Missions to Mars

[ORAC]

Starting the thread as Musk has started the clock running at 3 years/2027.

Mars launch windows.

https://x.com/peterrhague/status/1800499615105437866?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
In order to reach orbit, Starship had to be accelerated by about 9 km/s. Based on staging velocity and rough estimate of gravity losses, the Superheavy booster contributed about 3km/s of that. That is staging a little early as rockets go but it is necessary for booster recovery.

So Starship gave itself around 6km/s of extra velocity after staging in a single continuous burn.

What I think is throwing off ordinary people's intuitions about the timetable for Mars is that they think in terms of how far away it is, not the energy require to get there. Most Mars transfers require much less than a 6km/s change in velocity, so Starship has already demonstrated the required capability. All it needs is its tanks topping up to it can do it starting from Earth orbit and not from low velocity in the atmosphere.

There are a lot of technical issues going to Mars - but if @SpaceX can crack on-orbit refuelling in 2025 then in the 2026 window there is no physical reason they can't start taking shots on goal.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1283x792/image_f46a653f9c89a409c25bc0ff37a7be9d8d2e8abd.png
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[TURIN]

Isn't the goal to land on the moon first? That will also need on orbit refuelling. I know that SpaceX move fast and multiple launch facilities could well be up and running in a couple of years but I still think this is optimistic even for Musk.
I could see a moon landing in 3 years but not Mars. That's at least 5 years away.
However I will be delighted to be proven wrong. 😁

[tdracer]

Did Musk actually say land? Or just "go to Mars"?

Landing on Mars is technically much more difficult than the moon. Not only are we talking a much larger planetary body with a much larger gravitational field, Mars has the double challenge of having enough atmosphere to make heating during entry a huge issue, but not nearly enough for aerodynamic breaking to make a big contribution to the needed delta V to land.

[ORAC]

As with the lunar missions I think the first stages will be placing tankers for the return trip refuelling, in orbit supplies, deploying a gps/comms constellation in orbit and identifying the optimum landing site before even an unmanned landing is on the cards.