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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 4th Sep 2022, 10:51
  #8761 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by fdr
Didn't work well for Von Paulus in '42.
I seem to recall they Army needed 800 tons a day. Goering struggled to supply 200. An army needs a hell of a lot of stuff to keep going.
An interesting snippet. During the Normandy campaign due to fuel supply issues RAF bomber command was ordered to deliver by air 400'000 gallons of fuel which was about the same amount the bombers used to deliver the fuel.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 11:20
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The Russian ferry staging area next to the Antonivskyi Bridge has been hit this morning by Ukrainian long range fires.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 11:23
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The Russian railway system is struggling because of the sanctions, they can't get the bearings to maintain the rolling stock.

In this video they reckon the knock on effect to other industries could result in millions of job losses.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 11:33
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The Russian ferry staging area next to the Antonivskyi Bridge has been hit this morning by Ukrainian long range fires.
Girkin, in his Telegram account, claims 4 himars attacks per day on the pontoon bridges. No interpruption to supplies, of course.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 12:32
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Residents of the occupied city of Melitopol, Ukraine who accepted Russian passports are now receiving orders to sign up for military service.

One online user called it “cash back” for RF citizenship….



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Old 4th Sep 2022, 14:00
  #8766 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The Russian railway system is struggling because of the sanctions, they can't get the bearings to maintain the rolling stock.

In this video they reckon the knock on effect to other industries could result in millions of job losses.
Interesting...

Russia's former might had an effective bridgehead to FEBA of.... 90 miles... (statute). What armament in the Ukranian stocks currently can push back the rail lines more than 90 miles from the front line? Every mile further back increases the logistics nightmare that exists. The Ruzzian forces have lost a considerable amount of their pointy end logistics train, many Z'd trucks got poked full of holes. That would suggest that the reach of the logistic "train" of trucks from the "train" of Trains, will have a functional distance limit that reduces with the reduced vehicle supply. If they have lost half of their trucks, they will be able to do the same distances with half the load, or half the distance with the same load... etc...

There are a lot of messed up RuSSian trucks out there. Supposedly 3276 Trucks gone ot truck valhalla from 24FEB22 to 04SEP22. Around 24FEB22 the whole Russian army truck force was apparently anywhere between 5000 and 40,000+ depending on what is being countered. Figures on the Specialist Logistics Groups indicate at least 4000+ heavy trucks, it is possible that as high as 50% of that group are done and dusted now. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Port...au-Bartles.pdf

While searching for a reference on truck losses, came across the source of the high level RuSSian loss assessment, previously commented on (It wasn't British MOD, it was Ukraine MOD . It has some interesting figures on it where it compares the losses to the invasion force levels. Are they valid? I don't think the fatalities are out by much, I would think that the injury levels are lower as a relative percentage due to the lethality of the weapons being used. This estimate appears to be based on taking the Ukr MOD estimates for fatalities, and adding 3 x fatalities for injuries estimates. The difference in figures comes out when considering the ACV troop losses. In the beginning of the conflict, there was a high proportion of ACV losses, and it appears to have been assumed that the vehicles had full complements of dismount troops employed, and that would have led to an initial overestimation of the casualty numbers. The figures for the Russian main forces may be running around 10,000 lower than reported, however, the reported figures do not seem to indicate correctly DNR & LNR losses, which have been very high. Cynically, it may be that the Russians are hardly likely to care about those losses, as indicated by the latest round of forced drafting of those that happened to be "given" Russian passports... membership has it's rewards as they say. Overall, combined Russian, DNR/LNR/Wagner/Chechin losses would likely be higher than the official number for "Russian" losses, and suspect that the Fatality:Casualty ratio is going to be lower than 1:3.

REPORT of RUSSIAN LOSSES


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Old 4th Sep 2022, 14:10
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Aviation content, bloody lane jumper, bloody awesome, I love the way the oncoming car pulls over to let him pass.


Last edited by NutLoose; 4th Sep 2022 at 14:22.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 14:21
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Interesting read on Russian losses by Ukraine

https://www.minusrus.com/en

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Old 4th Sep 2022, 15:07
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ACV Casualty Multiple

I suspect that ACV occupancy was high in the initial invasion, but that RF grunts subsequently acquired a reluctance to climb aboard, along with an alacrity to dismount pronto at the first sign of a missile strike or loitering Drone.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 16:46
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As it is becoming clearer that Russian forces in Ukraine are extremely vulnerable in a number of key locations, there are signs that the Kremlin may be looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5546793 (in Russian, but google translatable)

