Defence Review Result at End of October

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

If the axe comes down on VC10 which it surely will. What will replace it in MPA in the short term?

[Ivan Rogov]

PA good point well made, I lose!

No not an AEO just prone to bad spooling, unfortunately spell checker just tells me how to spell the wrong words correctly

OTTB I had no idea the 10 was filling in for nimrod

[vecvechookattack]

If the axe comes down on VC10 which it surely will. What will replace it in MPA in the short term?

Nothing will replace it. We don't need an MPA capability

[Jayand]

Hmm, perhaps he meant the hard fought for outpost in the South Atlantic.

[ORAC]

Nothing will replace it. We don't need an MPA capability

If you were airborne out of MPA in a Typhoon and the weather suddenly clamped, against the forecast, and your only available options were to divert to Chile or hold for a couple of hours - you might think differently.

Not everyone can just land in car park or on a passing freighter......

[Ivan Rogov]

What are the chances of using the Herc, are the wings plumbed on the Js?

[Ken Scott]

The wings can take external tanks but not a refuelling pod. Besides, the Js can't be expected to fill every 'capability holiday'. We're already doing the UK long range SAR while the MRA4 works up, we can't take over from the VC10s as we have our own job to do.

And alledgedly we're out of service in 2015 anyway.

[Squirrel 41]

Ok, it's less than six weeks away, so here's my 0.02....

UK QRA and MPA QRA
3 or 4 Sqns of Typhoon and 1 OCU. Total active airframes c. 65 of 105 long term (Tranche 2/Tranche 3a) fleet. Tranche 3b dead. AMRAAM sufficient, Meteor integration completed but procured to stores if the contract is tight enough to make it more expensive to bin than to procure. Otherwise, stick with AIM-120 and ASRAAM. 2 Sqns + OCU at CGY, 1 or 2 at Kinloss; maintain MPA. Close Leu and Leeming unless A6 hub becomes J6 hub.

FW manned Strike Reconnaissance
Harrier retired in 2010. Close Cottesmore & Wittering.
GR4 fleet reduced to 4 Sqns + OCU with firm OSD of 2020/22 when replaced by Dave-C (F-35C) force of c. 75 airframes. GR4 to continue to provide 1 Sqn in Afghanistan to provides RAPTOR and CAS in rotation; Storm Shadow retained for strategic conventional strike. Marham closed, Lossie as GR4 hub.

UAV
Predator / Reaper retained whilst support to Afghan ops. Core funding as UK owned operation from 2016/17. Probably remains collocated with USAF at Creech.

ISTAR
E-3D component reduced to min airframes for NATO. Potential to pool airframes with France and NAEWF. Navigator position eliminated with cockpit upgrade.

Sentinel / ASTOR retained, explore UK cost sharing with the NATO ground surveillance pool.

RJ - three airframes from 2014ish.

King Air / Shadow? Who knows?

Waddo stays.

Transport AAR
C-17 x 6
C-130K and C-130J to be replaced by 22 x A400M
FSTA PFI to be scrapped. 10 x A330K to be procured conventionally over longer timescale to 2017 to replace VC-10 and TriStar. Excess capacity to be shared with France / NATO. BZN remains as sole AT/AAR hub.

32[TR] Sqn? No idea, but unlikely to be retained. Depends how much Cabinet Office and the Departments want to retain it. Northolt retained, but with increased commercial operations.

SH
All SH transferred to AAC by 2016
Puma Mk 2 binned, Benson closes.
48 Chinook HC2/HC2A to be retained after Project Julius.
Merlin HC3 to CHF.

Maritime
Depends on future of Trident / SSBN. If SSBN binned, then MRA4 probably toast. Else, MRA4 to be focussed on ASW/ASuW and long-range SAR; Dept of Transport to provide inshore SAR cover commercially and DEFRA to provide fisheries patrol / EEZ patrol.

RAF Regiment
Sadly, probably for amalgamation into British Army. Honnington to Catterick?

Flying Training
Stop Nav training, and send FJ training to NFTC. Close Valley, Linton and some elements of Cranwell. MFTS binned. BFTS retained, UASs probably binned too.

Does this about cover it? RAFAT and BBMF to be retained. Would also bin the Groups and move a (much smaller) Air Command to Scampton. High Wycombe to become a posh housing estate.

