Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I think it was an incredibly clever thing for the Ukrainians to do! Who'd have thought about using information in the public domain, albeit broadcast by a Govt approved medium, to gain sufficient information to successfully target a ship whose accurate position was previously unknown?
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The other option is catastrophic defeat of Russian forces, and options there depend on Western/ NATO supplies.
And then one bomb on NATO territory and it’s game over.
I do wonder what the end-game will be.
This disaster can only end, from a Western and Ukrainin POV through Vlad being deposed. Prospects of that are optimistic and unlikely.
The other option is catastrophic defeat of Russian forces, and options there depend on Western/ NATO supplies.
And then one bomb on NATO territory and it’s game over.
I do wonder what the end-game will be.
The other option is catastrophic defeat of Russian forces, and options there depend on Western/ NATO supplies.
And then one bomb on NATO territory and it’s game over.
I do wonder what the end-game will be.
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Who the **** would sign up for a guarantee not worth the paper it’s written on, they tried that once with Russia, The U.K., The US and several other countries, one of them invaded them and the other two renegade on the agreement.
Sweet
Sweet
Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Mar 2022 at 22:32.
Who the **** would they agree a guard tee with worth the paper it’s written on, they tried that once with Russia The U.K., US and several other countries, one of them invaded them and the other two renamed on the agreement.
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I think the third option of a negotiated settlement with Ukraine losing lots of land, including Crimea, agreeing military neutrality and some kind of "guarantee" from ???, is most likely. Bitter for both sides as everybody outside Russia clearly sees that Russia has ( so far ) been out-fought and Ukraine loses more territory. Access to ports will be a major sticking-point.
Undoubtedly right, but I'm surprised that you ignore the very evident truth that - unlike many of us writing here - huge numbers are worried about their jobs, cost of getting to work, heating their homes, how to pay for the week-end's shopping, explaining to their families why all of this is suddenly a much bigger problem than it was just four weeks ago. Man does not live by discussing Ukraine alone, nor should he.
I am old enough to have known real hardship ............ father away in the war, Blitz, doodlebugs, mother went cleaning to keep me at grammar school, rationing, frost on the insides of the windows.
It won't or should not come to that in 2022, 2023 in the UK, but young folk are totally unprepared mentally: meals out, convenience food, throw-away clothing ...............
My cobbler recently mended a young man's shoes [itself a rare event, they usually buy a new pair.] "Can you polish them for me?" Cobbler was amazed and jokingly asked for a fiver. And the young man PAID A FIVER TO HAVE HIS SHOES POLISHED.
And therein lies the problem.
How can you negotiate any kind of treaty with someone who lies like a flatfish?
As the Finnish intelligence guy in the earlier video said - the art of public tactical and strategic lying is ingrained in Russian culture.
"Of course we won't attack you again comrade."
Just like they weren't going to invade.
If I was Zelensky, I'd want to ensure I was armed to the teeth going into the future before concluding any kind of `deal' with them.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
How can you negotiate any kind of treaty with someone who lies like a flatfish?
As the Finnish intelligence guy in the earlier video said - the art of public tactical and strategic lying is ingrained in Russian culture.
"Of course we won't attack you again comrade."
Just like they weren't going to invade.
If I was Zelensky, I'd want to ensure I was armed to the teeth going into the future before concluding any kind of `deal' with them.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
I think the third option of a negotiated settlement with Ukraine losing lots of land, including Crimea, agreeing military neutrality and some kind of "guarantee" from ???, is most likely. Bitter for both sides as everybody outside Russia clearly sees that Russia has ( so far ) been out-fought and Ukraine loses more territory. Access to ports will be a major sticking-point.
Assuming the US and NATO do not intervene militarily in the conflict, then, in the aftermath, a Marshall Plan for Ukraine be instituted and funded by Ukraine’s new treaty partners. The USA. might still be the leader of the west, but Ukraine has proven a superior moral leadership in the world and would be a valuable addition to NATO and EU.
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The only way I could see the West being able to guarantee Ukraines independence and freedom from Russian aggression in the future is oddly by giving them an independent nuclear threat back.
Short of that you would have to conventionally rearm them to a point which would deter aggression and I doubt they would be able to afford that.
They also would need their foreign debt cancelling. I do not think bearing in mind the losses over the years in trying to regain their lands stolen by Russia in 2014 that return of the Crimea etc would ever be off the final agreement.
Putin in the past used to bleat on about the cost of pumping gas through Ukraine, but we now see that was never his problems with the Country.