This may be a very dangerous moment, as energy costs bite and 'reasonable' voices will talk about necessary compromise. Let's hope that Western resolve holds and the lessons of 2014 are kept in mind... Postponing the rest of this war will not lead to less suffering...
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 17:15
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Found on Tom Cooper's page.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x
See video on HARM/Mig29

Last edited by skridlov; 4th Sep 2022 at 17:16. Reason: invisible link.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 18:39
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Well, from what we've seen so far from Russia, what they say and what they do are completely opposite. A tactic that has worked well...up until this current invasion - when their real plans were obtained by the West and published to the world in advance.

if they say they're considering negotiations...worth assuming the exact opposite and keeping the pressure on.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 18:47
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From Recc's upper post - Ya gotta laugh when Russian Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov says;

"According to Dmitry Peskov, Russia artificially "does not antagonize itself with someone." "Still, our country is rather a supporter of such international harmony, based on mutual respect, mutual benefit and readiness to take into account each other's concerns," the press secretary of the Russian president said"

.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 18:53
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Russian propagandists are yet again exceeding their competence limits by claiming they've seen German Leopards in Kharkiv area, as well as Finnish ItPsv marksman AA tanks (which btw were dismantled over ten years ago...)
The russkies must be doing very badly there as the lies are getting bigger by the day.

twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1566114957590134784

On the route Bereznegovatoe village - Bereznegovatoe station - Ternovka - Blagodatovka - Andreevka, the transfer of equipment and personnel to the southern coast continues. German "Leopards" were seen, as well as something similar to the Finnish ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman)
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 18:58
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Originally Posted by Recc
As it is becoming clearer that Russian forces in Ukraine are extremely vulnerable in a number of key locations, there are signs that the Kremlin may be looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5546793 (in Russian, but google translatable)

This may be a very dangerous moment, as energy costs bite and 'reasonable' voices will talk about necessary compromise. Let's hope that Western resolve holds and the lessons of 2014 are kept in mind... Postponing the rest of this war will not lead to less suffering...

I doubt given the conduct of Russian forces in Ukraine and the casualties they have inflicted, particularly on civilians, that Zalenski is in any mood to compromise, especially as it looks like he could be winning or at least kicking the Russians out of Crimea*. And why should he?

* How will the Russians hold Crimea when they can't resupply their forces with food, ammunition and equipment?

I think they are fued.



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Old 4th Sep 2022, 18:59
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Originally Posted by Recc
As it is becoming clearer that Russian forces in Ukraine are extremely vulnerable in a number of key locations, there are signs that the Kremlin may be looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5546793 (in Russian, but google translatable)

This may be a very dangerous moment, as energy costs bite and 'reasonable' voices will talk about necessary compromise. Let's hope that Western resolve holds and the lessons of 2014 are kept in mind... Postponing the rest of this war will not lead to less suffering...
When the Lion stops biting down on your head is probably not the time to loosen your grip on it's testicles.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 19:04
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To keep it simple, my vote is for no appeasement and the complete destruction of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory (unless they fully retreat from said territory)!

Then Ukraine should be allowed to become a member of NATO and it should be made very clear to Putin that no further invasions (sorry, Special Military Operations) would be tolerated whatsoever.

But do our politicians have the ba**s for that?
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 19:22
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Originally Posted by WB627
I doubt given the conduct of Russian forces in Ukraine and the casualties they have inflicted, particularly on civilians, that Zalenski is in any mood to compromise, especially as it looks like he could be winning or at least kicking the Russians out of Crimea*. And why should he?
Agreed; I think that the Ukrainians understand the situation very well indeed. The difficulty will come when the Russians are serious about negotiations and make this known. Moderate voices in the west will start to question the policy of military support to Ukraine when Russia wants a ceasefire and only Ukraine wants to keep fighting. They will argue that any peace is better than war, and that we should force Ukraine to negotiate (by threatening to withdraw support) so that a compromise can be reached. This will be an attractive argument to many, particularly those with only a passing knowledge of the history of the war. It will be a major political challenge, and I hope that the politicians are up to it.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 19:24
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There are signs of weakening of the already weak resolve of Italy, but they were doing 2/3 of 4/5 of buggerall anyway.

The only voices that matter regarding "peace" are Ukraine and Russia. I believe that Ukraine is in the mental posture of Great Britain in 1940 ....... they have suffered too much to forgive, have too much to lose and will willingly suffer blood, toil and sweat.

The whole Western democratic culture is being tested. Pray that it passes the test.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 20:15
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Interesting analysis of Ukraine's HARM shooting MiG-29s by a former F-4G Wild Weasel EWO

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