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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 18th Aug 2023, 16:15
  #1741 (permalink)  
 
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there were in the Falklands - the only problem was they were Argentinean...........
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Old 18th Aug 2023, 21:30
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Originally Posted by T28B
notasmodnoradmin
China's economy is very large, and is a very important piece of the global economy.
If they crash, won't we all feel it?
China has expanded it's internal economy through the rise of the middle class over the last 45 years. They have a high end consumerism associated with that, but otherwise the rest of the world provides food (china is not self sustaining in food supply), raw materials including energy. The middle class developed wealth through the arbitrage of production for the rest of the world, and from the property boom that PRC allowed and encouraged to occur. Their property boom didn't make sense 33 years ago, and has almost exactly the same fundamental problems today. The xenophobic business practices of the PRC makes the impact of a property collapse particularly relevant to the PRC. Their domestic demand will reduce during a market correction in their property market and that mainly affects their developers, manufacturing demand will soften where there is any flow on outside of their borders.

Xi will need to cope with a loss of confidence of his middle class and concern of the rest related to the adverse conditions, and the need to actually do something other than be isolated in ignorance due to his penchant of removing life from the bodies of messengers with unpalatable reports. Having a regional tiff from grandiose, empire expansion plans, mainly against the countries that feed your population, wasting domestic reserves... not a good look, not even in Vladland.

Taiwan still needs regional and global support to keep Xi at bay, that doesn't go away, but Xi's attention will be preoccupied in reducing the impact of a bubble burst that has grown over a long time, and while apparent, has not had any intervention.
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Old 23rd Aug 2023, 21:37
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Philippine supply boats breach a Chinese coast guard blockade in the hotly contested South China Sea (msn.com)
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Old 23rd Aug 2023, 21:51
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Night Stalker Helicopters Train To Defend Strategic Alaskan Island (msn.com)
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Old 24th Aug 2023, 10:51
  #1745 (permalink)  
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Along with most other scholars of my generation, I've been studying political economy in China for more than 25 years. What's happening there is not so simple as 'party's over'. For a little context and analysis, here is a brief :
​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...551334338.html
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 10:03
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Originally Posted by T28B
notasmodnoradmin
China's economy is very large, and is a very important piece of the global economy.
If they crash, won't we all feel it?
Not really, they produce nothing strategic for us (the West), mainly a cheap low cost provider of consumer goods and low value engineered goods, much of which production is gradually being reshored back to the West anyway. They are undoubtedly a large importer of western luxury goods but the economy of the west is not built on luxury goods manufacture.
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 12:31
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Not really, they produce nothing strategic for us (the West), mainly a cheap low cost provider of consumer goods and low value engineered goods, much of which production is gradually being reshored back to the West anyway. They are undoubtedly a large importer of western luxury goods but the economy of the west is not built on luxury goods manufacture.
Those words may come back to haunt you.
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 13:16
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The top exports of China are Broadcasting Equipment ($231B), Computers ($192B), Integrated Circuits ($158B), Office Machine Parts ($101B), and Telephones ($53.9B), exporting mostly to United States ($530B), Hong Kong ($323B), Japan ($168B), South Korea ($140B), and Germany ($134B).

In 2021, China was the world's biggest exporter of Broadcasting Equipment ($231B), Computers ($192B), Office Machine Parts ($101B), Telephones ($53.9B), and Semiconductor Devices ($49.2B)

IMPORTSThe top imports of China are Crude Petroleum ($208B), Integrated Circuits ($171B), Iron Ore ($146B), Petroleum Gas ($56.6B), and Copper Ore ($52.4B), importing mostly from South Korea ($158B), Japan ($153B), United States ($151B), Australia ($138B), and Chinese Taipei ($126B).

and of course all those lovely Airbus and Boeing jets

Last week s Economist noted that the US particularly is trying to cut imports from China - trouble is no-one else makes the stuff so they have to go to outfits in India, S E Asia - who import the stuff from China - rebadge it and....................
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 16:30
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
The top exports of China are Broadcasting Equipment ($231B), Computers ($192B), Integrated Circuits ($158B), Office Machine Parts ($101B), and Telephones ($53.9B), exporting mostly to United States ($530B), Hong Kong ($323B), Japan ($168B), South Korea ($140B), and Germany ($134B).

