Peak Oil - seniority takes on a new meaning!!

[missingblade]

AKA we have bigger problems than a weak AOA:

In the entire world, there are perhaps a trillion barrels of oil left to extract — which may sound like a lot, but isn’t. When newspapers announce the discovery of a deposit of a billion barrels, readers are no doubt amazed, but they are not told that such a find is only 12 days’ supply. Nor are they told that all the big discoveries are far in the past. American production peaked in 1970, and even Saudi oil won’t last much longer. The production of oil is beginning a perpetual decline, while demand will continue to increase. The only event that could reduce demand for oil would be a global depression; reduced oil consumption would then be part of the overall collapse of the world’s economy.

And aviation along with it......

http://www.airliners.net/articles/read.main?id=81

Are you high enough on the seniority list to survive the downturn....?

[GA715]

omg omg omg omg. :hmm:

That article is over 2 years old.

When are we expecting the downturn?

[missingblade]

I guarantee you its going to happen before you even make it onto the bottom of the CX seniority list - if you really are 21.

[saccade]

Bush admitting that the saudi's may not be able to increase their production:

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4140859

The whole reason about the rise in oil prices is that the middle east is probably unable to increase production. And if the middle east has peaked, the world has peaked. At the end of 2007 EIA brought it's date for peak oil back from 2030 to 2016. Shell's ceo Jeroen van de Veer expects that world peak oil production is around 2015. These are the most conservative predictions.

The only way for aviation to survive is the availability of an alternative, but there is nothing yet despite a long period of research: (pdf)

http://www.icao.int/icao/en/nr/1979/pio197914_e.pdf

[DMN]

For what its worth. Article against Hubbert's peak oil theory.

http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2295/No_Peaking_The_Hubbert_Humbug

[Humber10]

was watching TV yesterday in my hotel rm.... CNN or BBC... yeah I have no life.
Report went on how, who ever it was was going to build a 180 million dollar refinery. Would you spend that money if oil were to run out tomorrow....
I think we have bigger problems with water.

[Flaps10]

Hubbert prestented his "Peak Oil" theory in the 70's and it's funny how every few months someone reads about it, allows paranoia to set in and prepares for the world as we know it to come to an end.

There is a lot of oil left in the world and we still have a lot of time to develope and refine techniques for the production alternative energy supplies. The only problem with our current oil supply is that the easy to extract and refine oil is running out. Most of the worlds remnaining reserve is oil that is harder and more expensive to reach and refine such as Canada's "oil sands" and the United States "oil shales". This oil costs a lot more to extract and requires complicated methods to refine into usable fuels. This along with fears propogated by the media and those who stand to benefit from it will continue to drive the price of oil to upwards.

The real problem for aviation is not the quanitity of oil left in the world but the cost of oil which will continue to drive the cost of flying up. How much the everyday joe is willing to pay to fly is yet to be determined. In my opinion aviation will be around for a long time to come but it may only be a luxury afforded only by the rich and big business.

We'll see which airlines will be left standing as the cost of doing business continues to increase. I bet we'll be around a lot longer than many of other airlines around the world. But really, who knows...

[throw a dyce]

The North Sea is a good example of recoverable reserves exceeding first estimates.When BP opened the Forties field,they reckoned in 20 years it would be dry.That was in 1975,but it's still going strong 33years later and there's about another 30 years left.This because new methods of extracting oil,and perhaps the estimates were a little conservative.Also a large number of North sea fields were plugged just after they were discovered because they were uneconomic to develop.However will Brent crude at $100 a barrell,it's a different story now.
The days of cheap oil are long gone.Consumption is going up with China and India using a lot more than a decaded ago.We should be looking at different energy forms of powering cars,fuel cells for example.We should be saving oil instead of wasting it.Perhaps the bus drivers in DB could switch off their engines when standing still.To save fuel,and never mind the a/c.

[A. Le Rhone]

....and stop pumping their accelerators on the freeway too.

If you need any other example as to why we need alternatives for oil and coal, simply look out of your HK window now. Can you see 50km?

