Greatest opportunity for pilots amid crisis?

[Malkovitch]

I might well be opening a can of worms here, but this crisis could be the perfect opportunity for us pilots to uprise and get what we are worth. At the moment we are seen as just an asset, a cost that has to be paid to keep the planes in the air. As soon as the **** hits the fan, as we have seen with Covid19, the first to go are the staff. But if/when (and I very much hope when) everything returns to somewhat normal they will need us back in the cockpit quicksmart. If we can at least resist, argue what we are worth, how much we mean to airlines. This could be the best opportunity for pilots to get back what they deserve. Without us the planes will remain grounded. I'm not greedy. I have debts from flying school. Of which the unemployment benefit I will receive will only just cover the loan repayments. I've worked two jobs to cover it all until I became a FO and when I finally did,t wage I got was only slightly better than driving my delivery van around. I love my job, wouldn't change. But come on. We deserve better. Discuss-

[neville_nobody]

If a big airline(s) go broke it will become quite the opposite. There will be 1000s of unemployed pilots with plenty of experience and nowhere to work. Salaries will either decrease or stay stagnant for a long time. You will find the airlines that survive will leverage this for many years to come.

If you were just starting or learning to fly your best option would be to stop for a few years.

[0ttoL]

I keep thinking that freight is the thing that must continue; or at least, be the first to return.
Governments want businesses to continue so that jobs are preserved.
Businesses need materials, parts, delivery mechanisms etc to continue.

Airlines should be converting to freight, and I think they still need pilots, engineers, dispatch, ATC etc etc

[WB627]

Malkovitch

Good luck with that. I'm sorry, but as far as your bosses are concerned, you are not an asset, just an overhead. They can't wait for the day they can fly people around with no one on the flight deck.

[Easy Peasy]

EK is moving the bar in the incorrect direction. Their pilots, who have complained about being underpaid already, are now going to be flying for 50% less!

[Longtimer]

Malkovitch (https://www.pprune.org/members/417323-malkovitch) . you talk about pilots rising up and getting what they are worth. Sadly the market today says they are getting exactly what they are worth based on current union agreements, etc.

[power margin 2020]

Tough call... easy time to price yourself out of the market.. Corporate is less inclined to reward experience, Rather they would pay for someone to train from scratch. and let them bend some metal along te way... Just makes better sense on the earnings call. Like Mike Corleone said .."Its not personal Sonny, Its strictly business"....


Have a plan B

[Meester proach]

Greatest opportunity - currently Aldi and lidl paying £9.50/hr

[bringbackthe80s]

I hope this thread is a windup

[Audax]

Malkovitch, to be frank, the pilots are just one link in the chain. What about the cabin crew, ground crew, engineers, baggage handlers etc etc etc, all of whom are essential for getting the aircraft airborne?

[Smooth Airperator]

One solution to tackle corporate greed and runaway executive pay/bonuses is a co-operative style of operation where the company is run for the benefit of employees and customers, not greedy shareholders and executives who care about neither. If you want to launch one, we'll all be right behind you. Sadly, co-ops suffer from a chronic lack of finance and funding because the banks always want a healthy stake before they hand over the cash.

[Mach E Avelli]

Pilots currently employed by freight airlines will probably retain existing T & Cs, as their segment of the industry should be OK. But it is highly unlikely that they will see any pay increases, other than perhaps productivity incentives to fly maximum hours.
Pilots & cabin crew etc currently employed in airlines geared to passenger operations do not have a rosy short term future. The usual laws of supply and demand will likely see conditions get worse as pilots squabble like seagulls over the scraps remaining and ruthless management exploit this. This will not be a time for any staff - from pilots to baggage handlers - to make demands; rather a time to keep a low profile and hope your employer survives.

[Malkovitch]

Malkovitch, to be frank, the pilots are just one link in the chain. What about the cabin crew, ground crew, engineers, baggage handlers etc etc etc, all of whom are essential for getting the aircraft airborne?

Yes of course. Forgot to mention them. They are also invaluable. And as someone else mentioned. Asset was the wrong word. We are all just overheads

[Bend alot]

as pilots squabble like seagulls over the scraps

And well before Corona was even a popular beer.

[Malkovitch]

Greatest opportunity - currently Aldi and lidl paying £9.50/hr

Yep. Got my interview tomorrow with Morrisons to drive a van.