S41

[Martin the Martian]

Very well thought out, Squirrel, and I would agree with most of your conclusions. The only points I disagree/add to with are:

GR4 fleet reduced to 60 aircraft, with three squadrons+OCU;

Shadow to replace Northolt Islanders;

32 Sqdn FW fleet replaced by 4-6 leased biz-jets;

Nav training to 750 NAS at Culdrose;

Retention of FJ training at Valley.

[NURSE]

My thoughts

Regt to loose 2 Sqns

Hercules to be replaced By A400m cheaper than refit and contract cancellation. (Brize Norton)

FSTA hopefully PFI canceled and A330K's procured and sorted out. (Brize Norton)

Harrier to RN and its replacement

Tornado Scrapped nil replacement

Typhoon Tranche 3 procured and full swing role developed (RAF Conningsby/Leeming)

Sentry reduce by 3 airframes(airframes convert to rivet joint) (RAF waddington)

Nimrod MR4 no change (RAF waddington)

Chinook HC2 fleet standardised upgraded to CH47F (RAF Odiham)
Chinook HC3 fleet Standardised upgraded to CH47F (RAF Odiham)
Puma upgrade scrapped along with puma
Merlin transfared to RN and maritimised

shadow no change

[Sook]

Dr Fox meets the Canadian Defence Minister

So Mr MacKay, tell me how this Canadian Defence Force works....

Ministry of Defence | Defence News | Defence Policy and Business | British and Canadian Defence Ministers meet

[minigundiplomat]

My thoughts,

RAF

Tornado GR4 phased out over 2 years, replaced with Typhoon.

F18/F35 dependant on carriers/RN

Rivet Joint/Sentinal/UAV's expanded until 2015 - then held at existing level from that point.

Nimrod - Phased out.

Sentry - Reduced in number, possibly phased out.

C130 - Replaced by A400M if it ever arrives.

Tristar/VC10 - Replaced by Future Tanker PFI on a reduced scale.

C17 - Retained. Possibly an extra 1 or 2 to cover A400M delays.

Merlin - Not sure. If RM goes to Army, it may stay RAF to keep SH Force intact. Otherwise, to CHF.

Puma - Phased out.

Chinook - Retained. Upgraded to Julius, not sure the extra 22 will ever arrive. I would guess at an extra 8-12.

RAF Regt - Retained. However, I would guess at a cull post 2015 when the current high tempo FP commitment in the stan folds.

Navy

Carriers - Either cancelled, or shared with FN. F35 unlikely.

Trident - 3 boats instead of 4. Capability 'holidays' accepted.

RM - Hmmm, could be absorbed into Army, and CHF disbanded. However, I can't really see much in the way of financial saving there, so feel RM will continue.

Army

Heavy Armour - Phased out. Brigade level cut.

Artillery - Reduced in number, with air assault/RM batteries safest.

AAC - Apache safe. Wildcat, again Hmmm. I would guess at yes, but in reduced numbers.

Infantry - No change.

SF - No change. Possibly expansion of SFSG.

Logistics - Possible scaling down of manpower/vehicle numbers, leaning.


All 3

Severe axe taken to senior officers. More jointery at top level, about the same at lower levels to avoid duplication. Less staff appointments in HQ's.

Pensions - up to 3% contributory, with those still on AFPS 75 having to transfer on promotion. Stricter, but more generous T's & C's.

Promotion - Less of. Possibly more devolution to Unit commanders such as the Army already has, across all 3 services.

[Melchett01]

Pensions - up to 3% contributory, with those still on AFPS 75 having to transfer on promotion. Stricter, but more generous T's & C's.

Which is pretty much what I am hearing, namely a new pension that will make 05 look positively generous. And whilst they won't be able to force people on to the new scheme, and change in ToS e.g. promotion, assimilation or re-engagement will be accompanied with a transfer to the new scheme.

If correct, I see the net result of this being several-fold:

A lot of older personnel on 75 scheme will refuse promotion etc and will leave at next option point;

Those coming into the service on in their early years with a 'career' ahead of them won't miss what they have never had and will carry on, albeit with stricter pension terms i.e contributory, preserved pensions only or vastly reduced payouts from 20 / 22 yr point vice 16 / 18 yr point.