Short of that you would have to conventionally rearm them to a point which would deter aggression and I doubt they would be able to afford that.
They also would need their foreign debt cancelling. I do not think bearing in mind the losses over the years in trying to regain their lands stolen by Russia in 2014 that return of the Crimea etc would ever be off the final agreement.
Putin in the past used to bleat on about the cost of pumping gas through Ukraine, but we now see that was never his problems with the Country.
Latest attempts at nuclear intimidation:According to a report by news service East2West, several pro-Kremlin mouthpieces claimed Poland was seeking a Nato mandate to put peacekeepers in Ukraine.
"If there are any sane people left in Nato, they will not approve [a peacekeeping] operation [in Ukraine]," military expert Colonel Yury Knutov said on state-owned Channel 1.
"Why? Because [a collective] Nato decision will mean a de facto declaration of war on Russia. To win this war, whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations."
Colonel Knutov said this would entail the "use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons" which he said "means universal nuclear war".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...PB2PNHPQHFPZA/
"If there are any sane people left in Nato, they will not approve [a peacekeeping] operation [in Ukraine]," military expert Colonel Yury Knutov said on state-owned Channel 1.
"Why? Because [a collective] Nato decision will mean a de facto declaration of war on Russia. To win this war, whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations."
Colonel Knutov said this would entail the "use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons" which he said "means universal nuclear war".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...PB2PNHPQHFPZA/
So Colonel Knutov admits that Tac Nucs are needed - does he mean if NATO puts peacekeepers in Ukraine or in any event?
It seems that all the threats are coming from the Russians who are the aggressors. What would happen if the UN said they would sponsor the peacekeepers? The threat from Russia then becomes a declaration of war against the rest of the world.
If the war stopped today, under what conditions could any sort of realistic peace be enacted - I suggest there couldn't with the current Russian leadership.
Old Duffer
It seems that all the threats are coming from the Russians who are the aggressors. What would happen if the UN said they would sponsor the peacekeepers? The threat from Russia then becomes a declaration of war against the rest of the world.
If the war stopped today, under what conditions could any sort of realistic peace be enacted - I suggest there couldn't with the current Russian leadership.
Old Duffer
This article may be an insight into NATO planning, considering who wrote it. It may also be a diplomatic feint, circumstances and time will tell.
Guardian article from USA ambassador to NATO
Guardian article from USA ambassador to NATO
So Colonel Knutov admits that Tac Nucs are needed - does he mean if NATO puts peacekeepers in Ukraine or in any event?
It seems that all the threats are coming from the Russians who are the aggressors. What would happen if the UN said they would sponsor the peacekeepers? The threat from Russia then becomes a declaration of war against the rest of the world.
If the war stopped today, under what conditions could any sort of realistic peace be enacted - I suggest there couldn't with the current Russian leadership.
Old Duffer
It seems that all the threats are coming from the Russians who are the aggressors. What would happen if the UN said they would sponsor the peacekeepers? The threat from Russia then becomes a declaration of war against the rest of the world.
If the war stopped today, under what conditions could any sort of realistic peace be enacted - I suggest there couldn't with the current Russian leadership.
Old Duffer
Spot on wrt the current Russian leadership. One man is The Problem. The Problem cannot lose face because as soon as he does, he's toast internally. That's why this is such a dangerous situation - The Problem is clearly not playing with a full deck and is unconstrained by conventional political governance methods.
The only way this gets solved is via the apparently endemic Russian problem of ill-health caused by faulty windows.
"the apparently endemic Russian problem of ill-health caused by faulty windows."
I think you'll find that it's actually a Czech invention .... and a serious cause of death in South Africa pre 1990. There were the odd unfortunate car accidents inside Russia pre 1940 but most people near the top were actually arrested, tried and shot with a full paper trail eg Beria. I'm sure they appreciated it.
I think you'll find that it's actually a Czech invention .... and a serious cause of death in South Africa pre 1990. There were the odd unfortunate car accidents inside Russia pre 1940 but most people near the top were actually arrested, tried and shot with a full paper trail eg Beria. I'm sure they appreciated it.
There's a possibility of them lashing out, but to what aim, to save face? Will they really risk it all just for this? I'm not sure they're that insane.
I know there was a lot of talk about giving Putin an off-ramp, but I wonder if it ought to be more of a psychological 'out' i.e. say something like your forces fought valiantly and downplay the Ukrainian's successes? Maybe this will be enough for them to spin something positive for their public.