Is Ukraine about to have a war?
The UN can't sponsor peacekeepers - because those operations have to be authorised by the UNSC, which is compromised by the presence of the Russ and the Chinese.
Spot on wrt the current Russian leadership. One man is The Problem. The Problem cannot lose face because as soon as he does, he's toast internally. That's why this is such a dangerous situation - The Problem is clearly not playing with a full deck and is unconstrained by conventional political governance methods.
The only way this gets solved is via the apparently endemic Russian problem of ill-health caused by faulty windows.
Spot on wrt the current Russian leadership. One man is The Problem. The Problem cannot lose face because as soon as he does, he's toast internally. That's why this is such a dangerous situation - The Problem is clearly not playing with a full deck and is unconstrained by conventional political governance methods.
The only way this gets solved is via the apparently endemic Russian problem of ill-health caused by faulty windows.
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Or the removal of.
They certainly could fire a nuke or two but they would be unable to start some major land war with NATO at this moment. Plus they would get nuked themselves and they know it. So what would a nuke be good for? Wouldn't it just trigger internal uprisings or similar? We need a face saving retreat. Mission accomplished style. Red square victory parade may 1st and then some quiet clean up.
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I still think their Nuclear threat is a bluff, they know the response and that Moscow would be a smoking hole.
They know as long as the West believes it they have carte blanche to carry out their operations in Ukraine, the West needs to up the anti in provided weaponary to really make a difference now Russia is hell bent on destroying their own army..
It is a shame they do not have the capability to hit the likes of the kremlin, though I still think the bridge in Crimea and Sevestapol would dent their ability to resupply their troops, not that they have been startling in that scenario.
They know as long as the West believes it they have carte blanche to carry out their operations in Ukraine, the West needs to up the anti in provided weaponary to really make a difference now Russia is hell bent on destroying their own army..
It is a shame they do not have the capability to hit the likes of the kremlin, though I still think the bridge in Crimea and Sevestapol would dent their ability to resupply their troops, not that they have been startling in that scenario.
I can't find it at the moment, but there was an intriguing Tweet yesterday, purportedly from someone representing the MoD to one of the Brit volunteers in Ukraine, asking him to use some secure email system to request any equipment or supplies he needed, saying that all export restrictions had been removed and anything could be supplied.
With the exception of fighter aircraft, I think the taps are fully open with regard to supplies to Ukraine. I suspect that was the primary purpose of the NATO meet-up yesterday.
the West needs to up the anti in provided weaponary to really make a difference now Russia is hell bent on destroying their own army..
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I suppose the trouble is providing equipment they know, a Patriot system might be ideal, but you wouldn't have anyone with a clue on how to operate it as an example. What ever you supply needs to be known by the Ukrainians and fit in with their existing systems.
Supplying NATO artillery would also involve setting up a whole new logs chain as NATO artillery uses a 155mm callibre (as well as 105) while Ukraine's existing guns are mainly 152mm so existing ammo won't fit NATO guns and vice versa. No impossible still but an extra complication. The basics of the sighting systems are also a bit different. NATO artillery uses 6400 Mil bearings but Ukraine (and other ex soviet countries) use 6000 Mils so you would need different compasses, protractors and fire control equipment depending on the guns. A certain level of mix-ups and potential friendly fire incidents would be expected in that scenario. If the guns had digital sights similar to LINAPS, it might be possible to do a software upgrade to convert the bearings to a 6000Mil circle and the language to Ukranian and likewise for the fire control software. Procuring surplus soviet era artillery and paying for 152mm shells to be made in the west and sent to Ukraine might be easier though.
No I haven't. There are three alternatives.
1) Fight a war of annihilation with total surrender
2) negotiated settlement purely Russo-Ukranian
3) Negotiated settlement as 2) with international guarantees.
You are saying 3) is no good, which logically has to mean 2) is worse, so is your answer 1° - all-out war fought to the death/exhaustion ?
1) Fight a war of annihilation with total surrender
2) negotiated settlement purely Russo-Ukranian
3) Negotiated settlement as 2) with international guarantees.
You are saying 3) is no good, which logically has to mean 2) is worse, so is your answer 1° - all-out war fought to the death/exhaustion ?
"If there are any sane people left in Nato, they will not approve [a peacekeeping] operation [in Ukraine]," military expert Colonel Yury Knutov said on state-owned Channel 1.
"Why? Because [a collective] Nato decision will mean a de facto declaration of war on Russia. To win this war, whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations."
Colonel Knutov said this would entail the "use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons" which he said "means universal nuclear war".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...PB2PNHPQHFPZA/
"Why? Because [a collective] Nato decision will mean a de facto declaration of war on Russia. To win this war, whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations."
Colonel Knutov said this would entail the "use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons" which he said "means universal nuclear war".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...PB2PNHPQHFPZA/
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Update shows satellite images of the two ships that departed the harbour on fire, one appears to be going round and round in circles.
When you look at this shot it looks like a damaged rudder control and it is moving away, but all be it in circles Shades of Bismark
https://twitter.com/sakkesarjakoski
..
