Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

Subtle hint to Russia?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/amer...rine-scotland/

[Beamr]

The Russian people are being prepared for war. Here's an article from Pravda:
"Moment of truth: Russia finally threatens NATO with a military response"
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...5-russia_nato/

Also, Russia is ready to deploy nukes to Belarus.
"Russia confirms readiness to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus"
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...larus_nuclear/

The further this goes, the less likely Putin will be able to back off.

[ORAC]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/...es-drop-a75881

Russia Cuts Gas Supplies to Europe as Temperatures Drop

Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom slashed its gas supplies to Europe over the weekend, sending prices surging as the continent prepares for a week of sub-zero temperatures.

Shipments through the Yamal pipeline — which runs through Belarus and Poland to Germany — were at their lowest for at least a month over the weekend, Interfax reported, citing market data. Daily shipments fell from 27 million cubic meters (mcm) Friday to 5.2 mcm and 4.7 mcm on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Gazprom also booked only minimal additional capacity on the transit route Monday — 3.8 mcm — worrying markets as gas prices rose across Europe once more…..

The Yamal pipeline operates at a full capacity of 89 mcm per day, meaning flows were operating at only 4% of capacity Monday…..

[ORAC]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-def...ussia-pay.html

What would happen to Russia should it decide to launch a full-scale war with Ukraine?

….According to Valerii Kravchenko, an expert with the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow sees that the "window of opportunity" is closing – Ukraine may soon “break away” completely. This forces Russia to act hastily.

Kravchenko suggests that Putin's plan may be to create an "alternative Ukraine" – a proxy that would enter into an alliance with Belarus and Russia.

Valentyn Badrak, chief of the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament, believes Putin's only chance of not losing Ukraine is to launch a blitzkrieg immediately.

"Putin is well aware that a strong but non-fatal blow would mean death for the one who inflicted it. Therefore, it is either blitzkrieg or total failure. Russia is incapable of a protracted war at the moment,” said Badrak.

"Let's allow everyone who doesn't love us to just go"

Thus, the hypothetical price that Russia could pay for launching a war against Ukraine in the event of a blitzkrieg failure is the complete collapse of Russia itself.

But Russia, as it turned out, could face collapse even without this war with Ukraine.

On December 9, during a meeting of the Human Rights Council, Putin unexpectedly acknowledged the fragility of the Russian Federation. He reacted really nervously to the address by film director Alexander Sokurov.

The latter said, in particular, that in the national republics people “increasingly dislike” ethnic Russians and “want to say goodbye” to them. And how young people in the North Caucasus claim that in the event of a war between Russia and NATO, they will not fight for Russia. He also spoke of the approach of the "Islamic Revolution" in Russia.

"Let's allow everyone who does’t want to live in one country with us to just go," said the director.

In response, Putin said that "NATO wants to turn us into Muscovy", asked "not to call trouble," suddenly adding that Russia has "two thousand territorial claims," so it may face a "repeat of Yugoslavia."…..

[Less Hair]

Strange to look to the West this way.
Wouldn't China be Russia's strategic rival?

[ORAC]

That’s an existential choice which Russia has been debating for hundreds of years….

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...in20030328.pdf

https://www.degruyter.com/document/d...420722-013/pdf

[Less Hair]

They are barking up the wrong tree.

[dead_pan]

Interesting piece about Russia's choices, ORAC. I too was thinking that Ukraine could soon become too powerful militarily for Russia to take on, resulting in them permanently going their own way. It may be already.

If Russia suffer too heavily it could spell all kinds of trouble for them domestically.

[henra]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Interesting piece about Russia's choices, ORAC. I too was thinking that Ukraine could soon become too powerful militarily for Russia to take on, resulting in them permanently going their own way. It may be already.