[sheikhthecamel]

Three main factors at play here:

The supply / demand equation: the democratisation of air travel has grown the industry dramatically in the last decades, but how will the current crisis affect the future? Will demand come back up quickly, or will there be a new normal at lower demand?
The passengers willingness to forgo any form of comfort/luxury in the name of cost. This is a huge burden on legacy airlines and has driven the industry to very skinny margins.
The high operating leverage of airlines means that they are laser focused on cash-flows and costs. Of those, cost is the only one they can control.

(1) is a global problem, and we can only hope that we will return to something approaching the old normal, but there are serious question marks.
(2) and (3) are industry structural issues, and very difficult to back out of that corner.

I'm afraid that there is not an awful lot that pilots can do to influence these factors...

[waco]

Drivel of the highest order.
If and when this crisis is solved the economic consequences are mind blowing.

A few small national carriers may continue.

Everyone else will be concerned with food and shelter.

[NoelEvans]

I hope this thread is a windup
I hope so too!

As I have said elsewhere, once the demand for your highly qualified services dries up and the money runs out, your 'worth' is nil. Harsh but true.I love my job, wouldn't change. But come on. We deserve better. Discuss- Yes, we all love our jobs (well, there are some who love the image more than the job). But we only 'deserve' what is logically attainable. Try to elevate yourself onto too high a platform and reality will just give you further to fall.

[Ascoteer]

I'm not greedy. I have debts from flying school. Of which the unemployment benefit I will receive will only just cover the loan repayments. I've worked two jobs to cover it all until I became a FO and when I finally did,t wage I got was only slightly better than driving my delivery van around.

It's going to be like this in the long term.

[Smooth Airperator]

Give the guy a break. He is no different to the hundreds that embark on this journey every year. How did he know it was going to go to sh*t. The first 2 or 3 years as an FO is always painful income wise.

[Webby737]

I hope the OP was trying to p*ss us off !
There could not be a worst time in recent history to try and "uprise and get what we are worth"
Yes, historically pilots, cabin crew and engineers have been underpaid in comparison to many other industries such as IT etc.
About 20 years ago I remember seeing a job offer for a McDonalds branch manager that paid more than I was earning as an engineer at the time.
Anyway, back to the subject !
The financial impact of this is going to be felt for a long time, even assuming a best case scenario where most carriers survive there's not going to be the same passenger traffic as before, think of how many people have or will lose their jobs, they're not going to have the financial security to spend money on luxuries such as a weekend break in the sun.
In addition to this, further down the line someone is going to have to pay the governments for the cost of all of this, so more than likely we'll be seeing an increase in taxes in a year or two.

Nows the time to try and support each other and accept what we're given, those of us that still have a job at the end of this should be thankful that we can still go to work and get paid do something that we enjoy. After all, if you're in this game solely for the money you're in the wrong job.

[JRK]

I might well be opening a can of worms here, but this crisis could be the perfect opportunity for us pilots to uprise and get what we are worth. At the moment we are seen as just an asset, a cost that has to be paid to keep the planes in the air. As soon as the **** hits the fan, as we have seen with Covid19, the first to go are the staff. But if/when (and I very much hope when) everything returns to somewhat normal they will need us back in the cockpit quicksmart. If we can at least resist, argue what we are worth, how much we mean to airlines. This could be the best opportunity for pilots to get back what they deserve. Without us the planes will remain grounded. I'm not greedy. I have debts from flying school. Of which the unemployment benefit I will receive will only just cover the loan repayments. I've worked two jobs to cover it all until I became a FO and when I finally did,t wage I got was only slightly better than driving my delivery van around. I love my job, wouldn't change. But come on. We deserve better. Discuss-

Epic lack of understanding of how economics works...

[Emma Royds]

EK is moving the bar in the incorrect direction. Their pilots, who have complained about being underpaid already, are now going to be flying for 50% less!

Worth pointing out that it is a temporary measure.

[NoelEvans]

Epic lack of understanding of how economics works...
I fully agree. But from posts on several Threads, it appears that he is not the only one with that problem.

The greatest opportunity for pilots would be constructively working together on how to build the industry up again and recognising that without the industry you have absolutely no 'worth'.

[Cat1234]

Self education allowing diversification of income streams is the greatest opportunity during this enforced break. Industrial action during the recovery will be a disastrous career move however some will try, as always.

Edited for typo

[Stone Cold II]

Malkovitch, you’ve clearly never been involved in this industry when there is a crisis. The company will drop you without a second thought. Thousands will be looking for work and the pay will only be going one way....down.