In 2021, China was the world's biggest exporter of Broadcasting Equipment ($231B), Computers ($192B), Office Machine Parts ($101B), Telephones ($53.9B), and Semiconductor Devices ($49.2B)

IMPORTSThe top imports of China are Crude Petroleum ($208B), Integrated Circuits ($171B), Iron Ore ($146B), Petroleum Gas ($56.6B), and Copper Ore ($52.4B), importing mostly from South Korea ($158B), Japan ($153B), United States ($151B), Australia ($138B), and Chinese Taipei ($126B).

and of course all those lovely Airbus and Boeing jets

Last week s Economist noted that the US particularly is trying to cut imports from China - trouble is no-one else makes the stuff so they have to go to outfits in India, S E Asia - who import the stuff from China - rebadge it and....................
Once the need is obvious, someone other than the Chinese will fill the vacuum. Takes awhile.
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 16:48
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No mention of natural resources in that list. Where does the stuff that those things are made from come from? If you need to go to China for the raw materials, you are not really much further forward are you?
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 18:15
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
No mention of natural resources in that list. Where does the stuff that those things are made from come from? If you need to go to China for the raw materials, you are not really much further forward are you?
China produces a lot of that stuff because - with their total disregard of the environment impacts - they can produce it much cheaper than other areas.
If the demand is there and China isn't filling it, those other areas become more viable (at a higher dollar cost - but a lower environmental cost).
Granted, the lead times will be rather long initially, but the production will happen.
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 21:08
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"No mention of natural resources in that list."

Crude, petroleum, Natural gas, copper...??????
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 21:30
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Originally Posted by tdracer
China produces a lot of that stuff because - with their total disregard of the environment impacts - they can produce it much cheaper than other areas.
If the demand is there and China isn't filling it, those other areas become more viable (at a higher dollar cost - but a lower environmental cost).
Granted, the lead times will be rather long initially, but the production will happen.
So while we may be able to source all those products elsewhere, the price of the raw materials and labour will be so high we will not be able to afford them?
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Old 25th Aug 2023, 21:48
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
So while we may be able to source all those products elsewhere, the price of the raw materials and labour will be so high we will not be able to afford them?
china is not a cheap labor country anymore. Many chinese and western countries are moving, india and vietnam are the big 2. but other countries are getting a good numbers like thailand and indonesia.
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Old 26th Aug 2023, 11:44
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Originally Posted by rattman
china is not a cheap labor country anymore. Many chinese and western countries are moving, india and vietnam are the big 2. but other countries are getting a good numbers like thailand and indonesia.
If true, then all we need do is sit back and wait for economic pressure to reduce the West's reliance on Chinese imports.
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Old 26th Aug 2023, 20:31
  #1756 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
If true, then all we need do is sit back and wait for economic pressure to reduce the West's reliance on Chinese imports.
It is true, apple is currently leaving china, mostly to india but vietnam and the US as well. One of the suppliers for the company I work has warned us supply disruptions as they are in the process of moving to vietnam. Another has completed the move already
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Old 30th Aug 2023, 06:53
  #1757 (permalink)  
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66654645

China map: India lodges 'strong protest' over territory claims

India says it has lodged a "strong protest" with China over a new map that lays claim to its territory.

Indian media have reported that the map shows the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau as China's territory.

It was released by China's ministry of natural resources on Monday.

"We reject these claims as they have no basis," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said. He added that such steps by China "only complicate the resolution of the boundary question".

Beijing has not officially responded yet.

India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar also called China's claim "absurd".

"China has even in the past put out maps which claim the territories which are not China's, which belong to other countries. This is an old habit of theirs," he told TV channel NDTV on Tuesday.

India's protest comes days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on the sidelines of the Brics summit in South Africa.

An Indian official said afterwards that the two countries had agreed to "intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation" along the disputed border……
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Old 30th Aug 2023, 07:28
  #1758 (permalink)  
 
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Oh God - back to the border issue again

One of the problems is that India will never contemplate changing or even discussing the old British Imperial claims - to which the Chinese never agreed

PS it also shows Taiwan as part of China of course and the Nine Dash Line further south - nothing new
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Old 30th Aug 2023, 16:07
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Everything is fine because James Cleverly is in China to kiss, well do something. Britain is so broken.
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Old 30th Aug 2023, 16:36
  #1760 (permalink)  
 
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you can't ignore 25% of the worlds population - we need their money TBH
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