Coupled with more people being taken on short non-pensionable engagements, the Armed Forces demographics will change, making them a lot younger and the Forces more of a 'first career' rather than a job for life for the vast majority, which will gradually reduce MOD pension liabilities over time.

[NURSE]

As for the Army

Heavy armour will be cut the MBT's demise has been forecast since 1989 and proved wrong. Same
Loss of 4 Cavalry regiments and
maybe 5 Inf Bns including

Gurkhas taken over by Sultan of Brunei
and to push the NI peace process forward the Royal Irish regt , Irish Guards and Parachute regiment

Lynx replacement cancelled
AS90 and Light gun replaced by M777

TA slashed by 75%

Navy

1 carrier completed
1 completed as LPH
Ocean, Illistrious and Ark Royal sold or scrapped
LPD's 1 on long term refit
LPD(A) no change
Point class RoRo sold to comercial interest.

Sub fleet reduced to 6 astute and 3 Vanguard

Mine Hunters
fleet halved

6x Type 45
6 new frigates to replace type 22/23
6 Corvette/Lt Frigate to replace 22/23

river patrol ships no change
Survey fleet endurance not replaced

RM become a Land asset
CHF merlin
lynx cancelled
6 merlins converted to AEW

SF
SAS and SBS merged
SRS And Raiding support regt amalgamated

[NURSE]

Minigun diplomat why bin Nimrod MRA4? yes the chances of it having to chase russian subs is probably nil but it brings so much more to the party in its secondry roles. Most of the mission systems are proven and the crews are working up.

[Wrathmonk]

Commenting on other's views ....

.... Agree on the reduced (but not deleted) GR4. If its Lossie vs Marham I suspect Lossie will go into care and maintenance pending F35 decision as Marham has the Depth facility.

.... No change to Regt TFN. Should AFG end in 2015 then reduced in subsquent PRs (as will Infantry).

.... JFH will go. Fullstop. Transfer to the RN saves nothing. Sadly that may mean the carriers will go as well.

And with my barrack room lawyer hat on couldn't the (refusal of) 'enforced' pension change on promotion/service extension effectively be seen as constructive dismissal, particularly as we have no contract in the first place? Where's the ex F4 driving lawyer when you need him??

[minigundiplomat]

NURSE,

above is not a comment on what I hope happens, or for what reason. The above post was a guestimate of what is likely to happen.

Re Nimrod, I know the roles to which you allude very well. How do you assign them a value and justify them on a balance sheet?

If that proves difficult, or is seen as less valuable than something else then I suspect you'll be waving goodbye to it after October.

Don't like it mate, but that's the way things are shaping up.

[NURSE]

I love the expectation the treasury has after each deployment ends there is an expectation of a "peace dividend" speking to a Rock Ape that dividend will include some of the best bits of kit the infantry has like the Minimi, AGL & UGL , marksman rifle and Jakal's.

I'm not so sure of your assessment on Nimrod i think its value added is well recognised and given some of the other platforms/projects I've heard are for chop it retains a good chunk of ISTA capability.

[Squirrel 41]

NURSE,

I love the expectation the treasury has after each deployment ends there is an expectation of a "peace dividend" speking to a Rock Ape that dividend will include some of the best bits of kit the infantry has like the Minimi, AGL & UGL , marksman rifle and Jakal's.

The issue with Urgent Operational Requirements (UORs) is a known problem, and has been understood as such for many years. A cornerstone of the system was an understanding that the MoD budget is scaled for peacetime operations and training, and that combat operations and specific spending are funded from the Treasury Reserve. This was eroded over a number of years, but the main point to take away is that UORs were never funded as core capability unless the MoD found the money from somewhere else to pay for them.

Does this mean that I want to go to war without the UORs? Obviously not. But what our over-reliance on UORs actually shows is that the conventional procurement system is dysfunctional. I (guess, I don't know) that the rebaselining of capability of bringing UOR capabilities into core will be one of the most difficult elements of the SDSR process. Good luck to all involved....

S41

[harrier123]

Any idea when the possible pension changes are likely to come into effect? I am due a promotion Mar next year. I am on AFP75 and would like to stay on that. I think if we only have to put 3% towards our pension then we will have done well in today's world.