[Easy Peasy]

Worth pointing out that it is a temporary measure.

seriously? It’s not temporary. It’s market driven. Pilots will be begging to keep current to fly anything. The world depression will last for the better part of a decade. Your flying career and mine as we know it are over.

[Meester proach]

One solution to tackle corporate greed and runaway executive pay/bonuses is a co-operative style of operation where the company is run for the benefit of employees and customers, not greedy shareholders and executives who care about neither. If you want to launch one, we'll all be right behind you. Sadly, co-ops suffer from a chronic lack of finance and funding because the banks always want a healthy stake before they hand over the cash.


venezualan airlines ?

[Whitemonk Returns]

Less of the catastrophic doom and gloom please, yes we are all personally going to take a financial hammering over the coming months but once this phase passes a new norm will emerge and it will involve plenty of flying once again. Hang in there, the recovery will be swift once it begins.

[macdo]

Build it and they will come.
People want to travel, or need to travel.
Once a vaccine is found the AI will kick in and the world stock markets will rocket.
Airlines that have survived will fill the gaps made by those that did not.
3 years passes and normal service resumes.
Indirect casualty may well be T&C's for Pilots.

[18greens]

Build it and they will come.
People want to travel, or need to travel.
Once a vaccine is found the AI will kick in and the world stock markets will rocket.
Airlines that have survived will fill the gaps made by those that did not.
3 years passes and normal service resumes.
Indirect casualty may well be T&C's for Pilots.

I think that is an accurate summary. Probably a similar recovery time to 9/11. The thing with recoveries are they are so insidious, they creep in and before you know it they have been there for 2 years. We will be back to worrying about Global warming and Brexit in no time.

[hec7or]

Probably a similar recovery time to 9/11.

Not too sure, 9/11 was a shock to the USA and to a lesser extent Europe. This one is global and includes the ME 3, China and the Pacific. I am sure the recovery when it comes will not be as quick, reflecting the worldwide shock to the financial foundations of nations, their airlines and the global economy.

[flightleader]

IMHO, many LCCs will go bust. Lots of pilots lost jobs, some unable to finance their own license currency and drop out of the market. Things will pick up gradually and probably back to the ‘normal’ after 18 months. Meanwhile, for those who are lucky enough to get back into flying have to take a 15% lower wage. Hang on to your trousers.

[pianopilot]

seriously? It’s not temporary. It’s market driven. Pilots will be begging to keep current to fly anything. The world depression will last for the better part of a decade. Your flying career and mine as we know it are over.

that so sickeningly pessimistic, how do you get up in the morning? geez, lighten up. there won't be a depression, but a recession. recovery will happen this year.

[pianopilot]

Less of the catastrophic doom and gloom please, yes we are all personally going to take a financial hammering over the coming months but once this phase passes a new norm will emerge and it will involve plenty of flying once again. Hang in there, the recovery will be swift once it begins.

thank you, I agree.

[18greens]

Also remember after 9/11 no-one wanted to fly, there was pressure on flying from global warming, Skype was becoming popular so no-one would need to travel again, businesses wanted to save money so logically capacity should have reduced and yet it just got busier than ever before.

[Superpilot]

Don't forget, projections from industry experts and manufacturers was for aviation to expand at least 50% over the coming decade. Thousands of aicraft on order to meet that supposed demand. OK, fine, screw the 50% expansion but to say aviation is not going to reach 2019 levels is absurd. It's a guess when though. Mine is personally on the 3-5 year mark.

[Private jet]

Build it and they will come.
People want to travel, or need to travel.
Once a vaccine is found the AI will kick in and the world stock markets will rocket.
Airlines that have survived will fill the gaps made by those that did not.
3 years passes and normal service resumes.
Indirect casualty may well be T&C's for Pilots.

I agree with all of this. There will be a slingshot effect. Ask people what they want to do more of if they have the opportunity and the answer is always travel. I don't know why, but they do, I suppose that is from the perspective of being a pilot aka "professional traveller".
Remember that central banks have injected hundreds of billions into the system to maintain liquidity and avert a total collapse of society. When normality resumes inflation will certainly rise because of this, so interest rates will have to rise, and taxes too in order to service the debt, but even so it will take a very long time for the central banks to take it back via bond interest/redemption and higher base rates. Business will be allowed to thrive because people need jobs to pay the taxes, the stock market (but less so the bond market) will bounce back and all will be good again. The big issue is which businesses can get through this extremely lean period and not all of them will. My advice; Sit tight, don't worry and ride out the storm in terms of both health and finance (your health is your wealth after all!)