[saccade]

was watching TV yesterday in my hotel rm.... CNN or BBC... yeah I have no life.
Report went on how, who ever it was was going to build a 180 million dollar refinery. Would you spend that money if oil were to run out tomorrow....
I think we have bigger problems with water.We will never "Run out of oil". In 200 years from now somebody will be pumping oil somewhere, but that is not the issue. The significance of the date of peak oil is that it is the latest point in time where supply can meet demand. After that, it's the survival of the fittest. And with $300 oil (assumption) a refinery is not a bad moneymaker.

Hubbert prestented his "Peak Oil" theory in the 70's and it's funny how every few months someone reads about it, allows paranoia to set in and prepares for the world as we know it to come to an end.You consider EIA, IEA ,Shell, ASPO, CERA, Energy Watch, etc, etc paranoia? They are the ones who predict peak oil within a short period of time. The Canadian tar sands won't help much to postpone this date, because they hope to increase the production from 1,1 today to 3 mb/d by 2020. In the same time world demand rises from 85 to 115 mb/d. But I agree with you that it has yet to be determined how much people are prepared to pay to fly.

The North Sea is a good example of recoverable reserves exceeding first estimatesThe north sea is also a good example of an extremely quick depleting oil source (-8%/year). Margaret Thatcher really liked the drilling and we drilled so much that the USA is again producing more than the north sea.

[saccade]

oops, today $99 again :bored:

[100hours]

today at $124 ... hmmmmm ... end of GA in sight soon ?

[sizematters]

abandon hope, all ye who enter here......................................................

[sioux115]

There is a very functional alternative for GA aircraft which is Ethanol. In South America it used quite frequently if not their main source of fuel. Can't say the same for JET-A though. Wasn't Branson working on something? I also read the US airforce just flew transcon. with completely synthetic fuel. Of course it will be highly classifed and the rest of the world probably won't see it.:ugh:

[413X3]

oil companies have admitted peak oil so leaving it just as a conspiracy theory is ridiculously incorrect

[fire wall]

quote ....."The whole reason about the rise in oil prices is that the middle east is probably unable to increase "......

What a load of crap.
FACT
52 weeks ago today the price of 1 barrell was USD $86.01
Yesterdays peak price was USD $123.93 (source www.oil-price.net)
Price per barrell is up about 70% on this time last year
Has the buying power of the USD depreciated by 70% .... NO
Has oil demand increased by 70%....NO
Has oil supply decreased by 70%....NO
So what has changed?
12 months ago is was estimated that approx 12% of all hedge fund money was in oil futures. Last week that number was estimated to be 35%.
Why?....... has anyone looked at the equity markets lately?

Try using the grey matter !

[MilPilot]

oil companies have admitted peak oil so leaving it just as a conspiracy theory is ridiculously incorrect


Not saying that's not the case, but of course oil companies want you to believe that. It's money down their pocket everytime they get to raise the price.

There are a lot of places where it is not cost beneficial to extract the oil until it reaches a higher price - also alternative energy forms are going to be a lot more attractive with oil at $200/barrel.

[avilababa]

hmmm,
at $200 a barrol I wonder how will have the the money to develop new energy sources, besides the oil companies.

[Apple Tree Yard]

$124 today

[100hours]

:ugh: :ugh: $126 today. Oil price has now increased by $10 this week alone ! := := not much more flying left for me if this goes on ... well done OPEC, USA, and all you investors investing in the oil and making the world suffer ... THANKS A DAMN LOT you bastards :D:D

[Kitsune]

If you carry on like that TOGA, you'll have the Mounties around looking for your supply of skunk.......:eek:

Perhaps it would be more apposite to worry about this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7389499.stm

[Caudillo]

Guys it's a barrel, not a barrol nor a barril. Basic stuff.

The oil price will ease by the end of the year, futures curves are showing decline, as are certain indicators of demand - in addition, capacity is due to increase shortly Also do note that while the price of the black stuff has risen, the cost has done to to a lesser degree.

If you're interested, you can invest in oil - and indeed many of its derivatives, via ETFS, both long and short. You'll find the price movements far outstrip those at the petrol pump. It's another bubble, as were dot coms, property, all the way back to the South Sea bubble. Profit from it rather than welcoming in the end of the world.