When you look at this shot it looks like a damaged rudder control and it is moving away, but all be it in circles Shades of Bismark
https://twitter.com/sakkesarjakoski
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 25th Mar 2022 at 12:42.
I have always believed that the Russians placed a lot of faith in "hidden" signals about who was saying what that supposedly transcended the words. Since this spokesman was on a state-owned channel, I have to believe that he was spouting the party line, but what is a mere Russian colonel doing, talking about use of Russian nukes ? Is this a guarded warning to once again mention nukes, but water the threat down a little by having a colonel speak the words ,
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A fascinating insight into a way of calculating the Russian dead, they award a medal posthumously
https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-co...es-in-ukraine/
https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-co...es-in-ukraine/
With the beginning of the active phase of hostilities against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, reports about funerals of Russian military men became a mainstay of the Russian regional and federal media. In the early days, there was complete silence in the Russian media space, and this is easily explained. In order to be buried, the first Russians killed in action had to be brought to Russia, properly documented and then delivered to the burial place – this normally takes several days. It is also known that the Russian Federation either does not want, or does not have time to take all its bodies. Logistical problems for transporting of filled body bags are the same in the Russian army as with the botched logistics of the advancing invasion forces. Therefore, in the Russian press, news reports about the dead Russians have been appearing with a lag of a week or even 2-3 weeks. Therefore the mass media are becoming aware of the losses of the first days of the full-scale war only now. In this publication, InformNapalm volunteer intelligence community demonstrates an example of OSINT investigation aiming to verify the casualty data of the Russian Armed Forces. We turn to the Russian “medal count” for helpful information about the body count. Read the details in our investigation.
So let’s go back to March 2nd. Back then Ukraine announced Russian losses at 5840 killed military men. Effectively, these were the losses of the Russians in the first week of the war.
In recent weeks, we have begun to analyze reports in the Russian regional press and social media. We’ve looked through hundreds of news stories about funerals, hundreds of hospital videos, and thousands of social media posts. What did we see?
Individual senior officers are awarded the star of the Hero of Russia for severe wounds or posthumously. So Denis Shishov, the commander of the 11th Air Assault Brigade, wounded during the assault on Kakhovka, became a “hero”. His “feat” took place on February 25, and the news about the award appeared only two weeks later. Let’s quote:
ndeed, only a person gravely wounded to the head would defend the Donbas near Kakhovka.
The commander of the 331st Kostroma Regiment of the Airborne Forces, Colonel Sergei Sukharev, who was killed in Ukraine, received the Star of the Hero posthumously.
But junior officers and soldiers receive simpler awards. Wounded soldiers receive a Medal for Courage (a copy of the Soviet Medal for Courage) – this can be seen on almost all videos from hospitals.
Sometimes the wounded receive an Order of Courage, but for the most part, Russian soldiers earn only a basic medal for the wounds sustained.
Some awards are really ridiculous. For example, the governor of the Moscow Oblast presented to the wounded soldiers of the Russian Guard a regional badge with the pompous name “For Valor and Courage”.
This is not a state or departmental award, just a colored badge with a ribbon from the hands of local authorities.
Order of Courage (posthumously)
But how do we estimate the number of issued decorations? Some Russian soldiers and journalists post photos of decoration certificates showing the serial numbers of the awards and the day the award order was signed.
This is what a typical obituary of a Russian military man looks like after a tour of duty to Ukraine:
It is immediately striking that a large number of awards relate to the presidential decree signed on March 3 – this is about a week into the full-scale war against Ukraine. That is, those who died in the first days got on this decorations list. It was on this day that the Russians reported their losses for the first, and so far for the last time.
The lowest serial number of the posthumous Order of Courage according to the decree of March 3, 2022 which we could find is 78487.
The highest serial number is 83281.
The difference between them makes 4794 orders. This is a very rough assessment, because every day we find new numbers, and these figures will most probably be adjusted upwards, increasing the count of the decree of March 3rd. Most of the awards for this day are posthumous, because only the Medal for Courage was issued for non-lethal wounds.
That is, the number of issued posthumous awards approximately matches the data published by Ukraine on the losses of Russians in the first days of the war.
We proceed from the knowledge that the numbering of the Orders of Courage from the beginning of the full-scale war starts from numbers greater than 78xxx. But as our OSINT studies show, the numbering in the first days of the war has already exceeded 83,000.
The Order of Courage is also given to civilians, for example, for individual feats in extinguishing fires, or to important artists or scientists, but these cases are very rare. For the most part, this is a typical military award, and the intensity of decorations clearly correlates with the outbreak of hostilities – in Chechnya, Syria, Crimea-Donbas 2014 and others.
There are cases when an award with a lower serial number is issued by a new decree – perhaps to decorate somebody who was first missing in action, and then officially recognized as killed. Sometimes it could be a higher number on an old decree – these are also isolated cases, where some department might have reserved number slots for their awards. But mostly, we see serial numbers gradually increasing.
During the First Chechen War and until the end of the 90s the numbering was from 0 to 30000. During the Second Chechen War and before the seizure of Crimea and the war in the Donbas the numbers ranged from 30,000 to 60,000. The Ukrainian campaign for the Russian army started with numbers as of 7xxxx.
