious terms. Armed forces and military stocks depleted. Nobody wanting Russian military exports except at fire-sale prices. Standard of living plummeting. Huge unrest once the euphoria wears off. West becoming weaned off energy imports, West not welcoming anyone with a Russian passport, almost nowhere to have a nice holiday [assume Crimea trashed].
It gets worse. No rational country would ever believe a word any Russian leadership gave, regardless of Putin's fate.
Russia would be a pariah state for a generation at least. [Actually, will be a pariah in any result].
Surely there must come a time when these clever chess masters, false-flaggers, masters of the universe want to settle on terms acceptable to Ukr?
I didn't do Staff College but I believe my gloomy analysis to be correct. As ever, welcoming constructive criticicism.
I have been looking at a worst case Ukr scenario [short of MAD] but including some Tactical Nuclear on the battlefield or even cities. Worst result: Russia "wins", dreadful UKr military and civil casualties, collapse of morale. Western aid half-hearted, land and cities and infrastructures trashed, huge numbers Ukr voting with their feet into Poland, Poland doing its superb and gallant best to succour them.
In this scenario Russia's victory is the essence of Pyrrhic. Flag waving occupiers of a deserted, poisoned, scorched land with infrastructure beyond repair in any sensible time frame. Almost no nation silly enough to help, except on usurious terms. Armed forces and military stocks depleted. Nobody wanting Russian military exports except at fire-sale prices. Standard of living plummeting. Huge unrest once the euphoria wears off. West becoming weaned off energy imports, West not welcoming anyone with a Russian passport, almost nowhere to have a nice holiday [assume Crimea trashed].
It gets worse. No rational country would ever believe a word any Russian leadership gave, regardless of Putin's fate.
Russia would be a pariah state for a generation at least. [Actually, will be a pariah in any result].
Surely there must come a time when these clever chess masters, false-flaggers, masters of the universe want to settle on terms acceptable to Ukr?
I didn't do Staff College but I believe my gloomy analysis to be correct. As ever, welcoming constructive criticicism.
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Well, 
Is it ironic that Beeb2 is running a 3 parter on the Downfall of Hitler now.
Russians complain that it is impossible to call the number given to the russiansoldiers to voluntarily surrender, because the line is always busy. They are asking to create more hotlines for surrender)
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Lukashenka is frightened by Poland.
He is worried about the modernisation and rearmament, I wonder if that is why he is forming the latest troop movements.
He is worried about the modernisation and rearmament, I wonder if that is why he is forming the latest troop movements.