[Hawker400]

I agree with all of this. There will be a slingshot effect. Ask people what they want to do more of if they have the opportunity and the answer is always travel. I don't know why, but they do, I suppose that is from the perspective of being a pilot aka "professional traveller".
Remember that central banks have injected hundreds of billions into the system to maintain liquidity and avert a total collapse of society. When normality resumes inflation will certainly rise because of this, so interest rates will have to rise, and taxes too in order to service the debt, but even so it will take a very long time for the central banks to take it back via bond interest/redemption and higher base rates. Business will be allowed to thrive because people need jobs to pay the taxes, the stock market (but less so the bond market) will bounce back and all will be good again. The big issue is which businesses can get through this extremely lean period and not all of them will. My advice; Sit tight, don't worry and ride out the storm in terms of both health and finance (your health is your wealth after all!)

The average Joe 6pack will never see any of these benefits in his lifetime. The employees suffering from this crisis are living paycheck to paycheck. Do you really think they will get a kick-start on life after this is over?

​​​​
Personally I think it will take a long time before the average person to have anything close to a safety net to be able to travel freely.
​​​​​

[RVR800]

Things will recover.

Q: Will this be a V or a U or a L shaped recovery?
Q: How soon?

Depends on CV19 resolution

Could be rapid if easy testing is available
Fuel costs are low and some aircraft will be available for lower prices.
Great for start ups
People will want to go away abroad when it picks up - pent up demand

No one knows what will happen. There are very uncertain times but there are some awesome scientists onto this - they will resolve this. ...

Have faith in them!!

Just trying to inject some optimism

[NoelEvans]

I fully agree with RVR800 and I especially like that last comment.

Things will pick up. They won't be the same. Live with that. The future is very seldom 'the same' as the past. Adapt.

Forget ideas of your "worth" or that you are paid for your "expertise" or your "responsibility". You are paid what can be afforded. If the business is a lot less, expect your pay to be less. Full Stop.

And when things pick up you will need a job. There are a lot of pilots to chose from. Having publicly posted that this "could be the best opportunity for pilots to get back what they deserve" might not be the best opening line to have with your job application. And "Age 40, Vlaams, F/O (probably with Flybe?), fairly recently qualified (still repaying the loan), drove vans for Morrisons" shouldn't take the likes of Mma Ramotswe too long to pick that application out from the pile. I really hope you do get a flying job, it is never good to see fellow pilots out of work, but the way you are going about it you may be driving those vans for a long time still.

[RexBanner]

Personally I think it will take a long time before the average person to have anything close to a safety net to be able to travel freely.​​​​​

Just as a point of order, how much of a safety net do you realistically believe people had before Covid-19 to afford their travels? The whole reason the whole economic house of cards exists in the first place is that people spend beyond their means. People have short memories, that’s unlikely to change after this. I mean I get the sentiment that there is unlikely to be spare cash around, but that’s just as true for the pre Covid-19 times as the post virus climate.

[Superpilot]

Just as a point of order, how much of a safety net do you realistically believe people had before Covid-19 to afford their travels? The whole reason the whole economic house of cards exists in the first place is that people spend beyond their means. People have short memories, that’s unlikely to change after this. I mean I get the sentiment that there is unlikely to be spare cash around, but that’s just as true for the pre Covid-19 times as the post virus climate.

Precisely. I've been trying to say that for days. Just couldn't find the words

[nonsense]

One solution to tackle corporate greed and runaway executive pay/bonuses is a co-operative style of operation where the company is run for the benefit of employees and customers, not greedy shareholders and executives who care about neither. If you want to launch one, we'll all be right behind you. Sadly, co-ops suffer from a chronic lack of finance and funding because the banks always want a healthy stake before they hand over the cash.

I'm a "greedy shareholder" in a completely different industry. The stock market is very good at allowing people to invest where they think they will get the best return on their money.
Why would I invest in an unorthodox co-operative unless it is going to give me a similar return on my investment?

Unless, as a working member of the coop, I have good reason to believe that it will do better than other investments (can you say "inside trading"?), or I am somehow emotionally invested in the service the coop provides (eg: a medical centre in a remote rural community which I live in), then I would be daft to put both my eggs (my investments and my employment income) in the same basket.

Like pilots trying to hold their employers to ransom during a period of dramatically reduced demand for their services, co-ops don't make any sense except in very special circumstances.