5 more 773-ERs
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5 more 773-ERs
I see another 5 777-300ER ordered taking to a total of 23. I they keep all the current -200s and 300s that will take the 777 fleet to 40.
Will this have any affect on CoS negotiations at all??? Or is it timely to help them push with RA65?
Will this have any affect on CoS negotiations at all??? Or is it timely to help them push with RA65?
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According to CX they are due for delivery in 2011.
On the thread "Cathay Pacific CoS - URGENT ACTION REQUIRED" I did some projections of time to command in different growth scenarios.
In 2011 I had us receiving between 4-12 a/c. 4 a/c equates to a low growth period like 1993-2000(7 years). The long term growth rate would require 9 a/c, and the high growth scenario requires 12. So no, the 5 a/c currently ordered for 2011 currently has no material effect on planned upgrades.
Assuming they order at least 4 a/c for 2010 ( I assumed in that post that all a/c for 2009 onwards(11) were delivered in 2009), then command time will be less than the 15 1/2 - 20 1/2 year range predicted from the low growth rate scenario. If everyone left at 55 it would be 15 1/2 - if everyone stays till 65 it will be 20 1/2 years to command.
To achieve approx 12 years to command for new joiners(RA65 included) we need to be getting 9 a/c in each of 2010 and 2011. Since we have ordered 5 for 2011, we now only need 13 more for 2010/11 to keep the long term growth rate going and keep command time 1 year quicker than QF!
I used to be an optimist but there are just too many clouds around these silver linings!
On the thread "Cathay Pacific CoS - URGENT ACTION REQUIRED" I did some projections of time to command in different growth scenarios.
In 2011 I had us receiving between 4-12 a/c. 4 a/c equates to a low growth period like 1993-2000(7 years). The long term growth rate would require 9 a/c, and the high growth scenario requires 12. So no, the 5 a/c currently ordered for 2011 currently has no material effect on planned upgrades.
Assuming they order at least 4 a/c for 2010 ( I assumed in that post that all a/c for 2009 onwards(11) were delivered in 2009), then command time will be less than the 15 1/2 - 20 1/2 year range predicted from the low growth rate scenario. If everyone left at 55 it would be 15 1/2 - if everyone stays till 65 it will be 20 1/2 years to command.
To achieve approx 12 years to command for new joiners(RA65 included) we need to be getting 9 a/c in each of 2010 and 2011. Since we have ordered 5 for 2011, we now only need 13 more for 2010/11 to keep the long term growth rate going and keep command time 1 year quicker than QF!
I used to be an optimist but there are just too many clouds around these silver linings!
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Short, simple answer. It will have no effect to the CoS (in terms of the better for the pilot group that is!).
CX will man those fancy jets - whatever it takes. Not, initially at least that is, by improving CoS but by lowering the requirements for new recruits. Any kinds of shortcuts will be taking into consideration (as would/will be with many other carriers). There are, unfortunately that is, still enough guys out there who a desperate to get jobs flying heavy jets (may they wake up someday). Fortunately more than a few are using their experience from CX to go to greener pastures (and yes, they are out there!).
CX will man those fancy jets - whatever it takes. Not, initially at least that is, by improving CoS but by lowering the requirements for new recruits. Any kinds of shortcuts will be taking into consideration (as would/will be with many other carriers). There are, unfortunately that is, still enough guys out there who a desperate to get jobs flying heavy jets (may they wake up someday). Fortunately more than a few are using their experience from CX to go to greener pastures (and yes, they are out there!).