That's what I was thinking. Ukraine has 250.000 soldiers and a sizeable Land Army with many Tanks and heavy weapons. With 100.000 soldiers attacking, this might not be a walk in the park for the attackers. This is not Georgia. Stingers and Javelins can make life ugly for an invader trying to walk in with tanks and helicopters. A relevant quantity of S-300s will cause attrition on Air assets. Even should Russia win the question is how much of its Army and Airforce will be left afterwards? The following sanction will mean that a re-arming will be close to impossible. An expensive win over Ukraine could be the end of Russia.
And afterwards Russia will have to subsidise a wrecked Ukraine with one third of its own population and will have to permanently keep in check 45 Million people. Considering that they are still today swallowing the costs of the crimea annexion, I have no idea how they fancy to swallow the big chunk.
IMHO the only permanent success they can achieve militarily is MAD and complete extinction of human life on Earth.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by henra

That's what I was thinking. Ukraine has 250.000 soldiers and a sizeable Land Army with many Tanks and heavy weapons.

Add to the mix a large number of Ukrainian citizens who would take up arms in defence of their nation, plus a sizeable number of Poles who would cross the border to join the fight.

[Less Hair]

And then NATO's eastern flank will get massively fortified as the West will not let the Baltic states be next.
I am having a hard time myself finding out what the perceived gain for them might lay in?

[unmanned_droid]

Trying to take all of the Ukraine with conventional forces seems like an uncharacteristically large miscalculation on Putin's part. They really would be an army of occupation then. I still see him going for an incursion to get a land route to Crimea and calling it quits.

Would it not be more the current style of warfare to try and enact state change in a manner favourable to Putin through covert action?

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by unmanned_droid

I still see him going for an incursion to get a land route to Crimea and calling it quits.

This could well be his plan, then 're-freeze' the conflict for a few years to let the West's ire fade and its attention to shift elsewhere, as it did after Crimea. Then rinse and repeat, assuming the rump of Ukraine doesn't get too strong in the meantime?

I reckon Putin dreams about 'liberating' Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltics, then striking though Romania to hook up with Serbia, one happy Slavic orthodox union (or more likely not).

[Just a spotter]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

This could well be his plan, then 're-freeze' the conflict for a few years to let the West's ire fade and its attention to shift elsewhere, as it did after Crimea. Then rinse and repeat, assuming the rump of Ukraine doesn't get too strong in the meantime.

Ah yes, Salami Tactics .. as outlined in the early 1980s!

You Tube

JAS

[Beamr]

Is Russia building up an excuse for invasion? This has the distinct odour of the shelling of Mainila in 1939.

Shoigu: Private US Military Firms Preparing Provocations With Chemical Components in Eastern Ukraine

https://sputniknews.com/20211221/sho...091693740.html

[henra]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

I reckon Putin dreams about 'liberating' Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltics, then striking though Romania to hook up with Serbia, one happy Slavic orthodox union (or more likely not).

Guys, get real!
The Russian Army is a significant force. But it is a gazillion Years away from being able to do this. It is about 10 -15% of the former Warsaw Pact strength regarding conventional Wepaons and troops. Vlad' may dream of this. Hell; I dream of being a Billionaire and needing to work any more and having a private Island some nice place, but seriously!

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by henra

Guys, get real!
The Russian Army is a significant force. But it is a gazillion Years away from being able to do this. It is about 10 -15% of the former Warsaw Pact strength regarding conventional Wepaons and troops. Vlad' may dream of this. Hell; I dream of being a Billionaire and needing to work any more and having a private Island some nice place, but seriously!

Is that the one with the hidden ICBM under the retracting swimming pool?

[ORAC]

Traceski Island?

[tartare]

Originally Posted by ORAC

That’s an existential choice which Russia has been debating for hundreds of years….

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...in20030328.pdf

https://www.degruyter.com/document/d...420722-013/pdf

Indeed.
Easy to forget how geographically vast and ethnically diverse it is - even today.
This debate was already an intractable problem when the USSR was created.
It barely was a union of 15 independently minded and very separate republics.

[Asturias56]

But under the beneficent guidance of the former Commissioner for Minorities - one J V Stalin - all learned to sing with one voice.................

Tho oddly he was happy to let the Finns go................... even after WW2