And Putin’s mass posthumous decoration of March 3 stands out prominently.
Russian losses in the first week
In the very first days, Ukraine immediately reported thousands of Russians killed in action. The Russians kept silent about the losses until March 2 – on that day, the Russian Ministry of Defense for the first time, and so far the last time, voiced an official report on the losses: 498 killed, 1597 wounded. Here we need to make a remark. Konashenkov is a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense – he talks about the losses of the Russian Army and units reporting to the Ministry of Defense. But the Russian Guard of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is also involved in the war against Ukraine. There are also Alpha and Vympel special operations forces as well as Russian border guards that belong to the FSB of the Russian Federation. The losses for these agencies have not yet been told at all.So let’s go back to March 2nd. Back then Ukraine announced Russian losses at 5840 killed military men. Effectively, these were the losses of the Russians in the first week of the war.
In recent weeks, we have begun to analyze reports in the Russian regional press and social media. We’ve looked through hundreds of news stories about funerals, hundreds of hospital videos, and thousands of social media posts. What did we see?
Vanya, would you have a medal or an order?
We could trace clear decoration patterns for the Russian military men involved in the war with Ukraine. All those killed receive the Order of Courage posthumously. Sometimes gravely wounded senior officers and individual military officers with spectacular wins, also receive this order – but these are isolated cases. Basically, the Order of Courage is now issued posthumously.Individual senior officers are awarded the star of the Hero of Russia for severe wounds or posthumously. So Denis Shishov, the commander of the 11th Air Assault Brigade, wounded during the assault on Kakhovka, became a “hero”. His “feat” took place on February 25, and the news about the award appeared only two weeks later. Let’s quote:
ndeed, only a person gravely wounded to the head would defend the Donbas near Kakhovka.
The commander of the 331st Kostroma Regiment of the Airborne Forces, Colonel Sergei Sukharev, who was killed in Ukraine, received the Star of the Hero posthumously.
But junior officers and soldiers receive simpler awards. Wounded soldiers receive a Medal for Courage (a copy of the Soviet Medal for Courage) – this can be seen on almost all videos from hospitals.
Sometimes the wounded receive an Order of Courage, but for the most part, Russian soldiers earn only a basic medal for the wounds sustained.
Some awards are really ridiculous. For example, the governor of the Moscow Oblast presented to the wounded soldiers of the Russian Guard a regional badge with the pompous name “For Valor and Courage”.
This is not a state or departmental award, just a colored badge with a ribbon from the hands of local authorities.
Order of Courage (posthumously)
But how do we estimate the number of issued decorations? Some Russian soldiers and journalists post photos of decoration certificates showing the serial numbers of the awards and the day the award order was signed.
This is what a typical obituary of a Russian military man looks like after a tour of duty to Ukraine:
It is immediately striking that a large number of awards relate to the presidential decree signed on March 3 – this is about a week into the full-scale war against Ukraine. That is, those who died in the first days got on this decorations list. It was on this day that the Russians reported their losses for the first, and so far for the last time.
The lowest serial number of the posthumous Order of Courage according to the decree of March 3, 2022 which we could find is 78487.
The highest serial number is 83281.
The difference between them makes 4794 orders. This is a very rough assessment, because every day we find new numbers, and these figures will most probably be adjusted upwards, increasing the count of the decree of March 3rd. Most of the awards for this day are posthumous, because only the Medal for Courage was issued for non-lethal wounds.
That is, the number of issued posthumous awards approximately matches the data published by Ukraine on the losses of Russians in the first days of the war.
What is the numbering system of Russian awards?
After the outbreak of the war in the Donbas in 2014, the numbering of the Orders of Courage was in the range of 70xxx – 77xxx. InformNapalm volunteers have repeatedly written about the awarding of this Order for participation in the Donbas hostilities. The highest serial number we have detected before was 77741.We proceed from the knowledge that the numbering of the Orders of Courage from the beginning of the full-scale war starts from numbers greater than 78xxx. But as our OSINT studies show, the numbering in the first days of the war has already exceeded 83,000.
The Order of Courage is also given to civilians, for example, for individual feats in extinguishing fires, or to important artists or scientists, but these cases are very rare. For the most part, this is a typical military award, and the intensity of decorations clearly correlates with the outbreak of hostilities – in Chechnya, Syria, Crimea-Donbas 2014 and others.
There are cases when an award with a lower serial number is issued by a new decree – perhaps to decorate somebody who was first missing in action, and then officially recognized as killed. Sometimes it could be a higher number on an old decree – these are also isolated cases, where some department might have reserved number slots for their awards. But mostly, we see serial numbers gradually increasing.
During the First Chechen War and until the end of the 90s the numbering was from 0 to 30000. During the Second Chechen War and before the seizure of Crimea and the war in the Donbas the numbers ranged from 30,000 to 60,000. The Ukrainian campaign for the Russian army started with numbers as of 7xxxx.
And Putin’s mass posthumous decoration of March 3 stands out prominently.
I think their gamble would be that public opinion in the West would be against the use of a nuclear weapon, even in retaliation/defence.